Premier Veterinary Share Discussion Threads

[errollc] 04/4/2016 18:13

exciting times for this one...seems on a good trajectory for sure. Been buying a few in recent weeks.

[lomax99] 30/3/2016 13:44

Bought some recently, interested to see how this develops,

[pet lover] 26/3/2016 08:43

4 days off at last. Rain over the weekend will keep most indoors so the hound and I can get out and about. RIGHTMOVE PLC is an example of the type of company an investor wishes he bought ten years ago. They trade on a PER of 35 and make around 66P in the pound on turnover. It's a pure dream with the growth rate running at 30% as it has done for years. They have the market just about to themselves. The stock has grown about 40 fold in that time.
This week PVG updated the market with Pet care plan numbers. Plans sold outside the UK doubled in just 3 months from 5,000 to 10,000. It's not the 100% increase that did it for me.
Any company can have a great product and brand but fail to execute outside their own borders. Both Marks and Sparks and Tesco are great examples of this in years gone by, massive write downs and total failure.Shareholders can now be reassured that these Pet Health Plans can and do sell abroad with ease. The directors have clearly cracked this one. PVG'S model is so very simple sign up vets sell the plans and share the profits.The pet is the real winner with improved health followed by the client. Yes the vet and to a lesser degree PVG also come out on top. PVG can over the next 5 to 7 years grow into a very large company. Competition in the UK is a fact but around the world it's not far off non existent.PVG have fixed head office costs and its main market listing does not come cheap for a small company. These costs need to be covered by selling more Pet Health Plans. The first 100,000 plans plus the buying group revenues should cover this {£3.25M}on an annual basis. I would then like to think any new income would produce around 66P in the pound in the early years rising towards 80P within 3 years. For new investors to get excited PVG needs to add vets at breakneck speed with plan sales following hot on their heels. I am convinced that PVG can now do this,it stands to reason if they do the shares will be rated accordingly. PER ratios should track growth rates. 10% growth PER of 10. Growth of 20% being rewarded with a PER of 20 and so on. PVG will have extremely high quality earnings. Recurring revenues,growing untapped market proven management all driving year on year increases in Vets, plans and hopefully profits. PVG is set to update the market each 1/4 with plan numbers split UK and abroad so growth rates can be tracked regularly. Over the next year or two the numbers I will be looking at is vet sign up rates knowing that over time the plans will follow. It's tricky to attempt to value the company today as profits are non existent. Any investor however can deduce that once profits materialise the company will have real value. I envisage each million of profit being worth 25 to 35 times or even more if growth exceeds 40% year on year. At the top end just one million of after tax profit would value the company at £30M {18M today}. For the life of of me I can't see profits being held back by anything bar investment for future growth. The shares are not particularly cheap today as its still a waiting game. One has to take a view what 2017 - 2020 will bring. Or are they, clearly without profits and to some extent dividends which PVG have said will not be paid only a small section of potential investors will be in the slightest bit interested.You can't blame them as so often at the end of the day companies continually underperform profit expectations during the early growth stages.PVG although not making profits today most certainly would be if they were part of a larger company where listing and the head office cost base would fall dramatically.From that angle the company is cheap right now and if it can grow at 50% plus for a few years it's more than cheap.That gives me comfort as do PVG'S recurring revenues.

[hydrus] 23/3/2016 13:04

Very good - the international opportunity is clearly massive considering the large gains in Netherlands in a short period of time.

[curlly] 23/3/2016 12:14

That's a good rns

[hydrus] 26/2/2016 16:57

It's a highly illiquid share so if sellers outweigh buyers only marginally over a period then the price will fall significantly. The opposite is also true.I've put the share up 10% before buying a fairly insignificant amount. Let's see how the business does over the next three years. The share price will roughly match its performance.

[netcurtains] 26/2/2016 08:17

I have lost more money on this share than any other that I own.
I would have thought that this idea was a safe bet.
What on earth has happened.
Its basically crashed.

[pet lover] 04/2/2016 17:28

Not up to date news but worth a read.

[ginger_ninja1] 04/2/2016 13:32

let's try again

[netcurtains] 04/2/2016 12:57

bigglesbingham: you are correct, as I learnt to my cost. I put a lot into the market generally just after Christmas. Ouch!!!

