Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fireplace22] 15/2/2018 07:46

Thanks Steve interesting. Presumably there would still be the extra requirement for oil to produce plastics, chemicals, fertilizers etc. I believe that to be about 8% of oil usage at present, presumably that will rise significantly by 2050.

[steve73] 15/2/2018 07:38

FWIW, I have, in the past, made some fairly detailed extrapolations/estimates of global energy trends based on the information in BP's 2016 Energy Database.

I concluded that TOTAL energy consumption would double from the present (2016) of c. 283 MMBoe/d of which oil is 32% (92 MMbpd, or 4250 MMte) and fossil fuels in total are 86% (Coal 3840 MMtoe, Gas 3150 MMtoe), by around 2050, at which time oil would represent just 11% (61 MMbpd, 2800 MMte), and total fossil fuels would be just 30% (Coal 2200, Gas 3200 MMtoe).

As you can see oil consumption is still estimated to be relatively high in 2050 (around 2/3 of todays) even though its % contribution has dropped significantly.

Coal consumption is expected to peak at around 2025, Oil around 2031 (at c. 110 MMbpd), and Gas around 2040.

One of the main drivers of this estimate is a desire to limit total atmospheric CO2 emissions to around 2x the historical-to-date total.

These estimates are based on renewables (principally Solar PV & Wind, and to a lesser extent Nuclear & Hydro) continuing to contribute increasingly from 2016 14% (as Solar 70 MMtoe, Wind 220 MMtoe, other 1,600 MMtoe) to around 70% in 2050 (Solar 10,500 MMtoe, Wind 3,900 MMtoe, others 3,900 MMtoe).

Clearly I'm expecting Solar to increase some 150x in the next 30 or so years, which may be a little too ambitious, although it has been doubling every 18months or so during the past decade.

BP's own conclusions are reasonably similar to the above, although I would assume there was a lot more effort on their part).

[begorrah88] 15/2/2018 06:52

POO up and Polygon cleared out again on the .5%+ shorttracker

Maybe a better day?

[marvin9] 15/2/2018 04:22

No country has yet got the internal infrastructure to suddenly stop using petrol, Diesel, Oil and suddenly switch to using battery power for cars and is nothing more than a novelty at this time.

UK example UK:
We don't have enough power stations to meet supply and demand we have to rely on private companies such as PPG to pump power into the grid to help supply demand. The last coal powered plant is to close in 2025 and be replaced by so called gas and other fuels; no plans have yet been made to build any.

So.. How can the UK change over to Electric cars when our installed power cable network would not meet this added demand?

We don't have the power to charge up cars, we don't have charging points for cars and where would they put them within busy city centres?

The charge time is in hours rather than a quick 5 minutes putting fuel in your tank.

Can you imagine cars across the world queuing up to re-charge battery cars in busy city centres such as London, New York and other major Cities across the world? It’s not going to happen. Battery technology has a long way to go before it replaces Oil fuels.

Where is all the Lithuania going to come from? We don’t have enough in the world to supply demand and I don’t see mining stocks soaring in that sector.
Then you have tarmac, car tyres, plastics and other uses for oil in developing countries that are needed in greater demand.
Nope, I think oil will see us lot out before demand stops.

[steve73] 15/2/2018 02:32

Hummm.. Good news the Saudi's cutting further, but if they're only doing it to get a high oil price for their 5% float, then surely it's all a bit transparent.

IIRC they have claimed production reserves of 100+ years, so by floating off 5% they will effectively be attempting to generate >5 years of revenue/profits immediately. I really don't expect the world to be using the present quantities of oil in 100+ years, perhaps even sooner (perhaps just 20-30 yrs until demand starts to drop significantly and continuously), so I'm struggling to see how they'll value all these reserves.

But I think that once they get their sale away, they'll then ramp production back up to at least their committed levels, if not higher, to try put a stop to the Shale producers again. We have perhaps 12-18 months of a reasonable oil price during which we need to get our debts down.. I'm hoping we don't take on any more debt during this period.

