Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[snowydays] 07/3/2012 09:00

cfro, on what planet do you think the markets might assign a PE of 10 to a company with just one mine, and a mine with perhaps just a six year productive lifefespan? The feasibility study conducted by Rambler on the Ming mine suggested a six year productive life producing cashflow of $14m a year and $70m over the life of the mine. On that basis the NPV of the mine is significantly less that the current market cap.

Those are very conservative figures, based on lower metal prices and not taking account of further discoveries. For a high cost producer higher metal prices will increase profitability dramatically, and the mining of lower grade ores will allow a longer life. Realistically the mine may produce for 15 years and produce several hundred million dollars of cashflow. On that basis maybe there is scope for a rerating if they actually get going with long term copper production, which remains to be seen.

By the way, do posters here realise that the current gold production is probably limited to 7,000-8,000 ounces before the ore runs out, and that a quarter of the gold produced goes directly to Sandstorm under the terms of the gold loan. Rambler is not yet a long term producer.

[prem124] 07/3/2012 08:57

I guess TINMA like all other investors wanted to buy in before the rerating occurs which they must believe was due soon otherwise they would not be pushng for the deal to be done now.

[timberwolf3] 07/3/2012 08:30

Cash is king, Tinma have cash and plenty of it, lots of opportunities for Rambler now to expand and expand quickly now funding isn't an issue.
Ideal time for Rambler and the shareholders isn't the same time for Tinma, at the end of the day, themanagement obviously didn't want this opportunity to pass them by, so they have taken it.
short term pain long term gain, if the share price stays low until April my ISA will be getting loaded with RMM again.

[sporazene2] 07/3/2012 07:33

in the long term, this can only be good in terms of access to tocapital for the LFZ...but why not wait until copper production commemces, this is stated for fiscal Q3 (by end of April if ye is July), this would have surely meant a higher SP

[timberwolf3] 07/3/2012 06:56

Thanks forposting Manic Miner's post randombutton,

As an investor and not a trader in RMM, i am happy to see TINMA on the register, after all they will still be an investor in a few years time , unlike many on this board.

[hellisreal] 07/3/2012 01:14

Rambler is significantly undervalued. George also says that

the
company
is
well
funded
and
does
not
anticipate
any
need
for
further

cash.,,,,,"

Snowey good post. Lot of truth to what you say,for those who are watching.

Todays share price says it all. Looking for 28p

[saucepan] 07/3/2012 00:29

Dukedosh: thanks for the 'chapter and verse' reference of what I distinctly recalled George Ogilvie saying. It was one of the reasons I invested in Rambler and hence why I felt somewhat annoyed about today's development - particularly the principle of saying one thing and then doing another. That does not command my trust or respect. I substantially reduced my position today, keeping only some shares I hold in an ISA.

[dukedosh] 06/3/2012 21:32

I fully understand investors frustration which is totally justified when you consider our President's very own words in his interview of May last year. Note the last line, ".....George also says that the company is well funded and does not anticipate any need for further cash.....".

Investors rarely welcome unexpected dilution. I sold on this news but I'll be looking to buy back in at the same price as the Chinese, or lower with luck, in this mad market correction. Typical AIM company tactic, one which is all to often used. Say one thing do the opposite.



".....George Ogilvie, President and CEO at Rambler Metals and Mining (LON:RMM), tells Proactive Investors that in the current climate, and with the potential of the assets under ownership, Rambler is significantly undervalued. George also says that the company is well funded and does not anticipate any need for further cash.,,,,,"

I am intrigued by this deal struck with Tinma, but I remain very cautious and not so convinced it is the great deal everyone says it is, until the company explains in more detail.

The use of the proceeds states as general working capital and feasibility study of LFZ. Should we now be concerned that the company have again under estimated the capex and cash burn to copper production for a second time?

There's got to be more to this deal, there must be, including more fund raising to expand the business and the resultant dilution to look forward to, if I'm reading this right. We need to see what upside there is for us then we can get a handle on it, get comfortable with our new partners or not.

For me the Jury is still out, more questions than answers.

[rrr] 06/3/2012 21:23

This sounds just the thing to me, great alliance.

