R.e.a Share Discussion Threads

[nobull] 20/6/2022 10:31

Today's announcement is interesting: the press got it all wrong then about the top band of export levy being reduced to $200 until the end of July! The press got it right about the top band of export tax being increased by $88. The $200 export levy the press talked about was actually an increase if you wanted opt out of the time consuming DMO requirements to get an export permit.

I see Joko has sacked the minister in charge of setting the levy and export tax. What a mess it has all been. The remedy for high cooking oil prices is to allow exporters to keep the benefits of high CPO prices.

[davidjbr] 27/5/2022 12:59

My best guess is that it's depressing domestic prices vs international. Previously they've said that domestic prices are approximately at international levels once the export levy is accounted for. This announcement suggests that relationship has been weakened given there is no longer the ability for producers to export all oil. Suspect that will lower domestic prices by maybe 20%, assuming export permissions start to come through (although the last month may well have been much lower).

[ntv] 26/5/2022 08:00

Not really sure what to make of the RNS re Lifting of ban
Anybody able to put it into plain English tia

[cwa1] 26/5/2022 07:19

Couple of announcements this morning:-

Extension of dollar notes



and

Lifting of CPO selling ban(with some restrictions)

[foxfox79] 18/5/2022 19:02

Some interesting food for thought here, i think 250 is a reasonable target for end of 22 not 23, based on my assumption - which may be wrong - that cpo prices will remain above 1000 USD cif rotterdam. I continue to hold as i believe agricultural stocks are one of the few areas to take shelter during the recession, as Marc Faber also recommends. Also own aep.

[nobull] 11/5/2022 15:36

This week's share price performance is nothing short of perverse (£1.46 right now). New analyst's forecast out showing eps of 24p for FY2022 and FY2023. I don't really believe these forecasts as I am not sure if they have taken into account the arrears payments on the prefs, which surely would reduce the eps.

Yes, I get that the $10m loan interest written off can now be written back (Coal is $385 a tonne right now) and we just need 9 more shipments perhaps to get our coal loans paid off. Net debt needs to come down a lot to get a lower risk rating, so that our shares can trade on a slightly higher PE e.g. 10x - and maybe for that we need a massive extension planting programme to bring down our average tree age to that closer to MPE's, I wonder, so we can have a decent production growth profile, like MPE has.

The weak £ must make the pref arrears a cinch to pay now.

The analyst gives us a "strong buy". Net debt of say $130m by y/e 2023, better interest cover, pref arrears paid off by then, and maybe a small re-rating - what's not to like? My price target (no, I haven't done any calculations) is £2.50 by end of 2023. JMV.

[nobull] 22/4/2022 12:27

Foxfox, I think it is a tax charge that needs to be made in the accounting period being reported on, but for which the actual tax cash payment isn't due until perhaps a future accounting period.

"The deferred tax charge of $10.9 million primarily relates to: $4.1 million in respect of tax losses utilised in the year (2020: $4.2 million), $2.7 million of foreign exchange losses on retranslation (2020: gain of $1.8 million) and a $3.5 million charge from the effect of tax rate changes (2020: charge of $9.0 million). As reported in the 2020 annual report, corporation tax rates in Indonesia were scheduled to reduce from a previous level of 25 per cent, through 22 per cent in 2021 and to 20 per cent from 2022 onwards. Deferred tax assets and liabilities were calculated on this basis at 31 December 2020 resulting in a significant deferred tax credit in 2020. The Indonesian government has now decided that the previously announced reduction to 20 per cent will not go ahead and, therefore, the deferred tax liabilities have again been recomputed to 22 per cent."

So I don't think 68.3% is going to be the normal rate of profits tax in future accounting periods. A lot of the charge this year seems to be a reversal of the previous year's tax credit, an accounting period when the tax credit was badly needed to stop the share price plummeting, I wonder?

