Probability Share Discussion Threads

[mega_trader] 29/10/2013 08:24

Update RNS - Not a very impressed. Not enough substance. Back to sub 40?

[rambutan2] 23/10/2013 01:42

In 2012 Mr. Byrne left William Hill Online to set up Bet & Move Ltd, a mobile casino based on the Probability mobile platform. The management of Bet & Move is being transferred to Mr. Byrne's business partners as part of his transition to his new role with Probability.

hxxp://www.betandmoveaffiliates.com/about.html

[trentendboy] 22/10/2013 17:17

Nice initial reaction to the news - could push on again from here.

[trentendboy] 22/10/2013 12:06

Interesting news:

"Mobile gambling provider Probability has appointed William Hill's former head of mobile Michael Byrne to the newly created position of chief commercial officer".

This has to be good news - William Hill have done well on mobile - he must be on a large pay packet with share options I would imagine.

Is sure to be well connected

[trentendboy] 03/10/2013 17:24

Nigel is really stocking up - 10% and still buying.

The problem is the small free float. For him to get the 29% ahead of any buy out he would need to pay a lot to get the big boys to sell out.

His interest provides serious support to the share price and should get us back to 60p soon enough

[rambutan2] 03/10/2013 15:01

Mr Wray picks up another 175k to tip him over 10%.

[trentendboy] 02/10/2013 22:51

With your volumes you would shift it by yourself.

DYOR

The issue is WHY did it fall so far for no reason.

The answer I think lies with a distressed institutional seller in the US.

Hence, great opportunity IMO.

Small cap gamer though so beware but has to be a target for inevitable consolidation.

They have an mobile first mover advantage but others catching up fast.

Have the big boys on white label deals though

[shayadfn] 02/10/2013 21:20

Hello TrentEndBoy, just checking out pbty, may consider a punt. I have built up a hefty amount in cey- may take profits later in the year.

[trentendboy] 02/10/2013 16:43

Now we see the great leap forward.

Wish I had bought more now - still not too late to get another few grands worth.

This will be back at 60p in short time IMO

[trentendboy] 23/9/2013 09:42

Still developing nicely. Was clearly a distressed seller overhang.

Nothing to stop it now - PBTY has to be a prime takeover target as well especially at this surpressed share price

[bbluesky] 20/9/2013 19:51

Foresight 3 VCT hit an all time low in July and hardly above that now. 52 down from 90, eighteen months before, so I think distressed is a fair description. Interesting times.

[trentendboy] 20/9/2013 16:02

Jumping up on small volumes now - back to the old days.

Overhang must be cleared. Clear air now up to 75p IMO

[trentendboy] 19/9/2013 19:10

From last Tuesday you can see the large blocks going through.

Adding it all up I am not clear if it equally the million pounds worth owned by foresight.

Be great if Wray has taken them all. The market will certainly react to that

[trentendboy] 19/9/2013 19:04

Indeed. A distressed institutional seller is often good news for the small investor looking for a bargain.

Could be an easy 50 percent or more.

Time to load up the ISA again.

[rambutan2] 19/9/2013 15:24

Hi Trent, just put the links for ref. Actually would appear that both VCTs are short of cash for their ports, forget divs.

If you look at the trades for tue and partic yesterday you can see the blocks changing hands. All clues point to Foresight as the seller as the figures fit, but it could be Spencer reducing I suppose. Can't see it being Fidelity as they only recently bought in (at 64p), and Joe Lewis also only recently added.

Hopefully the Wray add will be noticed by Mr Mkt. Just to get back to the placing price would mean a 50%+ rise.

[trentendboy] 19/9/2013 15:04

Cannot see news of a full sell off. Volumes do not seem high enough - could see no news in the above links.

Be great if they were out and overhang cleared. Because this moves on low volumes their exit would be enough to explain the 60 down to 40 move.

Interesting. Got to increase liquidity

[rambutan2] 19/9/2013 14:55

I'm assuming that another rns is due saying that Foresight parted with the balance of the shares.

no3 fund(FTD):

no4 fund (FTF):

[rambutan2] 19/9/2013 14:52

Yes, looks good result. The Foresight funds are VCTs and are obliged to pay divs, usually from turning capital into inc. Could be that they've had enough of waiting for PBTY to take off and with a willing buyer out there decided to cash in. In any case, whatever, Wray is a more useful large holder to have. I wonder whether he, or his proxy, will get a board seat.

[trentendboy] 19/9/2013 14:17

A quick search shows 2 funds owning PBTY shares. They are just below breakeven and may well want to move on. They focus on unquoted companies.

They will certainly have a lot less information that Wray and indeed some of us on this board.

All good news. Makes it a stronger buy. Even if they want fully out there is not far to go.

[trentendboy] 19/9/2013 14:10

So Wray had been buying more - close to 10% and Foresight Group have been selling.

Need to check what Foresights total holding is - they appear to have another 4%.

Is this the overhang? Do they want out or is this Wray just wanting more?

Interesting times. Wray has a good following and this looks like good business.

But why foredight selling ? Any information out there?

[trentendboy] 19/9/2013 10:52

We know that with this share when it moves it really moves (up and down).

If we have cleared an overhang we could make serious progress. This should be over £1 IMO.

I have bought some more - this can double in days so one has to be prepared. To painful to miss these giant rises. Free float is limited and they have Wray on board now - no slouch.

Could not resist any longer.

[rambutan2] 19/9/2013 00:56

Well, closed up 5% at 40-41p. As far as I can see approx 5% of shares traded mon-wed, so an rns will surely be forthcoming.

[trentendboy] 18/9/2013 09:32

The recent fall is still perplexing. Competition is intense but they have a good position and a good brand.

Must be heavy selling pressure.

It is looking tempting at this price but those large trades look like sells - could be that an overhang has been cleared but even so, why the selling into a decent growth story.

I have called this wrong but it is not yet clear why. Strange.

[rambutan2] 18/9/2013 01:20

Some big (for PBTY) trades gone through, which could mean that downward share pressure is finally coming to an end. Hopefully!