Probability Share Discussion Threads

[richaims] 12/4/2013 14:51

I've seen mention of pbty having tech lead - is this lead patent protected?

[trentendboy] 12/4/2013 13:55

Good chance to get in ahead of the crowd - can it be that simple?

Interesting experiment

[looby loo] 12/4/2013 12:46

Nigel Wray is one of the star speakers on the main stage of the UK Investor Show tomorrow. Perhaps he might mention what shares he bought this week:

[rambutan2] 12/4/2013 10:24

I know that one of the Blackrock small cap funds changed manager recently and has been a seller of a bunch of positions.

Trent, as you say, Mr Wray has a following which should help generate a bit of interest in PBTY and bring in a few punters.

[trentendboy] 12/4/2013 10:16

Wray has a lot of followers actually. When this leaks I expect others to jump in (especially if he tips it somewhere).

Has to be an opportunity for a quick 10% at least

[trentendboy] 12/4/2013 10:11

Interesting quote:

Even today he is still "seduced into the odd punt by broker friends," but he reckons he does no better than break even. "In my experience you only make serious money by identifying good companies with good management and staying with them."

[trentendboy] 12/4/2013 10:07

FOR a man worth pounds 50m (on conservative estimates), Nigel Wray's tastes are comparatively modest. True, he drives a Porsche, but it's 11 years old. He lives in a Jacobean mansion in the affluent North London suburb of Totteridge. And he has an eclectic collection of cricket memorabilia, where WG Grace's last bat takes pride of place.

But there is no Caribbean hideaway, no Rembrandt, no yacht and no plane. Then, in November, he blew his reputation for moderation, paying pounds 2m for the ultimate rich man's toy - a sports club, in this case his local rugby side, the Saracens.

[trentendboy] 12/4/2013 10:07

As predicted - a share swap -

Blackrock sell 2 million shares Nigel Wray.

Good to bring on board an active investor. Always a shame to lose some Blackrock support although they still hold a fair chuck.

This has to be seen as good news. The question is whether this was a stock overhang or just Nigel getting a good deal.

Be impossible to pick up that quantity without buying from a large holder. To spend over a million quid on PBTY shares certainly shows faith in the company.

Might follow him in at this price

[rambutan2] 12/4/2013 09:52

Welcome aboard Mr Wray - a man who takes good odds when he's offered them ie at 64p. (Blackrock sold at 63.5p)

[hombe] 11/4/2013 16:44

Some nice action in the US today, GLUU seems to be picking up some interesting commentary ... its difficult to imagine this not doing well for all concerned especially with IPGL (17%) watching.

[the analyst] 11/4/2013 15:52

Last time I looked, the US had only opened up for online poker so far and even then, only in one or two States at the moment.

Although it will come eventually, I think they are still quite a long way off regulating casino games like slots for online and mobile.

[trentendboy] 11/4/2013 15:46

I can imagine them signing some nice contracts with the big Casino operators although there is stiff competition as always. They have to take advantage of their current tech lead and quickly.

The US timing is good. What is surprising is no price reaction to US opening. This must be related to the stock overhang.

Still need to get an RNS on stock transfer

[the analyst] 11/4/2013 14:43

"Growth plans for 2013 and beyond

Following a successful fundraising in January 2013, the company is now intensifying its investments to deliver sustainable growth and long term improved margins.

Historically, the majority of revenues have come from direct-to-consumer services supported by upfront marketing investments. Over the medium term, the company plans to continue to grow this part of its business but include a much greater role for affiliates and performance based marketing partners. Investment in brands will continue to drive revenue growth in the short term and will help to build a platform for attracting such partners to the service.

Probability's "B2B" platform services for online gambling operators and mobile brands are growing rapidly, and developments such as the exclusive content offering and the opening of the Italian market mean that the company expects this part of its business to account for an increasing part of its revenues. Over the medium term, these services will come to account for at least half of global revenues for the company.

Internationally, Probability is well positioned to exploit the opening up of new markets, particularly in the US and EU. The company is actively pursuing a number of opportunities in several US states and, within Europe, is leveraging its strong presence in the UK and Italy.
"

[the analyst] 11/4/2013 14:43

Couple of snippets from their website, that I hadn't seen before:


"Starting in 2013, Probability switched on it's revolutionary Slot-O-Matic platform, which reduces the time required to deploy a new slot game from weeks to a few hours. Slot-O-Matic also makes it much easier for the company to keep its large portfolio of games up to date on new devices and mobile operating systems. Probability is also now able to offer its partners an exclusive content service which is unique in the industry."

[trentendboy] 11/4/2013 10:47

Another million though and a slight tick up.

Could be the other side of the 4 million yesterday.

This has to be an institutional selloff or buy.

RNS cannot be long

[trentendboy] 10/4/2013 19:16

In fact, today's volume is more than twice the highest volume in the last 2 years.

This is a major event. But what is it?

There has to be a buyer and a seller for that volume.

Hopefully it is the start of the long awaited take over approach,

Can't see this selling for below one quid given tightly held etc.

[trentendboy] 10/4/2013 19:12

They must be sells worked through over the last few days and might explain the recent falls. Should be an rns on the seller. Must be one of the institutions.

Lot of it about. Netplay seeing similar share move.

That is serious volume for this share.

[bbluesky] 10/4/2013 18:15

Over 2m bought at 64 just before the close.

[the analyst] 10/4/2013 16:24

Personally, I see the future as in their B2B offering, rather than B2C.

The B2C has given them vital experience, but I think they would be much better off focussing on B2C, especially if they can continue to develop unique games for their partners - that could be very lucrative.

[the analyst] 10/4/2013 16:23

On the one hand, there is more competition, but at the same time, some of those companies you see advertising are actually offering Probability games through their B2B relationships, so are in fact promoting Probability.

It will be interesting to see how they grow revenues now they have entered Italy. The interesting thing is that the growth of the mobile gambling market is so big that they could actually still be grow revenues at record levels even if they lose some market share to competition.

Should be a trading update later this month. I don't know if it's too early to get any sort of meaningful update on Italy or not.

Guess we just have to wait and see...

[hombe] 09/4/2013 12:27

How is it there's no trace of this on Google Play?

[beeezzz] 08/4/2013 17:47

Huge amount of competition getting in on the mobile market, lots of adverts on TV especially sporting events, will PBTY be left behind with a much smaller marketing budget. Hmmm

[trentendboy] 07/4/2013 20:40

Pbty is a good small cap chance. In Italy early with contracts with the big Players.

Tablet story is strong as it is with netplay.

Ladyluck has a well established brand a good apple Positi on.

Current over exposed but this could be a bagger.

[polythene] 07/4/2013 19:28

There's a few years to go before there is an outcry about easy access to gambling and the number of addicts being created. Should be a very lucrative area over the next few years.

[richaims] 07/4/2013 12:28

Thinking of investing further in low cap mobile gambling opportunities as the future is clearly enormous (billions). Is a mkt cap of only £21.62m (ADVFN figure)correct? What news flow is anticipated and when? Am I right in thinking Playtech is the main competitor?