[foxfox79] 22/4/2022 10:48

Nobull, what exactly is the origin of the deferred tax?
thx

[nobull] 22/4/2022 08:59

But for that 68% tax charge, we'd have had an NPAT of $23m instead of that lower $9.3m figure, and with a $23m NPAT we'd have surely had +ve eps attributable to the ords instead of the lps of 3.4 cents.

[ntv] 22/4/2022 08:47

Lol , your not the only one who wants to see a vast improvement in the debt levels!
Hopefully an AGM statement will be forthcoming and show a vast improvement in those levels

[foxfox79] 22/4/2022 08:18

Yes somewhat disappointing earnings, yet, i don't see cpo plummeting at least not to 600, base price probably 800, so this will slowly grind higher next years. Still this addiction to debt and financing through preference shares doesn't inspire much confidende in management - not a good combination in the agro sector.

[nobull] 22/4/2022 07:44

"Still an very interesting situation here"
Yes, NTV. I really want to see net debt plummet by about $40m or $50m, but that could take a couple of years. I guess the share price has to stand still for a bit while we clear the pref arrears and service the pref divs (total cost to do all that is about $24.3m, I think). Pleased to see your AEP has suddenly improved.

[ntv] 22/4/2022 07:37

Lots of extras in the accounts
Extra Pref dividend to be announced in June could be interesting
Tried to rough what they are getting currently at an extra $250 per tonne
Pity not more of update to current situation as these accounts are 4 months out of date
Agree nobull that stone work is a bit slow in getting started but so many things do in nearly every country
Coal loans should being repaid monthly and that is going to help a lot in the future
Still an very interesting situation here

[nobull] 22/4/2022 06:29

A deferred tax charge of $11.35m - what a shocker. The minute we make a profit, and it is all taken away in tax. A tax rate of over 60%. Shocking.

Pleased to see they have plans to do some extension planting - but it all feels behind schedule, particularly the stone quarrying. The $200 profit per tonne of coal (not for us - for IPA and the contractor) surely won't last long.

Not expecting these to rise on these results, but what do I know? Nothing.

[ntv] 14/4/2022 09:30

No, as Indonesian government have rules against it to limit foreign ownership

[rolo7] 14/4/2022 09:00

I notice aep got a load of cash could they take this out?

[nobull] 06/4/2022 13:21

"So, despite hurdles set by the Indonesians RE will make record profits."

FY2021 is now ancient history even if they haven't reported those results yet. The market has long figured out those will be good (the reason for the 200%+ share price rise in the last 6 months?).

What maybe matters now is the current ex-mill-gate price they are getting and how much higher it is compared with the average for FY2021.

I think we might be getting about $1,000 a tonne now (compared with, say, $800 last year), assuming they aren't having to sell forward the stuff at a massive discount, all just to pay the bills on time.

Yes, the profits for FY2022 (reporting in April/May 2023) should be good, ignoring the effect of the level of pref div arrears they choose to pay out. But it is too early to get really excited about April 2023. Don't forget the dilutive effect of the warrants in 2025. Fingers crossed for these to go to £3 some time next year, perhaps when we can make a real dent on the net debt figure/or get loads of extension planting done on vacant land. AIMO. DYOR.

[undervaluedassets] 06/4/2022 11:30

Re the above I get it ..

However, these shares could still double and triple from here.

Palm oil prices are some 80% above the last all-time highs which were seen in 2011.

So, despite hurdles set by the Indonesians RE will make record profits.

[nobull] 04/3/2022 07:25

Great news that our cheapest(?) finance has been extended until 30 06 26. Not sure how much of yesterday's 20.5p rise to 166.5p was due to this and was due to the coal price spike and the uplift in the whole palm oil price curve (except for front month which dropped a bit yesterday after a stonking rise of about 500 ringgit on the previous trading day. Palm oil seems to be trading at a, get this, premium to soybean oil.

[cwa1] 04/3/2022 07:22

Extension of dollar notes approved

[ceaserxzy] 03/3/2022 18:34

Glencore is perhaps the biggest coal producer but it also mining a lot of other materials.