Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[onedb1] 13/11/2018 07:40

Not wrong there Whiskey .

[whiskeyinthejar] 13/11/2018 00:47

I had a look at AHL website. They claim to be rather sophisticated, referencing connections with Oxford University and nobel prize winning economics.

It could be about risk. PMO is most volatile share in ftse 250 (highest beta). They could be offsetting risk in some sophisticated mix of markets. Price of oil is linked to dollar, inflation, fx etc.

But their most common approach (44%) is traditional trend following.

They say:

"Trends have been observed in markets for centuries and a body of academic literature has built up to explain their persistence. Trend following strategies use sophisticated computer algorithms to identify trends, which allow them to trade hundreds of diverse markets simultaneously, and avoid biases introduced by human emotions.

The AHL Diversified Programme has a track record spanning around two decades. Strong performance has been delivered in a variety of market environments because of the programme’s ability to profit from trends, either up or down, in around 400 liquid markets across a variety of asset classes. "

So, in their method, they "avoid biases introduced by human emotions". Which imo means just using numbers and not using any human judgment.

If you were to just look at pmo chart, and not use any judgment, you'd say trend is down and bet that it would continue.

I'd say it's only by reading the company news and using your judgment that you'd say that the share price is crazy low and should be way higher.

If they are trend trading, they wouldn't be reducing their short until the trend rises- as theyve done in the past. So they'll close their position as share price rises, not when it reaches a target like 100p or when a RNS is due.

[onedb1] 12/11/2018 23:38

Put it in perspective we have had up to 15% shorts in the past at the time bbs were adamant it was tragedy so in the defunct iii boards I explained the convertible hedge strategy and that not all shorts are pure directional but in fact many are just hedges . Down to 3.1% now , so let's get real it's a small number and normal Also AHL is a Quant house so unlike Marshall who was short on fundamentals these guys short due to strategy , ie could be market risk hedging and using PMo for its beta . For all I know they could be long Crude . The CFTc reports still have large net long positions from hedge funds . 1.3% for the biggest UK hedge fund is nothing . No need to start conspiracy theories . Plus why the need to use terms one doesn't understand. Lager writes about ' naked shorting ' lol . Like AHL can't find Pmo from a sec lending desk ????? On my goodness .. why would they need to sell without borrowing ? It's a straight short probably a hedge for something . . Good night gents . Tweeting Don brought us back to Friday crude prices . I was seeing a RSI bullish divergence for PMO so this tweet was poorly timed . 15th op update though .

[nav_mike] 12/11/2018 20:05

AHL's 1.32% short is equivalent to 10.75m shares, give or take - thats quite a bold position, and twice that of any other shorter on the list

Given they only went above .5% in Mid-October, they either have a real downer on PMO or they are hedged with something. Warrants?

[marvinridesagain] 12/11/2018 19:56

Keep posting them Short increases Nav; Once they start to reduce, that means Jabba has yet again given them a nod and its time to fill your boots; historically.

[nav_mike] 12/11/2018 19:52

As reported on

Anyone looking at SETS today could see shorters were all over this like a rash today, way before the afternoon tumble.

A relentless supply of sell orders coming onto the book, and constant hitting of the bid. These are not sellers who are fussed about getting the best price possible

With Trump collapsing the Brent price back to unchanged, more fun and frolics tomorrow

[lageraemia] 12/11/2018 19:46

That's their net short or gross short Mike?

[nav_mike] 12/11/2018 19:40

You guys probably getting sick of me saying the same news but AHL Partners increased by another .11% or approx 900k shares

They are really behind this relentless downward pressure - perhaps they have a hotline to the bigmouth Trump, and know when hes next going to open his gob

[lageraemia] 12/11/2018 19:15

The US Tight oil industry might not be so chuffed at his tweeting....

[duckdown] 12/11/2018 18:52

Agree Rogk, he's trying to avoid a downturn now but the future implications will be severe. Better to have a $70-80 range to encourage investment. I think OPEC know this and hopefully will do the right thing.

[duckdown] 12/11/2018 18:41

Trump tweeting - trying to put pressure on OPEC & send the oil price down.

[eentweedrie] 12/11/2018 17:58

Ladies, pls keep it civil. And if you want to droll on about your non PMO related, repetitive, never ending Brexit arguments, pls do us a favour and create your own Brexit board. Thanks in advance

[mercer95] 12/11/2018 17:30

Yes asa8, whatever you say, good contribution, your parent would be proud.

[duckdown] 12/11/2018 17:06

I think the DOW shedding 450points didn't help.

[onedb1] 12/11/2018 16:56

Very weird crude up 2% as I type yet Pmo just decided to flop and stay flat . Anything above $50 is cash generative hope that is clear

[dealer1972] 12/11/2018 16:32

Agree, given Brent at almost $71 a barrel! I would have thought oil stocks would be a good call given oil was so oversold last week. Will be interesting to see if AHL and Marshall Wace have been continuing to increase their shorts.Dangerous game this close to results.

[lageraemia] 12/11/2018 16:28

Tolmount looking like an increasingly shrewd piece of business by TD and the board...

hxxps://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/tolmount-prospect-north-sea/