Redde Northgate Share Discussion Threads

[bbmsionlypostafter] 03/12/2019 11:53

Redde announces merger with Northgate - we don’t get it

[prokartace] 03/12/2019 11:40

The thing i don't understand is why Redde is at a 10% discount to the combined share price 300p on Northgate implys 110p on Redde

[minerve 2] 03/12/2019 11:25

Absolutely right chaps. Stay clear.

Hey listen, if prospects turn out in line with the BS story then there will be plenty of time to buy back in!

LOL

[fenners66] 03/12/2019 11:23

And the talk is about halving the dividend yield here.......
so it will be a NO from me then...

[aleman] 03/12/2019 10:50

Why tie in with a heavily cyclical company as the cycle starts to turn down? NTG results were not very good. We're now being dragged down because of them. Reject the bid.

[blobby] 03/12/2019 09:48

I think the merger makes sense and I believe them when they say there are some synergies and economies of scale as well as cross selling opportunities.

I'm also surprised that the combined market cap has reduced, but I'd be amazed if this merger does not go through.

[ltcm1] 03/12/2019 09:12

Unusual to see a coherent bull argument on these pages.

I am simply doubtful because all Woodford's other investments cratered, a huge red flag given his lumpy bets on the likes of AA, PFG, KIER.

REDD also has a very dodgy looking chart, if you are on the sidelines like me there is no reason to dive in.

[riverman77] 02/12/2019 20:34

I think the market has overreacted here in a rather irrational way. I don't dispute that this is an uninspiring deal, but the combined market cap of REDD and NTG is now around 9% lower than it was before the announcement.

Surely at the very least the market cap of the combined business should equal the market cap of the 2 separate businesses. If you think there are synergies then the market cap should be higher.

While each of these businesses have their issues, I think this is reflected in their low ratings (both around 8x earnings after the recent falls). I'm probably the only one judging by the comments here, but I certainly won't be selling.

[ltcm1] 02/12/2019 18:24

Roger Minerve knows what he is talking out so you had better listen up.

[minerve 2] 02/12/2019 16:11

Company with falling ROE and falling ROCE with growing capital employed and large debt merges with company failing to generate any movement on NAV over the last five years, increasing working capital and increasing payment days on a no cash/zero premium deal.

Sell.

[fizzypop] 02/12/2019 15:41

Held since 2013. Sold with great sadness.

[rogthepodge] 02/12/2019 15:24

Avril stood down as chair of Redde, and might now be using her influence to try to boost NTG, where she is a director (chair?) now? Surely the institutions holding Redde (what's left of their shareholdings) won't be turkeys voting for Christmas?

[bc4] 02/12/2019 15:22

Could not agree more sold the lot on Friday at 113p

[sphere25] 02/12/2019 15:00

Price currently -4% down at 106.6p

Stock now trading below the Thursday close price, the day before the merger news. That's bearing in mind that the stock was already massively depressed by multiple overhangs.

You don't have to listen to anyone on these forums of course, but even Mr Market is telling you how bad this deal is. It is an absolute TRAIN WRECK of a proposal - NTG is literally dragging down REDD as I type. I can't stress enough to folk just how much more likely the possibility of significant returns are with REDD as a standalone entity, well out of the midst of NTG.

No position in here now, but I'd love to buy back REDD as the standalone recovery play that was beginning to bear fruit. Will common sense prevail? I don't trust institutional fund manglers. They could easily vote this one through - most of them really can't read markets at all well.

Going to be a damn shame if it goes through. I guess I will live in hope and see how things transpire.

Good luck folks! Luck, that's what it boils down to now.

[fizzypop] 02/12/2019 14:17

Martin Ward, CEO of Redde for 14 years, will take over the new company Redde Northgate as CEO with the immediate departure of the previous CEO at Northgate Kevin Bradshaw. I rate Martin so will also monitor developments.

[owenski] 30/11/2019 10:17

I didn't realise Avril was NED at NTG, recent appointment, I rate her so will watch how this transpires.

[aleman] 29/11/2019 17:47

IC review NTG results and move from BUY to HOLD. Says it all really. Those results might normally be worth a 10% price drop. Hire revenue growth is expected to weaken but the key is that a more subdued outlook usually means weaker resale values, and resale is where vehicle hire companies make most of their money after massive discounts on fleet sales purchases (Buy new at 40% off list price and sell in 12 months at 30% off list price). NTG looks to be at the top of its cycle, though lower fleet purchasing enhances cashflow (more sold and fewer bought) which will tend to push their debt back down again. NTG cashflow should be strong as earnings fall. I don't see it as a good merger for REDD shareholders, though. NTG shareholders will put their share price fall down to the merger news, as probably will some media commentary, but I think it would have happened on those results with no merger news. NTG is past it best in this economic cycle. Vote no to this opportunistic bid to get REDD on temporary weakness caused by an overreaction to one contract loss that has been compounded subsequently by Woodford woes.

[alamaison5] 29/11/2019 17:30

What do you think? Glad it went up, that's 4 sure

[rogthepodge] 29/11/2019 17:25

an opportunistic move by Avril? I wonder what Invesco thinks, and the substantial smaller institutional holders

[finkwot] 29/11/2019 17:09

So now in addition to Woodford and Invesco, we will have all the people who bought in for the AIM IHT exemption dumping their shares as NGT is main market.

I shall certainly vote against. The share price collapse earlier this year from the 160-190 range to the 90-120 range was always going to correct itself in time - that is why the current dividend return is so high. If they want it to come down to 6.5% all they need to do is offer more like 0.5 NGT per REDD.

[jam2day] 29/11/2019 14:39

OK got it - thanks

[minerve 2] 29/11/2019 14:34

jam

It is based on the assumption you are buying Redde shares today. I hope that helps. :)

[jam2day] 29/11/2019 14:33

So regardless of the share price divi is set at 6.5% ?