Purplebricks Share Discussion Threads

[rogthepodge] 01/12/2018 15:28

what a load of cobblers!

but I wouldn't expect any better from a Shareprophets contributor

[rogthepodge] 01/12/2018 10:50

There used to be hundreds of motor manufacturers. PURP is Ford.

or in internet terms, eBay or Amazon, the major brands. Amazon didn't make a profit for many years.

[andy] 01/12/2018 10:27

SK,


Agreed, some dinosaurs will become extinct, for sure, but new species will evolve as well, once the first green shoots appear.


The number of crypto tokens and coins is still multiplying, but the collective market cap is falling badly, down $700 billion this year, not taking into account new ICO's that have taken place, and there have been 600 of them in 2018!


Blockchain is here to stay, but many of the coins and token will wither and die fairly soon, IMO.

[sweet karolina] 01/12/2018 09:59

Some of the "dinosaurs" will die in the bubble burst too. However they are not really dinosaurs at all. They are trees in the forest, those who cannot survive the winter will die but will be replaced by new trees in the spring. Those who have no roots at all - ie the so called online disruptors will die and not return. They are dying already. The problem is the business model is fundamentally flawed, hence why none have generated the cash they need for organic growth in the good times. It is the natural order of things. The mistake investors make is the same as the dot com bubble mistake, ie believing that the internet is some magical cash machine which makes any business that exploits it a winner. Online retail is killing bricks and mortar retail, but that is a very different business model.

I think Blockchain will be similar, lots of investors piling into anything to do with blockchain, but only a few of the businesses will survive, though in the future virtually all businesses will make use of Blockchain in some form or another just like nearly every business uses the internet in one way or another now.

[andy] 01/12/2018 09:42

philo,


Once it becomes mainstream news that property prices are sticking, guzundering is back, and chains are collapsing, I think most people will be reluctant to agree to pay an advance fee for a sale that might not be achieved.


The good old dinosaur that works hard to achieve a sale because he doesn't get paid otherwise will have a stronger case, IMO, than the guy working from his car just trying to sign up as many new sales as he can for commission will be seen for what he really is.

[philosopherad1] 01/12/2018 07:49

Possibly however, it will depend on their LPE's earnings I suspect and also whether their competition can disrupt them in return.

[andy] 01/12/2018 00:44

SK,

"It is not just about finding a buyer for your house, it is about getting a chain to hold together."


Exactly, I know of two recent chain collapses, and my friend wants a property but they won't sell to her as she hasn't exchanged yet (due to a chain collapse!)

[sweet karolina] 30/11/2018 21:29

I was driving along yesterday and there was one of those Radio 2 phone ins. This one was about the housing market. There was quite a bit blaming BREXIT, which seems to have become the come in handy excuse for everything that goes wrong yet again, despite absolutely all the project fear scaremongering on the effect of voting for BREXIT being 100% wrong.


The key factor is house prices are quite simply too high. Whilst house prices are going up, there is the feeling that if you do not get on the property ladder / trade up for that extra bedroom now you won't be able to afford to in a year's time. That goes into reverse when prices are falling. Why buy now when in a year's time you can buy much cheaper. No doubt all the other fears of a global economic slow down as well as uncertainty over what BREXIT could mean (stoked up by the same fearmongers who got it so badly wrong last time) also contribute to people staying where they are, unless they really have to move. There was the caller who had given up trying to sell and the newbie who was looking forward to a 30% drop so she could afford to buy and many more similar stories.


The net effect is fewer houses coming on to the market and those that do taking longer to sell. It is not just about finding a buyer for your house, it is about getting a chain to hold together. The start of any chain has to be someone with nothing to sell - A first timer / someone coming back into the market from rented / a buy to let, all of those will be very nervous about buying whilst prices are falling. I have not yet heard and talk of gazzunderring (where you have agreed a price and as the chain gets close to exchanging you drop your offer price on the threat of pulling out and collapsing the chain) but it may be happening already, if not it won't be long before it does.

