Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[adg] 16/2/2018 17:09

Marvin, when the FI takes off (when not if) it will make a lot of people a lot of money - a few years to go yet mind... probably just in time for my retirement !!

[stansmith3] 16/2/2018 16:55

jalenkomaybe, but you are speculating, the drawdown is notequally speculating the spr drawdown could be increased, they did that at least three times last year?opec has its limitsanyway poo perky right now, lets hope the predicted small draw occurs next week

[jelenko] 16/2/2018 16:00

Stan,


OPEC will mirror the drawdown with a supply cut of equal size. Net effect zero

[american idiot] 16/2/2018 15:43

Thanks Crystball.

Appropriate name :-)

[crystball] 16/2/2018 15:36

The Scott Spirit tanker is on its way to Catcher expected to arrive at 0600 tomorrow.

[stansmith3] 16/2/2018 15:11

reducing the spr will affect the price of oil, its classed as supplythe bigger drawdowns last year hugely affected the price to the downsidethey have a lot of, not good news

[jelenko] 16/2/2018 14:53

There is a lot of noise about US shale at the moment and it's impact on Oil prices. In my view, OPEC and the Russians are smarter than that. The Saudi's need oil at these levels and will do what it takes to achieve that. They let the Shale boys hurt them before, not this time. And Let' s face it, if the Russians played any part in getting Trump elected they can surely sort the oil price. I also see that in order to meet the budget over the next few years Trump has apparently authorised SPR drawdown. This won't impact the oil price, OPEC won't let it. A reducing SPR, love it.

[uen_investor2] 16/2/2018 13:43

Dont miss UEN. Up again today and no more than 10,000 shares avaliable online.. They are already asking the full amount again to be filled

At 13m quid its hard to see a downside.

3 - 4 million shares available to the market. This on its own means there is very little available for large chunks. No warrants, no dilution

This will keep rising,

Here is why.

This ticks every box:
Excellent revenue.
Rejected takeover at 250p per share
Debt wiped shortly
Dividend. (5p per share paid in November)
Proved reserves.
2200 bopd production.
Bod have plenty of skin in the game.
Cpr due.
Drilling underway on high cos prospect.
Very small free float of shares.
Few shares in issue.
Well underpinned at a mcap far exceeding what we're currently at.
Exponential upside.
Not on the radar....YET!
Fabulous entry point
Own their own refinery - 30 million US conservative valuation on its own
UEN oil sold at a PREMIUM to brent


Worth reading this over and over again..

hxxp://www.uralsenergy.com/archive/presentations/Urals_Inv_Presentation_20_11_2017.pdf?v=231117

Urals remains one of the highest ranked E&P companies (4th) on the AIM market by 2P Reserves
Russian 2P Reserves volumes dominate the AIM E&P sector and continue to trade at a significant discount
to the market average
Urals generates more operating cash flow per barrel produced than its AIM listed peers
Urals 2P Reserves trade at a discount to the market and its regional Russian and FSU peer groups
Urals have continued to outperform its Russian peer group during 2017

[jelenko] 16/2/2018 12:22

Begorrah, The figure they talk about is Net Debt, so they are deducting current cash from debt and reaching a figure. On that basis all the cash coming in will reduce net debt. So the £200m from CBH + various sales proceeds will reduce Net debt. What we don't know until the accounts are published is have the paid down money owed to various parties.

[gregpeck7] 16/2/2018 12:21

Same pattern.. uen keeps rising while the fire here keeps going out.. serious antics going on with sets here . Manipulated imo and bears in control... gits.

[gepetto100] 16/2/2018 11:31

I agree Badger

[begorrah88] 16/2/2018 11:16

I don't think the markets will believe PMO is cash positive and paying down debts until it is formally reported.

It was expected that PMO was going to have paid down some debt besides the asset sales in 2017 and it didn't happen.

First we had the big payments to the re-financiers then we had big Solan write downs

Neither of which had been warned about so until the market can actually see proof that TD is paying down the debt, rather than just lip service, he won't be believed

[bakedbean57] 16/2/2018 11:11

My point exactly...

