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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow Rare Earths Limited | RBW | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.125 | 1.09% | 11.625 | 10:16:34 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.50 | 11.475 | 11.625 | 11.625 | 11.50 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| MINING |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 29/11/2024 21:27 by napoleon 14th Interesting, bbd2.IMHO no short term threat to GB's plan for RBW to produce by 2026. No doubt GB's eye is on this as it could respond to our tech, (co-patented with KTec). I just hope he's well networked in that area, or just cold call anyway. Comparing coal to gypsum? There's plenty of profit in it for refiners either way. |
Posted at 15/11/2024 10:26 by perfect choice Yes some pull back but it happens. If you listen carefully to GB's last video, he does say on this interim report that it will be by end of the year, so covers it slipping into December from being by end November before. We've also had a consistent buyer recently whose buy order appears to have ended now so can impact on prices without that demand. RBW will always be a sentiment value driven stock until it becomes a producer and revenue earner in 2027, so volatility will always be there, despite the excellent potential fundamentals we see for RBW. |
Posted at 02/10/2024 12:42 by archie222 Thanks SnowyBest interview I've seen in a long time with some good questions from (independent) Sarah. Well referenced to the latest technical note on the RBW website.Nice to hear from Roux and get the sense of a positive functional team at RBW. There looks to be plenty more to come from this company. They've a clear plan and seem to be doing all they can to bring it to pass. |
Posted at 02/10/2024 09:15 by perfect choice Yes, if a "threshold of confidence" is passed to uplift sentiment then you can certainly get a share price jump.For exploration stocks (to be strict RBW is not that, this is a new chemical processing plant in reality, where the process itself is new), I have literally seen share prices double in a day when a good Bankable Feasibility Study is issued, also 50%+ jumps when off-take agreements are announced post BFS. Project funding is also a key milestone with potential to jump the share price. So examples of "confidence thresholds" as I call them. For RBW, we have the interim feasibility report coming up next month (GB specifically stated November in the last video), with project funding discussions starting after that report, off-take agreement discussions as well. The full BFS is due H2 2025 (although I noted GB on that last video stated more of a case slipping into H2 that being end H2), so that is not a confidence factor yet. There is also Uberaba with Mosaic as well and currently at lab stage, but could they announce a pilot plant programme for that? Could be announced at anytime maybe, but right now Phalaborwa remains the priority and focus of management as it should be. So plenty of potential news flow items to consider for the rest of 2024, we'll see what gets issued. |
Posted at 18/9/2024 08:24 by swanvesta kenmitch, you'd be hard-pressed to find a REE project that had reached the stage RBW hopes to. There aren't any trying to do what RBW are doing. And REE separation in general is currently all in China. So, on the face of it, it's a legitimate attempt to tackle that imbalance and do it in a novel/cost effective way. CEO George Bennett has himself invested millions in the company. But being a pioneer is risky, and there will be disappointments and delays. FWIW I've decided the risk is too great for me and I have decided to stay on the side lines for now, but will watch developments with interest. |
Posted at 18/9/2024 07:29 by kenmitch mw16I hadn’t looked at RBW for ages (until accidentally coming across their update this morning while searching for something else). I sold ages ago because like all these hope shares, long ago RBW looked exactly that. I.e hope and not reality. These hope shares always have “respectedR |
Posted at 12/9/2024 12:45 by mw16 I hear you but potential doesn't seem to make a trifle of difference to the share price. 2.5 years ago we hit 18p, one year ago we hit 16p. As we get closer to the initial processing date of 2026 the risks for the business decrease, couple that with the potential 15% increase of material available at phala then you can see why potential isn't part of the share price equation, at least for rbw.This share is a pure sentiment gamble.The gamble being, will rbw ACTUALLY process and sell any material in 2026?I suspect not. I have been following numerous shares like this for over 30 years and very, very, few make it, despite having ardent followers who would have you believe white is black and black is white.The current share price is arbitrary, it could be anything between £0 and £1. |
