React Energy Share Discussion Threads

[colp54] 28/2/2014 15:00

I think they're just waiting to grow a few more trees before doing the deal...

[ryan83] 28/2/2014 14:56

I forget now it was so long ago, when was Enfield financial close due lol :-/

[ryan83] 26/2/2014 10:34

mini movement......

[troutisout] 25/2/2014 10:25

I know you could sell 7500 at 23p before the little sell at 23p, I just took another 25k, I am sure people will take that as a sell, which is why I posted about the offer price first.

Offer is now 24.95p.

Trout.

[ryan83] 25/2/2014 10:19

thats strange - as Halifax bid is 23p....very tight!

[troutisout] 25/2/2014 10:15

Anyone else noticed the buy price today?

Barclays have been offering at 23.2p all morning.

Trout.

[stockonomist] 24/2/2014 18:03

Ingenious to Funnel Half of IPO Proceeds Into U.K. Solar Assets

By Louise Downing Feb 24, 2014 1:28 PM GMT

Ingenious Media Holdings Plc, an investor in films such as "Life of Pi" and "Avatar," plans to channel more than half of its planned 160 million-pound ($266 million) fundraising into U.K. solar assets.

[ryan83] 18/2/2014 12:40

Allrise,

I asked them explicitly how the three phase program at Newry is going.

Phase 1 2MW = Fully operational
Phase 2 additional 2MW to 4MW = Told to refer to recent announcement where Ulster Bank confirmed their support for Phase 2 subject to certain conditions
Phase 3 Planning for upto 8MW = The team are currently working on this.

[allrise] 18/2/2014 11:11

My understanding is that from funds drawdown, it would take 12 months to get the second 2MW installed and operational in Newry. But for me, that's best-case scenario. As far as I know, the first 2MW isn't yet yielding any revenue - the technology is not widely used, and has caused major problems getting it "optimised". Enfield is not due to use the same technology, but is due to use more widely used, tried-and-trusted systems/technology. By the way, I too cannot believe the lack of communication from them re Enfield - given that in late '13, the announcement was imminent.

[ryan83] 18/2/2014 10:23

Fully agree colp!

This financial close is taking ages - I hope once its done the company increase their visibility in the market. Good question regarding Newry too - I did ask via email but they wouldnt say.

[troutisout] 18/2/2014 09:53

I just get the feeling that Enfield is the main focus for everything, when they finally close all the financial and other contracts on Enfield we will see a lot more from the Company.

On another point, Newry, this from the last results,

"Following the formal commissioning hand over, the Group has been focused on completing various tests and reports required by Ulster Bank Ireland Limited in connection with the drawdown of debt facilities for Phase 2 of the project for an additional 2 MW.

The bank's technical adviser, Mott McDonald, have completed their report and submitted it to Ulster Bank for their approval. The Group is currently in discussions with Ulster Bank regarding this report and the timing for the drawdown of facilities for Phase 2.

The electricity generated by the plant is being sold to Bord Gais Eireann under a Power Purchase Agreement ('PPA').

The civil and on-site works for this additional 2MW have already been completed

and a deposit has been paid to secure the expansion of the grid infrastructure for the project."

So now the question, if the civil and on-site works have already been completed, how long would it take to get the second phase online and producing?

Trout.

[colp54] 18/2/2014 09:25

REAC have a good story to tell, but currently seem to be turning an open goal into an own goal with their approach, or rather a complete lack of an approach, to any form of investor relations. Not unique on AIM I guess, but the management seem to think there's a disconnect between investor relations and the share price/cost of finance etc.

[ryan83] 18/2/2014 08:56

thanks stock - decent write up.

[ryan83] 17/2/2014 20:48

Yep unloved off the radar..BOD doing a good job with the PR not. One day lol

[197300] 17/2/2014 20:38

If it falls by 15% on 20k volume I might buy 40k tomorrow and on that basis should rise 30%!

[troutisout] 17/2/2014 19:00

The UT trade on Friday has kicked out the data on the charts and all the sites have us as 4.5p down, we were in the toplosers list today.