All this is really bad news for all agents, online and traditional. But it is particularly bad for those who charge an up front fee. As an investor the whole property sector is an avoid right now. Investing in the most vulnerable mega cash burning one is something only someone who bought into SGH after SGH foolishly bought the fraud from QPP and then averaged down repeatedly as the inevitable crash happened would contemplate and try (miserably) to defend.

[andy] 30/11/2018 21:14

philo,

Exactly, I think a slow market will do for PURP's MO personally.

[philosopherad1] 30/11/2018 19:58

Houses sell whatever the prevailing conditions. The volumes are the unknown aspect and that's what leads to agents closing. A good agent, be that one with an office or, one working from home, will and can survive. A vendor though is less likely to pay a fee of 50% of the norm in advance of moving in a poor market imo and experience. In the 80's I recall agents charging 1% when the average selling price was £50k. The slump of 88 took them out as their volume of transactions and therefore revenue, fell. The overriding question for an investor should surely be, if I invest, will I get a return? I don't think PB can deliver an appropriate divi from its share price. It's been mentioned that Sky lost money for many years and indeed it did however, I think it's less likely that anyone can open up as a tv station as easily as they can as an agent undercutting PB. I'm very surprised that a Haart, Connell or Yourmove hasn't created their own 'Purplepackage' utilising their existing resources. CWD tried but badly and poorly as the person leading it wasn't good enough. That's where I see the danger to PB. It's very vulnerable.

[elcapital2018] 30/11/2018 19:13

merely wrong, never touched them

[rogthepodge] 30/11/2018 19:11

and you were probably short yesterday

[elcapital2018] 30/11/2018 18:04

alm were 500 last year, now theyre 70p.....that a good result for you i guess!

[elcapital2018] 30/11/2018 18:02

that you are a moron

[rogthepodge] 30/11/2018 17:59

And Allied Minds has soared today.Your point?

[elcapital2018] 30/11/2018 17:43

i see another woodford stock has dived....kier

[buywell3] 30/11/2018 16:32

This thread has improved 100% of late V post content ... cases for V against PURP now being made in most cases via logical thought processes and reasoned arguements.


For me though I like to keep things as simple as possible by looking at the MACRO first

In this case the macro is the property market itself

If you think the property market is going to drop ... which is when a lot of estate agents historically have gone bust

Then investing is a no for me

However having said that ... chartwise there is always an argument for buying any share ... as long as it can keep on trading in order to recover


Recovery however I would argue depends upon the macro ... ie the area in which the company operates.


So the macro is all really

[buywell3] 30/11/2018 16:19

I said around 1993 the last property bust ended

There were some very good buys to be had at auctions around that time

Like shares nobody calls the bottom 100% correct ... but buying at or near the bottom is not a bad way of making money I would suggest

I don't like estate agents, but then again I am somewhat hard to please.

[andy] 30/11/2018 16:13

Stantini,


I think you may well be right, there will only be one online housing agent soon, but I still don't see them destroying the High St. dinosaurs, because they are real people known in the local community, and, more importantly, accessible!


After I bought my last house I got on well with the agent, and often popped in to see him when I was shopping,and we discussed the market, he made me aware of properties on his books and over they years I have referred people to him.


Certain industries are PEOPLE industries, estate agency is one, IMO, barbers, dentists, doctors, and pub landlords others that readily spring to mind.


You can reduce prices but you can't eliminate the personal factor.

[researchanalystman] 30/11/2018 15:10

Stantini,Being as were, the owner of one of the 30,000 estate agents,may i ask you what percentage was the market or did you charge on a property sale price in the 80's/90's and then in 2007.(I'm assuming but not sure did the commission levels reduce over time)

