Ramsdens Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 26/2/2024 09:49

The dividend is higher than that.

[lammylover] 26/2/2024 09:44

BaseM1 - RFX has never been rated a "growth stock", although it has grown (revenue up 27% in last year) and will continue to grow, albeit slightly slower!

The key metrics here are:

Market Capex at £1.80 = £56.97m
Net cash = £5.039m
Pre tax profit = £10.1m
Dividend = 10.1p (5.6% yield)

So if you were wealthy enough, you could buy this business, and it would pay for itself in about 5 years!!!!

A screaming bargain - we just need to wait for the 2 funds who are selling / closing to clear their positions and share price will rise again. Unfortunately many Private Investors have sold their positions at rock bottom prices, due to fear that there is something amiss.

The only risks here in my opinion are
a) People no longer buying high end watches (we've seen this with WOSG), but we know people bought cheaper watches / jewellery instead.
b) Higher energy costs (not coming down) and higher minimum wages - both recognised by the Board in their RNS updates.
c) Gold price dropping if conflict in Gaza / Ukraine cease, hopefully.

Against that there are loads of positives
a) Demand for pawnbrokers
b) RFX have added more shops including in S East and moved to better parts of towns when leases came up for renewal, for better footfall.
c) More people travelling abroad should increase demand for FX
d) No debt, profitable business with good dividend. I see this as the type of business that small investors will pile back into when the BoE drop base rate and banks / buildings societies drop savings account rates.

[basem1] 25/2/2024 17:31

I have always been a fan of this stock but I am afraid to say it is now ex growth I know a couple of fellow holders and they think the same I will watch with interest to see how the next 12 months figures pan out. Good luck to all longs

[lammylover] 23/2/2024 11:47

The Chancellor will address this in the Spring budget (6 March)in my view. He's got to fire up London again to stop firms being listed elsewhere and to restart IPOs that generate income for Bank, brokers, lawyers etc. We know the huge tax and wealth generated by the City for the UK economy, compared to the rest of the UK.

I'm expecting either a cut on the stamp duty to buy shares to zero; and / or a "UK listed company ISA" that either allows you to put more in than £20K a year. This will get private investors putting money back into UK and AIM.

He alternatively may cut the allowance for ISAs invested in firms listed outside London; lets face it why are we giving tax breaks for investors, investing away from the UK?

[hpcg] 23/2/2024 10:18

No one can invest on the basis of a special dividend. This "All they seem to do is allow sellers more liquidity to sell" is a feature not a bug. Firstly it gives everyone confidence that if they buy then they can always sell tomorrow. Secondly, its what we are experiencing now. There is a large seller. There are few buyers because shares with negative momentum are extremely unattractive. It is part of the reason the London stock markets is dying and every couple of weeks another company announces it is leaving.

[lammylover] 23/2/2024 09:39

Personally I'm not keen on share buybacks. All they seem to do is allow sellers more liquidity to sell, and to improve the EPS for the Directors to get better bonuses. They hardly ever seem to improve the share price.

I'd much rather have special dividends, if there is cash to spare or pay off debt where companies have debt (obviously not the case with RFX)

As I've said before, its just a waiting game. When joe public sees the UK economy improving and bank interest rates start to drop as base rate falls, they will return to shares looking for better returns.

[yump] 23/2/2024 09:35

Nvidia will get overblown once everyone is talking about it. Just like the dotcom bubble.

[hpcg] 23/2/2024 09:16

Lammylover, riverman - I agree. We had a snap shot of almost current trading a month ago, and it chimed with other things we know in the market, for example watches struggling. There isn't hidden information that someone in the market knows. On the other hand we do know that micro cap funds are closing and the likes of Nvidia are absorbing a huge amount of investment capital from around the world. This being the case cash generating, dividend paying companies will need to alter their returns model, reduce the dividend and divert some to share buybacks.