[fireplace22] 16/2/2018 11:07

Thought we were supposed to be cash flow positive post Catcher at anything above $44? With the hedges and the likelihood of more asset sales I'd have thought we should be recognised for having some degree of credible debt repayment ability?

[american idiot] 16/2/2018 10:59

Certainly the share price is telling us something at the moment.

Every single rise is sold into within hours.

Any rise in oil is ignored.

Any FTSE rise means nothing to PMO.

Whereas....

Any fall in oil and the share price is hammered accordingly

Any FTSE fall and the share price is hammered accordingly

The shareprice is back to where we were in mid-December with an increase of 40% more shares in issue.

I think the high debt here increases the risk massively short-term because of all the talk surrounding shale + the potential for oil to fall furthur. Shorts have a free run still IMO.

[begorrah88] 16/2/2018 10:50

This now becomes no more than a major punt on whether TD has cleared any debt in excess of the asset sales/CB debt clearing in the next update.

If he hasn't then PMO really will be a punchbag

[badger60] 16/2/2018 10:48

A huge increase in free-float shares added to a bit of manipulation and general oil volatility/sentiment explains much of the limp PMO share price performance. The CB's no longer have a stranglehold over the share price, so once the free-float is absorbed, hopefully the real value with be reflected. The priority is to pay down the debt, and a meaningful reduction this year towards the $2bn mark would give the share price a huge shot in the arm, imo, as a circa £500mio mkt cap is way too cheap.

[begorrah88] 16/2/2018 10:47

In the last 21 months POO has risen 50%+

PMO is at the same share price as it was then

Granted Solan was a major balls up but Catcher and Zama have added no value at all nor has the refinancing

Something stinks

[begorrah88] 16/2/2018 10:41

AI

Based on how PMO & TLW used to act as a canary in the coalmine for POO I'd suggest we are about to see another dive down

[american idiot] 16/2/2018 10:38

Thanks Steve.

Mercer, US oil production is predicted to rise throughout 2018 to basically offset increased demand for oil in 2018.



I dont want to sound bearish and am definately not talking up a position as I am flat right now but dont ignore the data coming out from the US.

US Rig count is increasing as well.(albiet it far lower levels than of a few years ago)



The problems seem more structural now.

US Shale Oilers v OPEC + the rest of the world.

I think the days of $100/b oil have gone forever barring a war or similar.

[gregpeck7] 16/2/2018 10:23

They have walked this to almost red again....

That said my other big investment (UEN) doing well... 2200 bopd, almost no debt... 13m mkt cap
PMO 80,000 bopd 2.* billion debt - 540m mket cap..

All in - as a high level comparison

UEN 2200 bopd + around 40m p2 reserves 15m mkt cap (with debt)
PMO 80,000 bopd + around 1.3 billion P2? 3000m mkt cap (with debt)

I do wonder if the small caps are where the value is at the moment...

GP

[begorrah88] 16/2/2018 10:12

So when we have todays $1-2 dollar drop in POO that'll send PMO to mid 60's presumably?

Did TD hack somebody off with the CBH deal? did he tread on somebody's toes and is now getting punished for it [not him of course but his shareholders]

No II's want to touch it, no volume selling [or no reported II's lowering] but somehow, the book is being walked down day after day.

I don't believe it is consecutive small holders deciding, day after day, in an orderly queue, that they want to sell their small holdings through the book.

I also don't believe it is big holders getting out as why wouldn't they have done it in larger lumps

This can't be a 'managed' dilution and absorbtion of all those extra shares as the outcome is just as dramatic a fall as if they'd done it in one day.

So what is happening here?

[mercer95] 16/2/2018 09:25

Shale production will level off soon,world population increasing year on year, demand for oil in emerging markets increasing should offset the increase in shale production IMO Countries like India & Africa are playing catch-up with the western world, updating infrastructure & social mobility in those countries can only be good for the oil price