Posted at 12/9/2024 09:34 by perfect choice Ultimately yes certainly based on financials which is why we have a 40p valuation from Stifel as of yesterday based on their forward financial models but RBW is 10p today. But prior to financials, IMHO a company price is based sentiment and potential, otherwise the price as a non-producer would just be worth its cash minus liabilities.What RBW are seeing some of is the initial price jump from JORC resources being announced but then some consolidation downwards then progress towards production. So in a traditional explorer to miner scenario, there are peaks and troughs before they get to actual production and revenues. The first diagram at h..ps://www.visualca You could regard RBWs previous jump to 16p as that initial Discovery jump for Phalaborwa, then consolidation backwards, but also now close to the Institutional/Strate Now this is only for Phalaborwa, Uberaba in Brazil is at zero value in current share valuations and could be larger than Phalaborwa, but also I would expect 50/50 ownership as well with Mosaic. There was also the "hiccup" of Gakara in the mean time which has effectively been mothballed for now as a result of the policy of the Burundi government on in-country miners/producers. So its never an easy analysis and several contributing factors determine a share value at any point in time. In the meantime we know the next milestone will be the interim report due November based on the GB interview posted. That will update and give a firmer view of financials ahead of the DFS early 2025, so very much looking forward to that. |
Posted at 01/6/2024 21:13 by perfect choice Worth noting the South Africa election result (officially announced tomorrow but virtually complete now) for Phalaborwa. Had some concern the more extreme EFF could get into government if the ANC lost their majority (as they have done today with 40.2% as of now) and needed a coalition partner and somehow it was only the EFF. The EFF have already stated today that their deputy Floyd Shivambu should be a future finance minister in any future coalition if they were included.But results today show that even a combined ANC/EFF vote (40.2% + 9.5%) could not generate a majority and there are more likely coalition options anyway, e.g. ANC with the DA (who also had a pact agreed last year with 10 other minor parties) and IFC, or ANC with new MK (but MK is the party of the former ANC leader and he is demanding the President Cyril Ramaphosa resigns as leader). Both have been mentioned in the BBC results feed today. South Africa politics is complex (70 parties and 11 independents were running for this election), so there could be other combinations. But as an investor in RBW I am only interested in any risk to commercial operations and returns for RBW from Phaloborwa. We would not want another Burundi situation. But I only saw that being a risk if the EFF were dictating elements of government and their vote actually reduced slightly today, plus combined with the ANC they still cannot get to a majority, versus more likely other coalition combinations anyway. This is the first time South Africa has had to look at forming a coalition government so may be a bumpy route to get there but should happen and today's result has removed a politic risk as far as I am concerned. Phalaborwa itself (well the town is) is in the Limpopo district so any provincial government authority will be down to only the ANC as it was actually the highest voting district in South Africa for the ANC at 74%. So no change from now in effect, as far as RBW is concerned. Interesting trading of RBW this week and movements upwards. Just looked at the latest RBW presentation from the The Junior Indaba event and dated 22 May 2024 so only 1.5 weeks ago. Slide 9 of that presentation states "Final stage purity expected at 99.5% separated NdPr RE oxides in Q2 2024, with Dy and Tb to follow". So we are now in the final month of Q2 and this very key news must be getting close and confident of achieving if it was only just stated less than 2 weeks ago. |
Posted at 26/11/2023 18:04 by perfect choice Well it would be ideal to issue an RNS on the RE Oxide K-tech pilot output for that award but very late if announcing on the 30th. But fingers crossed anyway for RBW.Looking back at fisherman16's question, its always worth considering all different types of risks to a stock value. The focus sounds more technically orientated where there is some level of confirmation already and we are waiting to hear more. First let's consider Phalaborwa. From a technical basis, this is now deemed a commercially viable project based on the acceptable outcome of the RE Sulphate pilot plant based at Mintek. This will be for RE Sulphate production only so for those limited customers who can take RE Sulphates instead of RE Oxides. Several interested parties are known including customer(s) in Japan for example, as this has been mentioned previously. But RE Sulphate output would only generate 60% of the intended total revenue from Phalaborwa, but with reduced Capex as well, its deemed commercially attractive still. Even with only this validated stage, Phalaborwa construction would proceed. The pilot