Record Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 31/3/2011 14:41

Wow - couldn't help but notice that REC hit yet another ATL @23p today ! When will this share price find a bottom ? At this rate there could potentially be a cheap MBO to end the ongoing misery.

So glad that I got out at 91p some 18 months ago, taking nearly a 40% hit at the time !

[142minty] 29/3/2011 14:10

tit

i am not so sure you are right .lets see what the next results/update bring....not good on AR product ,im talking dynamic hedging side.....

[titeuf_int] 26/3/2011 07:57

Hi all,

look at the graph guys and it is a shocking downward line since 2007 which is not quite encouraging.

The bad news is just accumulating...

[qvg] 18/3/2011 08:14

And more than 'ouch' for those of us who are invested in REC!
I think the key word that suggestes to me that this will not lead to a flood of similar fee reductions is 'tiered'. I understand this to mean that for this client the percentage fee now drops as AuM increases, ie they charge x% for the first B billion AUM, y% for the next C billion, then z% etc.
So as long as this client is massive compared to the others, then others should be way below even the first threshold. The numbers give some hope that this is the case. This client has 6.1 billion AUM, total AUM is 31.4 billion, and there are 93 clients. So average of the rest is just over 250 million.

[topvest] 17/3/2011 20:57

Ouch - a pretty disastrous RNS! Won't other customers be looking at this, contractual or otherwise? Fundamentally, I think REC are probably a nice business, but things are nowhere near levelling off, so happy to keep watching on the sidelines.

[142minty] 31/1/2011 08:46

Interesting article on Record /Carry trade in this weekends FT by John A./Long View. esp interesting was the graph showing returns and volatility between long term carry trade ( from 1993)FTSE FWB index thingie ( set up between Rec and FTSE) and FTSE Equities over same period


best

Minty

[142minty] 28/1/2011 15:51

the buying continues.....

[p bear] 27/1/2011 17:39

Yes, happen to know first hand it was tipped (and not for the first time). I'd love to post details, but the service provider (TMF) will likely have me removed.

I topped up just before it was tipped so feeling smug. A good buy at these levels - IMHO

[horndean eagle] 27/1/2011 11:26

Looks like REC has been tipped somewhere. Chunky amount of buying from the start this morning. Anyone care to enlighten us now that those in the know have probably already brought?

[mali7] 24/1/2011 09:13

£13,000 worth of shares bought by director?

[levr] 20/1/2011 15:14

adam

The Prospectus on the company web site contains a good introduction to their business - it's at the bottom of the list of reports:

[adam] 20/1/2011 11:17

I know it is something to do with currency, but what do they do really? are they currency brokers or currency hedge fund managers or what? Maybe that is the reason for the discount along with the over-sized holding of the man of Record.

[142minty] 20/1/2011 11:11

Numis have this a a BUY with current target at 42p ( as of yesterday).They suggests this looks very cheap at current price based on £18m cash and H1 revenues
Notably no divi reduction in 2011 but suggest there may be a cut in 2012 based on no new mandates and current position but then they say this could change radically if new mandates come in.This is obvious but they have based their forecasts on the company achieving no new business whatsoever and a reduction in AUME due to poor performance of AR

hope this helps

Minty

[masurenguy] 18/1/2011 15:27

You can never access broker notes on his site - I don't bother trying now as it's a waste of time.

[142minty] 18/1/2011 14:03

nellie

i cant get that broker note - who is it from Edison or Numis?

So we have AUME up by around 2% to $31.4b beating Numis's target of $30.1b - a pleasant surprise. Slightly intrigued ( due to performance)by the extension of a further $500m by one client in the AR product. $200m more through passive hedging and the intimation of further mandates in active hedging by next q2 2011. Obviously the $600m FX effect is significant.
We also lossed 10 customers ( not bothered by that)
Probably too early to get too excited but i have strong feeling we are going to see some new sign ups on active hedging which could be significant. Re the dividend we should remember that management can always adapt the bonus pool element for staff to enable a payment of decent dividends.This is a very cash generative business and im sure they will have to support a significant divi one way or another - perhaps not to the same extent as before but new mandates = more fees and the big accounts are and have been there throughout the strife.Feeling more positive now.This has got to be a very cheap entry opportunity now. I just want to see what this recent seller will do in the coming days....

Best

Minty

[nellie1973] 18/1/2011 13:23

Broker upgrade

[horndean eagle] 18/1/2011 08:15

Tide has turned for me. First increase in AUM for a while. If they can add a few clients and then report rising AUM we should see a marked increase in profitability. Hopefully today's interim statement will be the turning point.

[letsgetbizzay] 18/1/2011 07:12

Excellent results.

[topvest] 17/1/2011 19:55

An increase in AUM is highly unlikely, given recent trades. I will be watching closely though. I fancy investing here, but need to pick the right moment.

[shammytime] 17/1/2011 16:18

Last chance to get in before tomorrows results - Increase in AuME and it will also be interesting to see if there's any comment re: icap.

[masurenguy] 15/1/2011 12:24

Unless they have staunched the decline in AuME and their corresponding revenues then they will almost certainly have to cut the dividend. They have already flagged this possibility in their last interim statement since a yield of 14% is against declining revenues and profits is not sustainable. I think that the market has assumed this will happen and this is already factored into the share price.

"Board's intention, subject to satisfactory business performance and outlook, is to seek to maintain the dividend in the current financial year at 4.59p per share. The Board will review the dividend policy ahead of the year ending 31 March 2011 financial results in June 2011 to determine an appropriate dividend policy based on the prevailing business environment at that time."

The fundamental remain strong with over £20m in cash and a positive net cashflow of circa £9m in H1. Full year post tax profits should still be in the £8.5m - £9.5m range so what is really required to engineer a turnaround here is an improvement in their investment returns in order to first staunch the decline in AuME and subsequently to reverse this trend through improved performance. Hopefully the trading update might contain some indicators that there might be some light at the end of this tunnel !

[mali7] 14/1/2011 16:51

Fear has brought this one down, but the patient and brave one to top up now could be rewarded long-term...

Cash balance and div still supports these shares well, even if div cut a bit, yield at current level is very good, and potential with turnaround and improvement in trading will provide future re-rating. Good luck holders.

[shammytime] 14/1/2011 14:47

I'm hearing Tuesday's report will contain a few pleasant surprises. ICAP also sniffing around...

I'm topping up my holding at these levels - 90p per share buyout sounds good to me :-D

Roll on Tuesday!!

[142minty] 12/1/2011 16:58

i hope the update ( 18th january ) will have some positive news in terms of AUME.I'm expecting more bad news on AR product and good news ( by year end , poss now) on more dynamic hedging accounts. I think the share price has completely overreacted ex dividend and this now looks a good buy based on YE EPS of 4p.My gut feeling is that we could have another poor update this quarter but withsomething very positive to come hereafter.These sales are completely driven by insecurity over dividend.

best of luck and still not (too) worried !

minty

[masurenguy] 12/1/2011 16:18

There was a Q3 trading update on January 19th last year and on January 20th in the prior year, so I would expect to see one next on Thursday or Friday next week.