[researchanalystman] 30/11/2018 14:07

Buywell,The true reason axel bought in, and the purple management obtained a lot of money £100mln plus for just about 12 % of the company is because Purplebricks has a great product and potentially a great company.Axel is paying - yes paying !! purplebricks to help them disrupt the increasingly popular german estate agent business...Its a win win - just like deep mind and google for $500 mln which , for stantini's benefit made losses year after year !! (As well ) ( stantini -suggest you look that up.)About Homeday which axel and purplebricks have bought (withaxel's money !)Launched in 2015 by founder and CEO Steffen Wicker and based in Berlin, Homeday operates homeday.de, a transaction-based digital real estate agency platform in Germany that helps customers to buy or sell real estate. The Homeday model has some similarities to Purplebricks, combining a technology platform with an expanding number of local agents, referred to as 'realtors', operating across 65 German residential markets including Berlin, Hamburg, Munich and Cologne. The realtors are typically sub-contractors rather than employees. The customer proposition and service level provided by Homeday are well regarded, as evidenced by a Trustpilot average score of 9.3 from over 850 reviews.About the German MarketGermany represents one of the largest residential real estate markets in Europe, with more than 600,000 annual sales transactions. Reflecting the higher commission rates charged in the country, the annual sales commission income is estimated at €5.1bn. The German housing market is in good health, supported by strong economic growth, rising average household incomes, low interest rates and population growth.The German residential real estate market is highly fragmented. The largest agents are banks such as Sparkasse, Postbank, VR Bank and traditional agents such as von Poll and Engel & Völkers. The average transaction value is circa €240,000 with average net commission rates of around 5.8%, equating to transaction fees of €13,900. In this high fee environment Homeday offers an attractive and competitively priced proposition.Combined proposition of Homeday, Axel Springer and PurplebricksPurplebricks believes that the combination of Homeday's experienced and committed team, together with Axel Springer's presence in and knowledge of the media market in Germany, and Purplebricks' own operational and technology platform expertise, will significantly strengthen Homeday's growth potential.Although the online market in Germany is still small, it is a fast-growing market and Homeday has developed rapidly to become the market leader in just 4 years, achieving close to 50% market share of the online space (Source: Immobilienscout24). Purplebricks will contribute its increasing knowledge and experience of building online businesses in different international markets with a particular focus on optimising the customer experience, building Homeday's marketing impact and refining its technology platform to best effect.

[researchanalystman] 30/11/2018 13:35

Stantini you said ;=============='Prudent use of seed capital in the hands of an experienced and clever management team will always win out, '===============Stantini 1. It really is unashameable poor to continue with the global purplebricks plc profit and loss when comparing it with solely uk estate agents.One must always compare apples with apples, not apples with pears- this is so well known within financial and other circles -it is the basis and it really does no credit when this is pointed out as a fundamental flaw in your argument. 2. Your posting at the top of this post is fascinating - couldn't agree more.Woodford put a prudent £7 mln of seed corn to buy 30%of purplebricks then solely a UK based activity. As previously stated, - and ss you are well aware and i repeat to reinforce the point which you don't appear to accept - it made £6 mln profit in uk fiscal 2018 and this was after spending a whopping £20 mln on marketing. Sounds like seed corn succeeded and won out to me !! True , they now have global losses because of , and in order to develop businesses outside of the home patch on the back of uk profits and a verified successful business model after raising a ton of cash to do it. To me that is great and is the mark of a clever and experienced management team

[rogthepodge] 30/11/2018 13:27

good luck with your keynote speeches, Walter Mitty

what a loser!

[stantini] 30/11/2018 13:12

Morning Gents

hxxps://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2018/11/surprise-emoov-twist--now-russell-quirk-wants-to-set-up-a-property-pr-company

Anyone think that moving forward investors are going to be propping up online estate agents?

If Purplebricks do become the sole online agent, and they might, it will only be because in the old days it was thought that only 12% of potential vendors were sensitive to the fee they were paying when deciding on an agent to use.

So go out to 10 houses, and you lose 1 to the agent who was doing rock bottom fees. So yes they will dominate that market, but all the agents who did the cut price fees ceased trading - why - well they never made any profit … hmm now were were those company accounts again - ha ha.

Soon trading standards are going to have to look at Purplebricks barg that 81% of property they list, they sell … and when Mr Vendor realises that 52% of vendors do not get sold, they will feel a bit peeved. Bad new travels fast …

Thanks to Rogthepodge I am off to hopefully book a couple of conferences this week, and looking to make some keynote speeches, (thanks for the heads up on that Rog x).

So if anyone is looking for someone who can give insights and strategies into the property sector please let me know.

Maybe I could set up an online consultancy Dufferbreizeblocks.com - All the ways not to make money in the property sector.


Thoughts?