Premier Veterinary Share Discussion Threads

[pet lover] 05/7/2016 07:57

I submit an essay from the hound and myself.It might bore you to ⚰.
Now that a broker has been appointed I have done a summary update for those that might be interested. The hound and I eagerly await any broker research and forecast to contrast with ours.PVG is continuing to invest in the global expansion of its Pet Care Plan business with the objective of achieving significant and sustained growth for the foreseeable future. USA contract win last week eight times PVG'S current size. Turnover pre contract was growing 100%. Recurring revenue model 97% margin. Company broker appointed last Friday. No debt. Fully listed. Weak pound advantage. PVG also has a buying group that brings in a fairly static £1M a year.PVG now has around 10,000 vet practices in which to sell its plans worldwide. Pet plan growth of 100% per annum looks highly achievable for at least the next five years. Total ongoing plans.150,000 to September 2016, 300,000 to September 2017, 600,000 to September 2018, 1.2M to September 2019, 2.4M to September 2020. One Pet Health Plan sold per clinic per week over 5 years adds up to 2.7M.One and a half plans per week over five years comes to 3.75M PVG currently sells within the UK around one point four plans per week. One point four for five years throughout the world would produce 3.5M. PVG also have the opportunity to sign up an unlimited number of vets around the world within the next five years.They could also double each year from today's 10,000 to 20,000 40,000 80,000 160,000. To put things in perspective 9,600 have just been signed in one month. That leaves 150,000 to be signed over the next 59 months.If both rates of plan sales and Vet signings do achieve those numbers the hound and I will be swanning around the world. One of the most comfortable attractions for shareholders managers and directors is knowing each day the exact cashflow position of the company. The direct debits 12 a year per plan allow the company to fine tune expansion plans very few businesses ever have this luxury.Recurring revenues don't we just love them. Revenues @£20.00 per year per plan is my best guess HYDRUS another investor who comments here puts it @ £18.00.Plan revenues come in 12 monthly instalments.At the start of each year the company knows that each plan should produce £20.00. New plans added during the year will only add a fraction of that £20.00 depending which month it's sold.Revenue for year starting September 2016 might look like this 150,000 @£20.00 is £3M plus a % of plans sold through the year.That % can safely be calculated at one third of projected sales of another 150,000 plans or 50,000.£1M.Total pet plan income for the year might be £4M. Add another £1M from the buying group and its £5M.On the same basis these are the next five year revenue guesses. Starting September 2016 £5M, 2017 £9M, 2018 £17M, 2019 £33M, 2020 £61M. Although the plans sold is projected to double each year the revenues have a slight drag due to only part of the new sales increase falling into the year in question.These projections are on the assumption that no more vets are signed up within the next five years to increase the potential sales base.We can be sure that sales base will increase dramatically which in turn could lift the turnover projections above by a massive margin.
The range of that margin could be a factor of 1,3,5,or 10 times if the number of vets signed up doubles each year as I put forward higher up the page. ☎️ numbers.

[bigglesbingham] 01/7/2016 13:55

Hope your right I'm staying put

[lomax99] 01/7/2016 08:22

Well they have now appointed a broker, Zeus Capital. That is good news, and great for anyone with access, in due course, to their broker notes.

Wishful thinking, but it would also be nice to see them do some paid research which is freely accessible to pi's i.e. with someone like Edison.

[pet lover] 01/7/2016 06:55

Why am I up at this time when I don't have to go to work.Its not fair . Merrit have a problem and it's a big one.How to increase sales year on year.One way is to lift compliance rates for American pets.Those rates fall off the cliff in years two and three as pet owners fail to update the pets jabs and worm / flea treatments. More on this has been spoken by PVG'S director at various UK trade shows.I am pretty sure it's the likes of Merrit and other companies in the same field yet to be signed up who will be driving this inichitive.It kind of speaks for itself, two giant sign ups in the USA within weeks.As shareholders we've now got a full five year potential order book 8.7 times larger than a week ago.Those orders now require pet owners to call them off at a rate of one or two per week per clinic / hospital. We know that is quite in order as a previous RNS informed us that a US competitor has over one million plans up and running.One reason why the shares have not gone through the roof can be found on the PVG financial pages of various portals. They all show the past five years profit and loss of ARK prior to the PVG RTO. PVG still owning a chain of vets,incorrect they have been sold. The forecast section is also blank.If the average investor looked at those pages they would move on in a flick.All of that will get sorted eventually but it doesn't inspire confidence right now.

