Probability Share Discussion Threads

[beeezzz] 19/1/2013 12:55

ram...I have been told an interesting insight into today's financial institutions investment banking.

A friend asked me too provide him with some companies I thought were worth investing in, he was due to see his financial adviser from a well known investment bank, which one is not important. I duly sent him a list of 10 companies.

One of the companies I suggested was Carclo, the investment adviser said he was unable to recommend Carclo to clients, although, he said they were rated as high risk, he then stated held Carclo in his personal portfolio saying they were a great company, he duly purchased some for my friend.

The point here is this, if Carclo are high risk in the eyes of financial advisers investment banks then what are probability, Carclo are heading for the Ftse 250, make a profit, pay a dividend, solid growth forecast, been trading for decades.

My point is this, institutional invest are risk averse these days, that's why pension funds and other financial products are performing so badly they can't take risk, and they certainly wouldn't take a risk with probability.

Still holding, lets hope for some good news soon.

[trentendboy] 17/1/2013 09:19

Ram,

Interesting point. Given Hills are in the middle of paying PTEC off it would suggest that they would be free to make an approach after this.

Suggests picking up more at this price could be a wise move

[rambutan2] 17/1/2013 00:58

TrentEndBoy, it wasn't that WMH didn't like PBTY, it was that PTEC blocked the move, as was its right under the online jv agreement. It would be interesting to know why PTEC took that stance.

[the analyst] 16/1/2013 16:30

I think the management are doing a great job here, but that the UK has not been the ideal market for mobile slots, hence the slow progress up until now.

Rather than making the company a lot of money, the UK B2C offering has been important for creating the technology, giving them the vital know-how and experience.

Basically, there have been two problems thus far - firstly, slow mobile web speeds and expensive data costs. Must have restricted growth a lot, but is becoming much less of a problem. With 4G, there should be a step-change in the quality of the slots they can offer, which is going to be important.

On top of that, the historically small size of mobile screens has not given UK players the type of playing experience that they expect from a slot machine game. Traditionally, UK pub bandit style machines are huge boxes, with lots of different features, that can't be translated to the small screen.

Newer UK casino slots are more easily translated to mobile - they are Vegas-style video slots, but again, still not perfect because people play them for entertainment and the small screens don't give a particularly entertaining experience.

Lately, bigger screen have become the norm and tablets are becoming very popular too - this is huge, because those Vegas-style slots translate really well onto tablet screens.

I'm much more optimistic about the Italian B2C market - traditional Italian slots are very simple fruit machines, with hardly any features compared to UK games, so should, imo, translate really well onto mobile and even onto smaller screen.

[the analyst] 16/1/2013 16:25

I'd say that the part of the company I am least interested in is the UK-facing Lady Luck casino. I'm much more interested in the B2B business and the prospects for the new Italian-facing ventures.

[trentendboy] 16/1/2013 15:54

This is why, when PBTY moves it really moves (up or down to be fair).

They should reach breakeven and then move quickly into profits (and dividend payments).

I still wonder what William Hills did not like about PBTY and whether others are looking to take them out cheaply. Smart phones saved PBTY and they need to capitalise quick on any first mover advantage (which is running out)

I have a large holding here and think we should see £1 at some point this year. The Italian deal is a game changer imo.

[trentendboy] 16/1/2013 15:54

This is why, when PBTY moves it really moves (up or down to be fair).

They should reach breakeven and then move quickly into profits (and dividend payments).

I still wonder what William Hills did not like about PBTY and whether others are looking to take them out cheaply. Smart phones saved PBTY and they need to capitalise quick on any first mover advantage (which is running out)

I have a large holding here and think we should see £1 at some point this year. The Italian deal is a game changer imo.

[rambutan2] 16/1/2013 15:39

beeezzz,

I'm not looking for an argument, just stating a fact.

Your assumption on nom accounts is incorrect. Many instit stakes are held in such accounts for all sorts of reasons. PBTY's two largest holders are ICAP founder Michael Spencer's investment company, and renowned investor and the 7th wealthiest individual in Britain, Joe Lewis. Then we have Leo, Foresight, Guild ie Trevor Hemmings, Al Nasr Group, UBS Wealth Mngt, Hargreave Hale, Citigroup, and Smith and Williamson amongst others.

And remember that the Playoo owners recently decided to take shares rather than cash for the bulk of their payment. With the founder joining the PBTY board.

And then there's Charles' and any other management stakes.

So, all in all, an exceptionally strong shareholder base!

[the analyst] 16/1/2013 13:05

PBTY is very risky, imo, but has decent technology and good potential.

Personally, I think that 2013 will the year that PBTY finally gain the critical mass they require - I expect that to happen in H2 and reflected in the trading update this time next year. Wake me up again in 2014 :)

[the analyst] 16/1/2013 13:00

beeezzz,

I'm not debating whether the AIM market is risky, or how it has performed.

My point was that your definitive statement that "only" dividend paying companies see their share price rise is absolutely incorrect.

