Regional Reit Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 20/6/2023 10:04

I've seen before management not reducing the divi when obviously it's the right thing to do because they don't want to reduce what they get out on their personal shareholding RGL needed to cut before and with the prospect of higher rates there's just no debate now A cut won't murder the sp; and with higher gilts there's a ready made face saving excuse (Don't hold here but have tried to buy the 2024 retail bond)

[nickrl] 20/6/2023 09:44

RGL business model is fragile but not broken but needs cash for ESG and building improvements so need to cull the divi. The reduced share price gives them perfect cover to do at least 25% now and may actually put a floor under share price

[jpatara3] 20/6/2023 08:51

If you hold any property investment you need nerves of steel. In the current environment - high interest rates, high material and labour costs, companies will do well to keep their head above water. At least for the next two years, until we have a new norm. Consolidation and good management team are going to be key to survival. Third of my portfolio is exposed to this sector. I will keep adding until the bank stops raising rates and then I will stop adding to my current positions. I only buy during periods of high fear.

[cc2014] 20/6/2023 08:43

Overgeared

[panshanger1] 20/6/2023 08:25

Relentless here All time low ?

[skyship] 09/6/2023 15:57

CDV - OK - spat over - sorry for that - good weekend

[spectoacc] 09/6/2023 15:08

"By and large" is still sweeping @Skyship.

And if you actually read the RGL RNS, it says:

"The survey's results are based on an 82.2% response rate from the Company's office tenants across a wide geographic spectrum of the main regional centres of the UK and in aggregate account for over 24,000 employees. The key survey findings were:

· Employees have returned to the office for an average of 4.2 days per week"


Which you almost couldn't make up - only 82.2% responded. Where were the rest of them?

Even being generous (the ONS disagrees but the data's from late last year), nearly a fifth of days are being spent out of the office. Will vary hugely by sector/occupation/employer of course, but no one surely doubts increased WFH is a permanent feature now, aided by the rise of Zoom & Teams etc..

[cruelladeville] 09/6/2023 15:02

Thanks for your sarcastic response Skyship. It's unusual for you to post rubbish in these threads. I won't engage further with you on this one. I appreciate the positive things you bring to the community. But not your attitude to one particular sector of the working population is not helpful. I can equally point you to many useless lazy freeloaders in several large global companies I work with.

[skyship] 09/6/2023 14:51

CDV - Thanks for your sweeping generalisation response. Go read the RGL RNS - 4.2days/week returned in the private sector.

Go look at the passport office & DVLA stats.

Civil servants are by and large overpaid, overvalued and bone idle.

Over your apparent acquaintances told to return to the office - How many have done so?

[cruelladeville] 09/6/2023 14:12

That's not entirely true. I have relatives and acquaintances in civil service roles who vary. Some have been told they have to be in the office full-time. Some have been told they can suit themselves. And everything in between. I also see exactly the same in the private sector too within my own professional network. Sweeping generalisations seldom add much in the way of understanding to a discussion.

[skyship] 09/6/2023 13:46

WFH getting really interesting; though wholly unsurprising.

In the public sector ruled by the unions, employees relax at home doing nothing on full pay. S/b a National scandal; but so far they're getting away with it as Ministers too afraid they'll be accused of bullying!

[uapatel] 09/6/2023 11:01

Well, I’ve built a small position here recently (80K Shares) sub 53p Won’t be adding more for now. But this part of my income investments.

Hopefully I can see a good income return to offset the reduction in short term share price

Retired 10yrs ago, when I was a practising Architect (prior to working overseas) had alot of Large Commercial Clients (Fund Houses and Developers) looking at office conversions to Resi and or upping the offer for Corporation ie Google etc. offices may change/work practices too, but less new build will create opportunities for Re purposing and/or upgrading. As Cruella said that will reduce the quantity of viable office spaces.

Meanwhile I’ll keep with this share for now and see how it goes.

[spectoacc] 09/6/2023 09:53

Agree newbuild, but that which there is will be very high EPC/popular.

Much office-to-resi got done when George Osborne changed the rules to allow it. There's probably a little still to do, but conversions aren't necessarily cheap, and flats in most CC's seem overdone already.

I've no position in RGL but I'm not sure there's a price - or divi - at which I'd want to take it on. The LTV could improve if the "V" recovered.

[rcturner2] 09/6/2023 09:51

But office space is pretty flexible, plenty of offices can be converted to housing, which in many city centre locations is highly desirable anyway. There is very little new build of offices so we could quite easily see a tight supply before you know it.

[spectoacc] 09/6/2023 09:37

Love the notion it's really easy to be an ultra bear on RGL - maybe, if it traded at a tight discount and the divi was 4%.

It's yielding nearer 13%. Takes guts to bet against that - you'd lose on both borrow and an annual (for now) 13% hit, if short. (Which I'm not).

Inglis is full of it IMO - of course firms want people back to the offices they're stuck paying rent on. But recruiting staff in many industries requires flexibility on WFH, and as @nickrl says, it's the renewals where the hit will be taken. WFH is here to stay, the only question is quantum.

The far bigger elephant than some survey is whether the economy/office demand is going to increase enough to offset the WFH reduction in demand. If you think we're in for a steadily rising economy, that could well serve to offset WFH reduction, over time.

If you think we're in for recession/stagnation, then even without WFH & EPC changes, the LTV on RGL should bring you out in a cold sweat. Margin for error is small.

Time will tell.

[renewed1] 09/6/2023 09:23

Inglis has a big stake but it didnt stop him whacking the dividend a couple of years ago.

[nickrl] 09/6/2023 09:13

The death of the office was always overdone but he doesn't tells us this has translated into new lettings either or existing tenants have a had a rethink and aren't downsizing. Other surveys point to hybrid working being here to stay although exactly how that influences businesses view on space needs i dont know. What i see happening is a slow decline taking maybe 5 years before an equilibrium is found and at sometime RGL will have to cut the divi to which the share price may respond favourably.

[skinny] 09/6/2023 09:00

Assuming the figures are accurate, I'm tempted to add - although I'm currently down @40%.

[cruelladeville] 09/6/2023 08:56

My thoughts, I am tempted to believe Stephen Inglis more than market commentators. I think the concerns regarding RGL are justified but over done. Inglis and family have a large stake and making a future success of RGL is seriously in their interests. It's really easy to be an ultra bear on RGL.

[skinny] 09/6/2023 08:36

Said update :-

[cc2014] 09/6/2023 08:35

The RNS is non-regulatory, so shows as a different flag on ADVFN

[marvin tpa] 09/6/2023 08:16

Tempted to buy in here given the huge yield and the discount to NAV

Thoughts?

[rcturner2] 09/6/2023 07:57

There is an RNS out today, but advfn is not showing a flag for it.

[cruelladeville] 01/6/2023 08:53

Disappointing to see RGL flirting with a drop below 50p again, ex dividend though today.