Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[marvin9] 07/1/2017 11:08

Mmmmmm Plexus, one of my tips from last year, done well out of that one I have.


My Tip for this year: PPG

Ny Boy tipped: Chal

[marvin9] 07/1/2017 10:58

Hows CHAL DOING?

Remember, the stock ramped on here, a certain ramper boasting he was heavily adding more on a daily basis.

[marvin9] 07/1/2017 10:54

Me and Fat Tony have nothing to say until the 12th, you Rampers enjoy your moment, short as t will be

[leoneobull] 07/1/2017 10:54

Steve73 I believe you were interested in balance sheet related posts from lseHere is oneFed up of Press continually mocking PMO Mkt Cap £300m to debt $2.6bn- a false analytical ratio–whilst ignoring the deeply discounted H1 B/Sheet N/Assets of $855k (after $1.1bn w/down of Solan 2015). They rarely mention the actual gearing ratio and its forecast for 2016. IMO PMO WILL be trading at a 65-70% discount to Net Assets of +£1bn by Dec 16. Cheap takeover target, M&A picking up Siccar. IMO DYOR - forecast N/Assets to debt gearing ratio of 200% for 2016 i.e B/sheet = $1.3bn to $2.6bn debt - thereby nullifying D4E-not required–with Oil stable at $40-45/b. Solan uplift creates more value & more effective than a rights issue - PMO has no liquidity problems as did ENQ IMO DYOR. Possible Solan impairment w/back +$400m compared to ($1.1bn 2015 w/down) . Solan should start 2017 with P2 & 25kbpd, opex $10, Oil $45, No tax, (payback 8 yrs DCF@ 6.5% or 5 yrs $60 Oil) & reserves increase for securitisation. Add H2 profit say $60-80m, plus Solan w/back +$400m to H1 N/Assets $855k - gives a B/Sheet uplift to $1.3bn N/Assets IMO H2 profit created by Ave prod'n should hit 82kbpd (ex P2) giving full yr O/p circa 72kbpd within guideline. H2 Output up +50% from 2015 Eon benefit +4kbpd from Glenelg - upto +18kbpd (for 6 mths), part off set P2 spluttering. Mkt press concentrates on 3 days Solan lost to HSE – utterly divisive. Income benefiting in higher Oil/Gas ratio - H1 Gas was 36% of output H2 Gas down to 26% of greater output = greater cash generation – pushing sales +$550-600m and Gross Margin back to +40%, H1 sales of $393m were a complete disaster. Income now rebalancing to match investment and profitability recovering.H1 sales extenuate the trading imbalance of Inc NOT matching Cap Inv i.e least cap intensive assets Gas ($9/boe) - producing a disproportionately large % of output gives H1 a 10% trading gross margin and strangled revenue. No real output gained from massive cap Inv - Solan (2wks o/p?) & Eon only 2 mths. All change H2 = very bullish trading update, trading cash +ve, debt of the down curve, even with Catcher project. None of this gets a mention - sorry to be long winded. TD has the opportunity to showcase a trading turnaround with a VERY very bullish trading update however, above all PMO needs to finally address the refinancing – put it to bed once and for all – after the 8th Nov panic RNS. GLA.GN - PMO forecast 2016 Net Assets $1.3bn Debt more manageable - not so bad then is it? Not £300m Mkt Cap

[leoneobull] 07/1/2017 10:44

Bonds looking good

[deanroberthunt] 07/1/2017 10:32

ENQ more than doubled post refinancing......

