Regional Reit Share Discussion Threads

[skinny] 07/12/2023 14:39

High volume yesterday also.

[panshanger1] 07/12/2023 13:43

Some big trades going through here again today Looks as if someone is building a position?

[fordtin] 26/11/2023 10:47

This interview is over a year old, but still an interesting twist to the WFH story which could become more common as the planet continues it's progress toward the peak of the current interglacial period.

"In fact, I could say at BlackRock that we have more employees in in our London office since since Covid. And you know why? We have air conditioning in our offices and they don’t have air conditioners at home."

[arbus5000] 17/11/2023 09:55

2012-15 sounds like an upgrade compared to 20-22 !

[williamcooper104] 16/11/2023 18:42

Sure; doesn't stop loan to own though Offices are like retail in 2012-15 The cycle will turn; but there's a lot pain first

[arbus5000] 16/11/2023 18:35

wc, related party transactions must be conducted on arms length basis.

i'd call a bottom in the office market, most companies have returned to office 3-4 days a week.

[williamcooper104] 15/11/2023 15:37

On D for E and who would refinance the retail bond - loan to own PE fund comes to mind They'd take security on the property owning SPV shares and put in hair trigger covenants to enable to an easy pass of the keys

[williamcooper104] 15/11/2023 15:35

Yep they are non-recourse secured lending pools So the bonds are effectively junior loans

[arbus5000] 15/11/2023 12:00

The secured loans are issued by separate subsidiaries with their own covenants.the bond is group debt

[hindsight] 15/11/2023 10:14

return of the apeman, the retail bond has no assets tied to it. Its value is time being the first inline. Personally think the risk is priced but might end up with debt for equity offer

[return_of_the_apeman] 15/11/2023 09:37

Are the bank borrowings secured against the property assets? I am trying to work out where the unsecured retail debt is in the pecking order

Tia

[rcturner2] 14/11/2023 15:45

chucko, that sounded highly intellectual but I didn't understand a word of it.

[chucko1] 14/11/2023 14:59

10% is almost no more than "noise" on this one!

[cruelladeville] 14/11/2023 14:58

A bit of an exaggeration, but almost a Jekyll and Hyde swing in share price here today.

[chucko1] 14/11/2023 11:59

The RGLLN 4.5% 2024s are currently around 91.5 to yield around 17.5%. Mid-market.

The point made that there would be an inverted yield curve does, I think, refer to the shape of the CREDIT YC rather than the Gilt (or swap) YC.

In these circumstances, you would certainly have a very inverted curve, and much more attention needs to be paid to the price. That is 91.5 which is far away from doom. Some distress, yes, but as I see it, there is a fair chance of getting a new bond, say 4 years, away at an imputed price of 80 (relative to the 91.5 for 1 year). That implies an all-in yield of around 11% and perhaps a touch higher. If the market is bad for this and 70 is the imputed price, then nearer to 14.5% all-in yield, but I do not see it that way (yet).

Any change in the prospects of RGL will affect this, but that would be clearly signalled by a very rapidly decreasing price for the 24s.

Capping ~5yr credit spreads for performing (non-defaulted) credits at 1000bps is by no means a bad place to start. Sometimes depends on the specifics - is it financial, corporate, sovereign or agency etc. I can show examples of non-defaulted credit curves inverted by 2000bps! Everything has to be turned into a price before passing GO and collecting £200.

[spectoacc] 13/11/2023 20:08

If you're punting £60k to Edison to puff your shares, you're probably considering a RI IMO. Wouldn't be the first co to over-distribute and then ask for more back.

[williamcooper104] 13/11/2023 19:00

Yep there's going to be a price that they can but if that's so high as to be uneconomic then it's not really refinancable It's certainly not 10 percent given they'd pay c8 for senior secured

[hindsight] 13/11/2023 18:58

Edison were paid, mentions £60k in the small print, so whose the muppets

They should be able to refinance the unsecured bond, but the question is what will the interest rate need to be
RGL1 at 17%

[williamcooper104] 13/11/2023 18:39

Usually after a rescue rights issue is a great time to buy in The underwriters screw the company work the underwrite level to minimise their risk so often the share price rises substantially after

[arbus5000] 13/11/2023 18:25

i bought into HMSO around 20p and sold at around 26p, with the 10% extra shares instead of a dividend.

Its too painful for me to recall what happened with intu, but probably useful to apply lessons learnt here!

[williamcooper104] 13/11/2023 18:21

Good find And yet Edison think the unsecured bonds can be refinanced Total and utter muppets

[williamcooper104] 13/11/2023 18:20

Yes HMSO did that; I'm a bond holder But if you'd been in the common before the rights issue and share consolidation you ended up doing only marginally better than if you'd held Intu

[arbus5000] 13/11/2023 18:13

FYI

h ttps:// www.regionalreit.com/~/media/Files/R/Regional-Reit-V2/capital-raise-july-2019/prospectus.pdf

pages 165-7 has details of the covenants on the different loans as of July 2019, i think its mostly up to date.

The lowest LTV I see there is a LTV of 50% starting from some point in 2024. The loan from santander will have a coveneant decrease from LTV of 60% to 50%, which currently stands to be breeched....