[bigglesbingham] 04/2/2016 12:01

No but cheers

[ginger_ninja1] 04/2/2016 10:17

Has everyone seen this?http://youtu.be/-py6OBOOJsQ

[bigglesbingham] 03/2/2016 20:16

Timing is everything but the amount you can buy in single trades is very low so phased purchases seems a logical solution. ??

[hydrus] 03/2/2016 19:53

I've no idea what a Kondratiev wave is but understand your sentiment.Just not possible to time entry though into such an illiquid stock. All you can do is decide whether the company will be worth a lot more in a few years. As an aside current valuation based on current business seems absurd to me.Mcap £17mCash £4.5Buying group £5.1m (see previous pet lover post)That leaves an £8.4m valuation for the current £2m recurring revenue pet plans (ignoring the current levels of growth, which is silly to do really). If they packaged up and sold off £2m of sticky recurring revenue at 96% gross margin would they get more than £8.4m (eg more than 4 times profit) - of course they would.

[netcurtains] 03/2/2016 19:39

PL: You miss the point! Everyone wants to make the most money possible. So if I bought the share later on I could have got them significantly cheaper. There is no major difference between a "trade" and an "investment". The only difference is the "wave". An investor has his sights set on a long term Kondratiev wave and a trader on a daily wave. Both require idealised entry and exit points - which can go drastically wrong. They both have in common ENTRY and EXIT.

[pet lover] 03/2/2016 19:17

Netcurtains: PVG is not a trading stock nor will it be paying dividends for years. It's attractive to those investors who are looking for low scale risk while at the same time being exposed to 100% turnover growth.The nature of the companies recurring revenues is the icing on the cake. This should produce solid share price gains over the long term so long as costs are kept under control. The directors have proved themselves buying the vets turning them around and then cashing in.The share price graph since the RTO has always been extremely volatile not helped by current market sentiment.Most companies struggle to grow turnover at 20% here we look like doing 5 times that. For the above reasons the hound and I don't think your share certificates will be in that draw for many months yet alone years.😯

[netcurtains] 01/2/2016 14:03

I clearly came in on this share at the very worst moment!!!

One to bung in the top draw for a year or two.

Sorry bank balance. Will do better next time.

[hydrus] 01/2/2016 11:05

The low liquidity here means even fairly small sells and buys move this dramatically.If you believe the future here is promising then it is an opportunity.

[netcurtains] 31/1/2016 20:43

I know that in Helsinki there are loads of dog lovers. (Lived there for a year)

[hydrus] 31/1/2016 14:07

Ultimately none of us know what the growth rate will be over the next few years. Personally I wouldn't get too worried about the exact rate.I don't think there is any question that in 3 years time they will have considerable more active plans then now. That might be 500,000 or 300,000 or less/more.Based on high gross margins one thing is for sure, they will be making a lot of profits if they get to those sort of levels. They could already be making very decent profits on only 100,000 plans but are rightly using profits to reinvest.

[100michael] 31/1/2016 13:54

OK - thanks for the response

[hydrus] 31/1/2016 13:23

But the 2000 per week is the existing growth rate without any contribution from Nordic region. Sweden and Denmark are Nordic countries so presumably covered by same agreement.It's not an issue for me - as I say they will now have learnt what model works best and go with that using the new funds. Remember the growth is already happening.

[100michael] 31/1/2016 13:06

Thanks Hydrus
Just seemed negative to me, if the agreement they have with the operator in Denmark isn't working then why not re-launch in Denmark to the Dutch model? Maybe they are not allowed due to contract terms with the current operating partner?
But why haven't they launched in Sweden and Norway based on the Dutch model, then?

Just think we are basing projections on a good rate of PCP's sold i.e. 2,000 per week, when all of a sudden we are told that Scandinavia isn't growing at all??

[hydrus] 31/1/2016 12:54

My take on that is they entered an agreement with one operator to help them roll out across the Nordic region and that it isn't working as well as the Dutch model which I think is more based on PVG directly contracting with clinics. I would anticipate that future overseas roll out will be based on the Dutch model rather than Nordic.Of course that's not to say that the Nordic contract won't make progress. Either way the growth in plans at PVG will come from the clinics they are already contracted with plus overseas from new markets and expanding the Dutch and Irish markets so personally not something that concerns me.They will have learnt what works best from their first few overseas markets.