[beeezzz] 16/1/2013 12:28

I notice that Ram has not got back to me regarding the massive holdings by institutions..!!!

the analyst....yes that's one, maybe you could let us know how the AIM market has faired over the last 3 years compared let say with ftse all share index, which I might add effects all stocks, I've got IQE and they faired reasonably I also own CAR and DIA which if you look at the charts have done considerably better.

Your right, so far off the radar nobodies taking any notice. Anyway livens up this otherwise very dull BB.

I must I do still hold this stock, for better or worse that the ?

[leedslad001] 16/1/2013 08:11

Yes its sit tight and add when funds allow. Well off the radar this one

[the analyst] 16/1/2013 08:07

Update today looks good

The growth in the B2C market looks promising, with total B2B revenues being 207% higher than the same period last year :)

I wonder how much money the company made from producing '50 shades of santa'? - seems to be a lot of emphasis on that in the statement

I'd like to have seen bigger increases in the consumer market growth, I was hoping to see more than an 18% increase in deposits. However, I'm pleased to see record deposits were made in December.

Other than that, it's just a case of wait and see what revenue comes in from the Italian customers as the year progresses. Very early days on that one.

[the analyst] 16/1/2013 07:58

beeezzz also states:

"In these markets only dividend paying companies see their share price rise, you can't make a cent anywhere else."

Again, this is not true. Most companies on AIM do not pay a dividend and there are plenty of examples of share prices rising throughout 2012 an into 2013. One of my favourite examples being LOQ.

[the analyst] 16/1/2013 07:54

LEO Capital Fund SPC took 5% of the company back in May

[leedslad001] 16/1/2013 07:28

Another upbeat trading statement. Can't see this company staying independent long has to be taken over by one of the big boys, tech too good.

[beeezzz] 14/1/2013 10:55

ram....Well you maybe right, however, my assumption on Nominee accounts are that these are held by PI's as in Hargreaves Lansdowne Nominees, etc etc so don't be too sure institutions hold them, Management maybe.

I'm still waiting to be excited.

[beeezzz] 13/1/2013 14:09

blue... Maybe as you get old you have less time to wait, as they say you should at least allow a 5 year time frame when investing. Maybe I should move on...I'll wait too see what he has to say.

[bbluesky] 13/1/2013 10:44

Beeezzz that is ridiculous. Charles Cohen is not just a very bright cookie, he is an excellent presenter and already a great track record in business. If you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen.

[beeezzz] 12/1/2013 17:15

Well it is on AIM and penny share, no institutional investors will even look at it!!

Anybody going to this junket? If throw a rotten egg at the CEO.

[leedslad001] 11/1/2013 15:00

This one is well off the radar at the moment so gives us time to fill our boots. When funds allow.

[tradervic] 11/1/2013 11:22

Charles Cohen, CEO of Probability to present at the London Innovators and Investors Forum

It is our pleasure to invite you to attend the forthcoming Innovators & Investors Forum on the 29th January 2013 at the Business Design Centre, London. This will be an exclusive invitation only event organised by Shares Magazine and Cenkos Securities.

As an active private investor, we are sure you would appreciate this unique opportunity to receive privileged access to 30 diverse, forward thinking and energetic technology companies at a single event.

Many of the exhibiting companies are currently involved in some very exciting projects in an effort to drive future growth, and development within their industries.

The event will be supported with an extensive conference program, including keynote speakers and company presentations.

We sincerely hope you are able to attend and that you find the experience both profitable and enlightening. Companies represented include:

1Spatial
Avanti Communications
Bango
Bond International Software Group
Brady
CML Microsystems
Corac
Cyan Holdings
eg Solutions
Energetix Group
eServGlobal
Forbidden Technologies
Fusion IP
Globo
incadea
InternetQ
IQE
KBC Advanced Technologies
Netcall
Optimal Payments
Plastics Capital
Probability
Quindell Portfolio
StatPro Group
WANdisco


Event time: 12.30pm to 5.30pm

Complimentary refreshments and luncheon provided

To register for this event please


CONFERENCE AGENDA AS AT 09.01.13
(To be updated once presentation speakers are confirmed)

12:30 Registration & Lunch

14:00 Keynote speaker - Richard Penny, Senior Fund Manager - Legal and General

14:15 Shares Magazine presentation - Russ Mould, Editorial Director

14:30 Company presentation - David Richards, President & CEO - WANdisco

14:45 Company presentation - Henrik Bang, CEO - Netcall

15:00 Company presentation - Marcus Hanke, CEO - 1Spatial

15:15 Company presentation - tbc

15:30 Coffee Break

16:00 Company presentation - Stephen Blundell, CFO - eServGlobal

16:15 Company presentation - David Baynes, CEO - Fusion IP

16:30 Company presentation - Stephen Streater, CEO - Forbidden Technologies

16:45 Company presentation - Charles Cohen, CEO - Probability

17:00 Company presentation - Simon Smith, Non-Executive Director - Cyan Holdings

17:15 Close

This agenda is subject to change and alterations

For further information, please visit our