Reabold Resources Share Discussion Threads

[simonsaid1] 23/7/2018 11:46

The key is that once a drill strikes, not only does its NPV get added to the share price, but also a multiple becomes appropriate, given that producing or proven assets typically command a premium-to-book for the parent company's shares. It's a steep part of the value curve because it goes from valuing the asset as NPV minus risk, to NPV plus premium. This is why Reabold acquires assets at such a late stage before production.

This is also why only a few of Reabold's projects need to be successful to send the share price much, much higher. There is no need for a 100% strike rate, just one or two would be company-making. A higher strike rate would be something else entirely.

Given most of the assets have production or appraisal data already for various reasons, this is all eminently achievable.

[ileeman] 23/7/2018 11:37

Another top up this morning, couldnt resist.

Drill starting next month will be suprised if this isnt over 1p by then. Multiple low risk drills over next few months all low risk I dont think 2p+ will be far behind.

[duckdown] 22/7/2018 11:00

Agreed showme01.

I'm in both RBD & I3E and the next 12 months or so should be very exciting for both companies.

Good luck to those trading in and out.

[showme01] 22/7/2018 10:46

Agree both i3e and RBD look to have huge potential. I will probably switch around a bit. Nearly all my money is in i3e atm as funding news will land any time and should see a 100% rise imo. Will look to switch some into RBD as it will be a busy H2 of 2018 with drilling. 2019 and both i3e and RBD will have plenty going on. Most of my money will stay in i3e for 2019 as it has a lot less risk with still huge upside. Reserves in place and a huge reserves upgrade hopefully. RBD has a mixture of very low risk projects and some with a higher element of risk. Both BoD in these companies impress me and I'm sure will be several multiples from here by the end of 2019.

[jungmana] 21/7/2018 12:51

Divmad, yes my timing was off a bit in switch to rbd but i3e has near doubled since. Anyway I think rbd' s time to shine is near.This now is my largest oil holding.

[divmad] 21/7/2018 12:10

Jungmana,

"Soul , i bought upl at 1.7p average and sold (in 3 trades) about 2.5p average.
Invested the money into rbd and i3e.
Upl will need to raise more cash soon"

March 6th.

Timing off a bit on the UPL/RBD switch. Why don't you hold some of each? Class management in both.

[jungmana] 21/7/2018 11:26

is there a more exciting company to hold over the next 6 months? thanks for posting the link, second time watching. fully loaded with rbd and i3e.

[simonsaid1] 20/7/2018 16:32

I spoke to Stephen Williams who was quite certain Gaelic has not been selling.

Likely just bored PI's or leftover placees from the last placing.

In any case it's moving freely now.

[ileeman] 20/7/2018 15:25

Interesting, perhaps just left over placees from February.

[divmad] 20/7/2018 15:23

According to Simonsaid after the evening presentation, Gaelic was not the seller of those 100mn+ shares.

[theaviator] 20/7/2018 13:34

Mine too mate. Yep we can rise now without the need for any pills.

[ileeman] 20/7/2018 11:07

The overhang that we saw over last few weeks was from the 105 million gaelic aquisition shares that were not locked in. That has now cleared, very hard to buy now.

fwiw added yesterday at 0.7p I dont think this will be below 1p for long. 2-3p end of year is my target.

[oilbuy] 20/7/2018 10:02

Breaking resistance

[ltinvestor] 20/7/2018 09:26

Overhang cleared?

[steve73] 20/7/2018 05:24

from 1:05..

[dandadandan] 19/7/2018 21:36

Agree . Well done the S&S team.

I also agree that the undervalue of Oil assets cycle will correct itself especially as the brexit GBP could flounder for now and the dollar gets stronger.
Where are the Cable workover 'guys and gals....'.
Get your next deals completed, sooner rather than later, S & S.

The next two quarters are going to get interesting.

It is time to make some money, IMO.

Tick this UP.

GLA.

[ileeman] 19/7/2018 17:45

Great listen on the recent presentation RBD done.

He seems most excited about Parta, an asset not many people talk but I am sure they will soon enough.

[simonsaid1] 18/7/2018 16:31

Hi Divmad.

As they have said in many interviews, they still have more good opportunities presenting themselves than available capital to pursue them all. So clearly the cycle is still in the sweet spot right now.

Additionally, as Stephen Williams put it last night, "if the cycle corrects itself our assets will all have found their true value and we'll have made people a lot of money, so we'll return cash to shareholders and shut up shop" (note: only as accurate as my memory!).

I think you're right that it won't take a massive amount of time for the cycle to correct, but that's to Reabold's enormous advantage because they have already got exposure to a lot of projects and will likely get in a few more while the going is good. That alone will be enough that if just a couple of them are good hits, the company is made. And if the cycle does correct that quickly, the result will be the company paying the money on to shareholders, which sounds rather marvellous to me.

He was very clear that they don't expect this company to be around forever, that's not the point of this. It's a cyclical play to take advantage of a special situation, both in the market and in the contacts and career histories of the CEO's (see my LSE posts).

[divmad] 18/7/2018 16:21

Thanks for your reply, Simonsaid.

I'm still thinking about this exit strategy of theirs.

Of course it makes eminent sense and if they can pull it off, we all benefit greatly.

But what if...this peak of cycle is nearer than we all think? After all, the POO is $80 or so, and has been rising for a few years, allowing N Sea assets to be sold on by the majors exiting, to a new bunch of entrepreneurially-run juniors and mid-sized AIM cos over the last year. RRE, SQZ, HNL, i3E, PMG, to name but five.

I suppose we haven't had any speculative, hostile or even friendly takeover attempts yet, at or near NPVs so that would say we aren't close yet. But I venture to say we are already half way up the slope to realising full value in this sector.

[gibso6767] 18/7/2018 16:12

re selling out ,mmm our shareprice hasnt ever reflected anywheer near true value due o cash at hand never been in the price ,so uncertain why this has happened

[simonsaid1] 18/7/2018 11:52

Indeed Divmad. Somebody actually pitched Stephen that exact question on how they'd know the moment to get out. The gist of his response was that they are veterans of this sector (junior resource companies) and they evaluate each deal very carefully, so when there aren't good prospects popping up anymore and their assets are all showing significant gains, that will show the cycle has moved on and that's when they distribute cash back to shareholders and shut up shop.

[divmad] 18/7/2018 11:37

So, according to Simon on the other bb, RBD bod will sell out at the top of this cycle.

That presumes they know how to spot it, and how to sell assets in bulk before the top rather on the slippery slope down. But gla. Makes a tantalising sales pitch.

[croasdalelfc] 18/7/2018 08:32

https://twitter.com/silolondon/status/1019336207963250688?s=21

[theaviator] 17/7/2018 17:10

Yep I read that. Good stuff. Should be more than good by year end I should think.