[lammylover] 23/2/2024 07:26

Absolutely 100% agree riverman - Same thing happened at MEGP, with Fidelity selling off their MEGP shares and driving down the share price 35%. Then results are published (exactly as per trading update and guidance a couple of months ago) and the share price lifts 20% in a day and everyone wants to buy in!

The reality is that there are few private investors buying AIM at the moment, either haven't got cash; putting money into building societies paying 5% interest or just scared about UK economic climate.

And that pretty sad really, as there are loads of absolute bargains to be found; great small companies producing record results, but unloved by the general public.

Of course, once it becomes clear that the UK economy is growing again and the funds start to buy again, joe public will also get involved - but by then the bargains will have gone..

[riverman77] 22/2/2024 20:12

Possible but very much doubt it - don't assume the market knows everything and that every move has a rational explanation - certainly not in the UK small cap space. Far more likely it's due to a combination of forced selling from funds and panic selling from clueless private investors, and not enough buyers able to mop it up. The fact is there are very few natural buyers of UK small caps in the current environment.

[doobz] 22/2/2024 20:04

It’s very cheap, but to the point I’m wondering if the market knows something I don’t now

[lammylover] 22/2/2024 14:02

Added more at £1.75 BARGAIN!!

[pugugly] 21/2/2024 08:52

Romford 5 miles from Ilford

[lammylover] 21/2/2024 08:49

Don't think so Pug, market makers ticked price up at end of yesterday and ticked price down with U/T at start of today. More buys than sells today. Its just the 2 funds in the background, trying to close funds etc, that are acting as a handbrake on RFX.

[pugugly] 21/2/2024 08:36

Moving down - Could this be a reaction to H&T moving into their territory - so more competition? (H&T rns today - Acquisition)

[lammylover] 19/2/2024 12:12

427,830 shares gone through at 186p
I'm expecting to see Holding RNS soon that big seller is out..
Share price should recover then.

[yump] 16/2/2024 11:21

“ Of course, by the time they pile in (either directly or via funds) the real bargains will be gone..”

So true. In the end, when its all a bit grim and not stock-specific, that is the time to buy. Always has been in the past. Many other EU and Asian markets are off the bottom or have risen off a flat period. Funds will be looking for the next market to recover.

Certainly no wealth managers would be recommending stocks to clients while the share prices look bad. Once they’ve risen a bit and the pundits say the worst is over, they’ll all pile in.

O/T same with all sorts - when bitcoin was in its “winter”, it was labelled as a silly token like tulips, although gold is also a token. Meanwhile anyone who bought then has more than doubled their money in a short space of time.

[lammylover] 16/2/2024 10:34

Its just a waiting game..

The general public will pile back into UK shares as the year progresses when they realise how cheap they on P/E multiples..
a) After budget on 6th March (especially if Chancellor starts a UK Isa in which you can put more money and / or cuts stamp duty on share purchases.
b) When base rate starts to fall - probably May for first reduction in base rate. People will be seeking higher returns on their savings.
c) General election in Autumn; feelings of positivity..
d) As its clear that the economy is improving, inflation under control, GDP growth.

Of course, by the time they pile in (either directly or via funds) the real bargains will be gone..

Hence I'm heavy on UK stocks and will continue to add where there is weakness for no apparent reason other than lethargy

[hpcg] 16/2/2024 10:25

Move their listing to the US.

[tp6] 16/2/2024 09:46

Good profits, little or no debt.What does a company have to do these days lol..

[lammylover] 16/2/2024 09:23

yump - I guess the real issue here is that there don't appear to be any other IIs picking up the slack.

You'd have thought another fund would have been happy to buy these at 35% discount to year high price, after record profits..

However it looks like we are in for a long slog of waiting for PIs to take up the slack, while our II has a never ending supply of 9k blocks to sell

[yump] 16/2/2024 09:01

Funny how people get excited about ii’s buying into their favourite stocks, without seeing the potential downside of them top-slicing or selling out later.