plant is still running to optimise the production process, may only gain a few more percent efficiency but every bit counts here. So in a technical sense I am confident of Phalaborwa happening. However there may be other risks though which I'll cover below. The second stage of Phalaborwa production is conversion of RE Sulphate to RE Oxide output, which is currently under pilot testing at K-Tech's facility in the USA. We are patiently waiting an RNS on how that has gone, currently due by end of this year. Now if there a risk this stage could fail in so far its not commercially viable? It has to be considered a risk, but a risk for the optimum revenue route for Phalaborwa, not the fundamental feasibility of Phalaborwa happening, as a RE Sulphate production facility at least is deemed viable. Now RBW with K-Tech have stated this stage of the process "works" but that is based on the initial lab testing done. Scaling up to volume is the question the pilot needs to validate and a minimum level or efficiency of output has to be achieved to be commercially viable. We wait to see if that is achieved with the pilot plant at K-Tech. I expect RBW will not issue an RNS until they have achieved that minimum level but if successful this will be a major de-risk and potentially value changing milestone for RBW. But if for some reason this 2nd stage may work but at volume, it just doesn't reach the efficiency required to be commercially viable, expect a knock back on the RBW price. But it will not kill off Phalaborwa as the RE Sulphate production option is already there. Moving onto the Uberaba area of Minas Gerais in Brazil and the 50/50 MOU RBW has with The Mosaic Company. Plenty of stages to go through so it's probably going to take a year to get to the really interesting news here. First task underway is confirming the mineralogy and as stated in the RNS "Rainbow expects the Uberaba stack to have a similar grade and rare earth element make-up as those at Phalaborwa due to the similarities of the feedstock" So that still needs to be proven and announced, a key factor being the concentration of Rare Earths following the previous production process which created the stacks. So if that is confirmed (and we wait to find out), they will then develop the process flowsheet required for the first Uberaba stack including lab tests, as was done for Phalaborwa. The hope here is that it will be similar to what was developed for Phalborwa, but another stage to overcome. At this stage I expect a 50/50 JV to be announced with equal funding and ultimately revenue will be on a 50/50 basis as well. No certainty of the outcome of this stage, that's my guess. If compatible mineralogy/RE concentration and successful lab tests of the draft process flowsheet is confirmed, then we reach pilot stage at Uberaba as well. That will require a new pilot facility to be located in Brazil I expect, as the majority of the current RE Sulphate pilot facility at Mintek is using Mintek owned equipment. But it will be a 50/50 investment for RBW/Mosaic unless some other agreement is reached between both parties (e.g. Mosaic fully fund but recover 50% from initial revenues?). So plenty of technical and commercial hoops to jump through on Uberaba, however it is certainly in the interest of Mosaic to achieve as their previous attempt to address the stack failed I read somewhere. There are also 3 stacks to ultimately address, so overall is much larger than Phalaborwa. So those are the more technically orientated risks I see for both Phalaborwa and Uberaba. What are other risks which are not technical that could disrupt the above plans? Well for Phalaborwa being in South Africa, there could be political or legislation changes that could disrupt plans. The next general election in South Africa is next year 2024, if the ANC do not achieve 50% support (current poll ratings are 38% to above 50%) they will have to to go into coalition with another party and there are some left wing parties which are very anti-business we would not want them influencing policy. Risks could include changing taxation arrangements, enforcing all production facilities remain "in-country" (so no K-tech USA facility for 2nd stage output from Phalaborwa), etc. While all this is unlikely as South Africa needs its miners income (know this is strictly NOT mining), it's an election, so who knows what could happen? Other risks for share holders could also involve an early takeover of RBW which while beneficial, could lose the opportunity for higher gains. However the structure of RBW now and TechMet's holding in particular will limit this risk. So actually a wide range of risks to consider here. FYI I have a significant holding in RBW, already have a nice profit and expect much more in due course. But one thing I've learnt over time, is that in the field of investing in non-revenue companies, there is always the chance of an unexpected surprise, so risks should always be considered no matter how confident you may feel with your investment. |
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