[leoneobull] 07/1/2017 10:06

Today 09:55Price: 83.75rabbitmankeeper1128 postsinfo only - convertible bondsThought post this explanation for those posters not sure what they actually are... As the name implies, convertible bonds, or converts, give the holder the option to exchange the bond for a predetermined number of shares in the issuing company. When first issued, they act just like regular corporate bonds, albeit with a slightly lower interest rate. Because convertibles can be changed into stock and thus benefit from a rise in the price of the underlying stock, companies offer lower yields on convertibles. If the stock performs poorly there is no conversion and an investor is stuck with the bond's sub-par return (below what a non-convertible corporate bond would get). As always, there is a tradeoff between risk and return. Conversion Ratio The conversion ratio (also called the conversion premium) determines how many shares can be converted from each bond. This can be expressed as a ratio or as the conversion price, and is specified in the indenture along with other provisions. From my limited knowledge and also how I have been informed the Convertible Bond holders are the least important aspect of refinancing package, hence left to end in negotiations. can't see problem sorting them out as they bought the things in the first place and know the rules. That's why it was likely just an "ad hoc" group in "discussions". Not like the banks lending us squillions etc. May be they will offer them just a little sweetener to stop them squealing but won't be much I would imagine? Would be very surprised in they haven't been sorted by now. I have sneaky feeling that share price rise is more to do with leaking news that the refinancing package is now 100% and publication imminent? I wouldn't be surprised with RNS Monday, I hope so as would like it separate from TU on 12th for max effect x 2. If not Monday there sure all will be revealed on 12th. Remember when announced will till take couple of months to implement it all but the Market not bothered about that. They just want to see security of company and I for one think it will be a great deal for PMO and for along period. 2017 will be PMO's comeback year, finally! IMHO DYOR

[deanroberthunt] 07/1/2017 09:23

TARGETS AT POS, 120p, then 160p

[deanroberthunt] 07/1/2017 09:21

Plexus breakout, very similar to PMO.



NO ADVICE INTENDED

[ny boy] 07/1/2017 09:00

Marvin..are you on drugs?

[steve73] 07/1/2017 07:13

Paul, remember most (all?) of PMO's oil will be priced at Brent+/-, which is currently trading at a slightly higher premium against WTI than for most of last year (c. +3 vs +2)

[steve73] 07/1/2017 07:09

Thanks Leon - I don't follow LSE so appreciate any info that gets discussed over there....

btw, has anyone there mentioned the Solan problems..? My assumptions are based solely on the offloading schedule (with no info on actual volumes offloaded - only the maximum possible)

[leoneobull] 07/1/2017 06:16

Steve73 I expect refinancing update and outperformance across portfolio due to eon acquisition (since this was the message from the November 19th update) to be balanced against continuing probs at solan p2. Plus catcher update should be OK. I believe the market will focus on refinancing and poo prospects with possible further positive looking to financial results in February that revised poo projections could lead to significant balance sheet repair contributing to major rerating.All imov based on what we already know from pmo in public domain plus basil's research on balance sheet on lse

[marvin9] 07/1/2017 04:00

Oh dear oh dear, Solan got mega problems, who would have thought it, wonder if they have checked for a blockage of xmas pud and custard in the pumps?

Its not over until the fat lady sings; in this case Fat Tony.

Great price to sell and run must admit.

Apart from that, 'I have nothing to say until the 12th , you rampers deserve a bit of duck waddling time, make the most of it ;) .....

[steve73] 07/1/2017 02:55

The DEMAREST TIDE support vessel which has been hanging about Solan for the past week has now departed. Still no sign of an offloading tanker.

The last offload was 13th Dec (25 days ago), so if we were producing at 10kbopd the tank would be approaching full by now. Clearly P2 problems are not yet resolved, and it will be this that is helping to drag on the share price

Next weeks update should clarify the situation there, as well as the refinancing.

[seangwhite] 07/1/2017 00:41

Nice bounce today in line with some others in the sector. We must wonder if our esteemed BOD can pull a rabbit out of the hat on the 12th to justify such share price movement.VGLTA

[bakedbean57] 06/1/2017 22:17

Just thought you'd be needing a new cat after all them bounces !

[hearts1] 06/1/2017 22:13

Marvin, stop being such a plank. You called it wrong, end of.

[marvin9] 06/1/2017 20:38

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

[marvin9] 06/1/2017 20:38

I'm not discussing PMO until the 12th But will add , your one in a million

[puzzler2] 06/1/2017 20:27

Marvin - sorry mate, but I really don't get what you're constantly moaning about? Since I bought at about 52p, six weeks ago, the share price of this share has only gone upwards - what's not to like about that?