[hydrus] 30/6/2016 20:57

No idea re share price ginger, something no one can predict or control.

[hydrus] 30/6/2016 20:57

From 2nd June:"The contract is to supply the Company's preventative healthcare program for pets, branded in the US as "Premier Pet Care Plan" ("PPCP"), to VPI's member hospitals numbering over 600 across 15 States, located primarily in the South East of the US.The initial 5-year agreement is to introduce PPCP to VPI's member hospitals and the target over the contract period is to reach at least 200,000 pets on plan."If they have similar targets for the contract with Merritt announced yesterday for 9,000 strong membership then they would be targeting 3,000,000 pets over a 5 year period. The mind boggles.

[ginger_ninja1] 30/6/2016 15:50

Looks like we might finish at an all time high today. I'm hanging on for bigger and better news as I'm an investor and not a trader. Does anyone know what a short term share price might be once the city gets hold of it?

[pet lover] 28/6/2016 15:37

I don't think the markets are keeping up with events at PVG.RNS 24/4 Nordic region team starts selling.RNS 06/6 600 clinics in the USA RNS 09/6 France launched RNS 28/6 9000 clinics in the USA.It's inconceivable that yet more clinic / hospital contracts will not be won over the next few years.They should provide yet more growth that can't be calculated today.10,000 was way beyond my wildest dreams.The speed of sign ups is truly breathtaking.My only beef I have is their appears to still be no forecasts or broker notes in the public domain.Anyone got an idea when this might surface.

[ginger_ninja1] 28/6/2016 13:42

One super happy investor!

[lauders] 28/6/2016 12:33

Should have bought! I decided to opt for gold instead. Well done for your faith here holders. Still watching with great interest!

[hydrus] 28/6/2016 10:20

This quote from the boss of a very large US company gives insight into why the pet plan is so helpful for veterinary supply companies. Essentially it helps them shift more vaccine products as pet plans ensure much greater compliance from vet owners. A win for everyone. Bobby Mins, President of MVS, commented:"I see the Premier Pet Care Plan as a great opportunity for Merritt as a Distributor as this will significantly improve compliance rates on the key healthcare products with a consequent increase in sales."

[pet lover] 28/6/2016 10:18

Today's contract win increases PVG'S vets under contract by a factor of C: 9.6 times. Over the period October 2017 - 2022 plan sales should rise by the same amount.Today so far the companies stock price has risen by 25%. Clearly the market demands a very large discount to what may or may not happen in the years ahead.The share price movement since 8AM has now factored in 2% of that 9.6 times. Over the next five years all being equal that should disappear and the shares should in theory at least stand in 9.6 times higher than today due to this one contract. It will be interesting to look back in 2022.Todays 2% is the start of a revaluation of PVG.Give it a month or two and I would expect the share price to track towards a total 10% up from 2%.(90% discount to today's news). In pound shillings and pence that equals over another pound on the share price.Everything this company does seems extremely professional it might now be the time to appoint a descent broker and get some numbers out in the open.The growth rate starting in October when all these recent contracts kick in should see me and the hound putting the V sign up to the area manager at work with a bit of luck.🌞ӽ74;

[errollc] 28/6/2016 09:42

This is the start of the story...lots more to come, I suspect. This will be a highly cash generative business, which will pay dividends (remember those?) or be taken out for sure. Good luck to you all.

[hydrus] 28/6/2016 09:00

Petlover I agree that institutions will start to take note now, fantastic work by management. A very exciting future.

[hydrus] 28/6/2016 08:58

Lomax - I may be being optimistic about profits it's hard to know. We are estimating the fee per plan PVG gets and also as this agreement is with a veterinary supply company they will take a slice. However it is evident that a) there is nothing better on the market as massive US companies are leaping on the pet plan product like a tramp on chips b) PVG is worth considerably more than a paltry £25m.The quality of recurring revenues is another positive here as Petlover points out. I can see PVG being acquired by I just hope it's a few years down the line when the share price is considerably further north than it is now.

[lomax99] 28/6/2016 08:48

Added more first thing. Still a fraction of my CVSG holding, however if profits get anywhere near 'profits in the tens of millions' then this will be another multi-bagger.....