[asong] 06/3/2012 19:04

excellent deal by the management raising money and having a partner like Tinma.
as soon as the price settles down I will be adding to my stake.

[timberwolf3] 06/3/2012 18:45

common sense at last prevails.

[cfro] 06/3/2012 18:31

Agreed redhill. I really dont know what the hell some of you guys are moaning at. The deal with Tinma looks to me to be a cracking deal for BOTH parties. Its not often you get deals in this sector to the benefit of both, thats for sure.

Its obvious that Tinma are going to want a little discount, why not?

This looks to me like a very strategic move for both of us. What we have are two fold: first more cash to advance the Ming mine and quite possibly make one or two shrewd investments as well, and second a route to market for our copper and probably some of the Gold too.

Basically there will be another 10 million shares in issue. So what!??.....in the great scheme of things that is peanuts. Looked at in this way if we get to £1 a share then instead of a market cap of £124M.....we would then have market cap of £135M.

What real difference is that?

Another way to look at it is by the eps estimates. Instead of roughly 28p we would do say 25p. Put a forward PE of 5 and you get target share price of £1.25 or PE of 10 equals £2.50.

Im sure that Chip will re-work his forecasts after the dillution and there wont be an awfull lot of difference.

Just to reiterate, importantly what we have is the cash to advance the mine. We will have very soon have...imo.... a world class mining operation in one of the safest mining jurisdictions in the world. Im personally very excited about prosects here.

[redhill] 06/3/2012 17:13

Obviously snowydays has no idea how difficult it is to raise money for expansion in this current environment and i thought they had actually paid a decent price for the stake.

[timberwolf3] 06/3/2012 17:00

Some posters haven't a clue ,not a bloody clue !

[snowydays] 06/3/2012 16:04

Let's face it. There is a reason why RMM seems to have a low valuation, and we have seen a good example today. The directors of Rambler have no intention of ever making any money for the shareholders, who are just the mugs that put up money for exploration.

Now that there is a chance of moving towards profitable production the directors will either dilute the existing shareholders (mugs) into obscurity, or they will strike a deal with an established mining company for the development of the mine. Any such deal will be on terms that are bad for existing shareholders, although the directors might end up with lucrative consultance roles with the mining company.

I bought into RMM a few weeks ago because it looked as if this company might be different. It looked superficially as if the company might be prepared to develop the mine from cashflow for the benefit of shareholders, but as we see today that is not the case. These AIM exploration companies all see to be the same, they see shareholders as mugs to be exploited not investors to be rewarded.

[wolterix] 06/3/2012 15:59

chart is making a megaphone shape

[hellisreal] 06/3/2012 12:23

What is projected oz of gold production this year?

[dukedosh] 06/3/2012 12:20

In time honoured fashion, no doubt this share price will drop to the 28p placing price before it has any real chance of advancing. There's no doubt this is fully justified for the long term growth plan but this PI is bitterly disappointed with the placing price here.

[gardenboy] 06/3/2012 11:11

so I make that 135,242,228 shares from 16/3/12 - updating header

[chipperfrd] 06/3/2012 10:56

The real kicker was the use of 90 day VWAP to 14th Feb, because the share price had been languishing in late 2011. Presumably Tinma played hard ball over the price. But at least there are no broker fees or warrants as is so often the case with Canadian placings.

RMM are in a period when they need all the cash they can get in order to bring the Ming copper into production. Presumably they have calculated that things were looking a bit tight and felt forced to accept ready cash now rather than risk a brokered placing if they ran things to the wire.

Longer term I really like the look of the possibility of upgrading the production facilities to 4,000tpd as the projected revenue from the footwall zone would be mouth-watering!

But first they have to start producing concentrate this year from the high-grade zones and get the revenues flowing. So a bit more dilution now is acceptable if it enables both the short-term cash flow in 2012/13 and the longer-term prospect of heading into a BFS, funding and construction of a meaningful bulk operation on the LFZ which will pitch the company into a totally different league.
Chip

[wolterix] 06/3/2012 10:55

they are very serious about making this a £5 p/share company, then