The MM's computer programmes were fooled a little as well early on and they were offering 25k at 24p. I looked at it twice and tried to see what the catch was and then when I went to buy them they had increased it back to 25.1p.... DOH!

Anyway this is very unloved at the moment and the BB has got very quiet. Good to see Wexboy follow up his previous thoughts on REAC and that together with other research still makes this a good buy at these levels.

DYOR,

Trout.

[troutisout] 17/2/2014 18:51

Hi Wexboy,

Thank you for your update, here is some figurework that I did a few weeks back, I don't think we are miles apart with our thoughts. Again fundraising for the Company may be holding the share price back, but if they get financial close for Enfield soon then the situation should be far more positive and people will start to look at their other Biomass sites and see the potential roll out.


troutisout 23 Jan'14 - 12:48 - 195 of 269 0 0 edit


ryan83,
I said that I have been looking into the valuations of renewables projects and have struggled to find much on biomass projects, but have read this and thought I would dig it out again to discuss, it is from 2010 (and in euros)and deals in solar and wind generation, I would think biomass rates as high if not higher than solar, due to the lesser reliance on the weather and a more stable fuel source.



Now I don't pretend to understand all the equations, but from what I can see they give a basic valuation for assets as follows,

Wind - late stage - under construction - installed.
€/MW.....0.4m...........0.8m...............1.2m

Solar - late stage/under construction - installed.
€/MW..............0.2m.....................4m

There is no valuation given for early stage and pre-planning projects.

From this and looking at recent info we have,

Newry 2MW = €8m + €0.4m
Newry 4MW = €16m

Depending on whether the 2nd phase is now generating, we have two possibilities as above, however remember we only hold a 50% equity in Newry assets.

Puckanes 0.8MW = €0.96m

Altilow 0.5MW = €0.3m

Moneygorm 0.5MW = €0.3m

I have split the difference between late stage and under construction as they should soon be under construction.

Enfield 12MW = €2.4m

Again expect a 50% equity holding.

Looking at the above and depending on Newry's status we have between €7m and €10.7m in assets as they stand.

As can be seen the upside can be increased dramatically when these projects come online and can be valued as such (Enfield would be huge €48m/2 when installed).
Also we have to take into effect the income being generated from these assets, Newry return to the company is over 90% of revenues.

We also need to take into account outstanding loans and debts, the fact that additional capital is likely to be needed and raised.

There is a growing portfolio and these also must have some residual value even though they are early stage.

This year will be very busy and if they can keep to targets then the shift in value will be noticeable.

DYOR,

Trout.

[ryan83] 11/2/2014 23:37

There is no heat offtake agreement in place for the Newry Biomass project as the project is configured as primarily an electrical generation plant. Options for the waste heat from the plant may develop in the future with the construction of an industrial park in lands adjacent to the plant.

[ryan83] 11/2/2014 23:14

Well the consolidation was essentially to lower the ord. value of the shares so I would say that issuing paper for acquisitions is a certainty. Let's hope they start to reward long termers!!

[troutisout] 11/2/2014 19:44

That could be due to lack of a nearby customer for the heat, Enfield has some options for the heat offtake.

Still waiting on the Enfield Financial close, I didn't think it would have taken so long, after the last RNS.
I suppose they are getting all the contracts completed and signed at the same time.

What are people's views on an acquisition? They have said they are looking at some possibilities.
They would need funds to acquire anything, unless using paper and at this price that would be wrong. So fundraising, with FBD at such a large percentage already
how would they do it? Any dilution would be felt by them.

I am not sure what to think on funds and whether more will be needed to accelerate the development of their pipeline. The valuation again looks very miserly, but they need to get some of these projects back on track, timescales are slipping and that isn't a good thing. They seem to be very quiet about progress and I hope that is because they are busy getting on with it.

Was out all day but got back home just before the close and got some more at sub 25p. They don't like selling shares to the market and have been very stingy with the recent quotes I have got (especially when they are taking sells well below the bid). So still a case of averaging the buys in over a period of time.

Trout.

[ryan83] 11/2/2014 19:01

Actually they did confirm there is no heat off take at Newry