[bakedbean57] 15/2/2018 00:07

Oil back up $2 post report so in theory that's a 14% rise for PMO tomorrow if all things in the world are equal not manipulated no conspiracies and fair... I do hope so but a feeing the conspiracy theorists might be right but line the excuses up as we are just a bunch of nut jobs with l2... ;)

[marvin9] 14/2/2018 20:42

Their ya go:

[marvin9] 14/2/2018 20:40

Missed that good news, good post, that will create a big panic fart from Jabba when he is forced to roll over and think of another way to prevent a rise in the share price.

[bgwesley] 14/2/2018 20:28

Maybe he's right this time, Marv - the Saudis are cutting an additional 100,000 bpd from next month.

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Vows-To-Cut-More-Production-To-Stabilize-Oil-Market.html.


(Sorry, link doesn't work)

[marvin9] 14/2/2018 19:57

Mercer; your like the kiss of death!

Every time you ramp, the share price crashes!

SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

[mercer95] 14/2/2018 19:22

Oil above $60 & US markets on turbo, strong opening for PMO tomorrow GLA

[prewar] 14/2/2018 19:16

Hi Begorrah, owe you a response to 35809.

Must admit am slightly confused, yesterday you were ignoring me, today you're 'reaching out', what's a girl to think? Valentines Day and your change of heart, coincidence maybe but then the e-card dropped and I knew it was more than that....

Initially I was unsure who it was, it was after all anonymous, then behind the ripped torso I noticed the monitor, complete with PMO trades with happy and sad faces pointing at them. Only then did the penny drop!

I've only got one word for you Begorrah, HENCH.

xx

[prewar] 14/2/2018 19:09

Hi Leo, re 35810, sorry not really my bag, bit too detailed for me.

My timeline is medium term here, 3-5 years maybe, haven't got time to trade daily so try and look only at the big picture. My view FWIW is there a number of big ticket items driving the SP, top three would be
1. POO
2&3 Cost of servicing debt and XR.

Obviously your question was supply and demand related and thus an influencer on point 1. In my time horizon I can't see too much impact of electrification and the current worldwide growth looks promising for demand side. Supply side - lots of moving parts but I'd hope Opec keep going with current policy and the previous downturn has reduced investment so should translate into reduced supply. Only fly in the ointment is shale....

PMO last few days seems to be hit from all sides, Strong £, reducing POO and cost of debt rising. The last factor should also dampen down the ability of shale to get financed so a bit of a double edged sword.

If I had to add two more big ticket factors to make a top 5 it'd be the pesky manipulators and their counterparties, joint fourth most important factor!

GLA, looking good for tomorrow.

[prewar] 14/2/2018 18:55

Hi Bean, thanks for response via 35817, I'd slightly tweak your view in that I think they'd be hedging non-USD revenues or too, or more sensibly net of costs and revenues.

Guess North Sea gas would fall into that category, have always seen that denominated in p/therm.

Some people forget that any position in PMO IMO is largely in USD assets so FX has to be a factor. Sure it's net post debt servicing cashflows that drive equity valuation and so a degree of natural hedging but potential for big swings in GBP share price off the back of that exposure.

[crystball] 14/2/2018 17:39

I suspect a tanker may be taking on oil at Catcher in the next couple of days. Does anyone have confirmation of this?

[american idiot] 14/2/2018 15:59

Better than expected crude inventories.

Brent up a little and so is PMO.

Nice turnaround today. Looked real bad earlier.

[oilretire] 14/2/2018 15:23

Well that was a very depressing break as far as share price goes, the real break was brilliant as ever though....
Anyway, I guess we could have expected the share price to soften but we're still cash flow positive above 50 FFS!! so seems over done
Also FG had a chance of beating me back but it hasn't..... which can't be helping.

[american idiot] 14/2/2018 14:32

I much prefer Enquest to PMO at present simply because their Kraken FPSO is up and running with production pretty much ramped up to expected levels. Oil offloads every 9 - 12 days at present.

Took a long at 32.9p there last week. Not even had chance of 50p profit since ! lol

[gunsofmarscapone] 14/2/2018 14:15

Anyone else spotted the anomalous trend in Rockhopper? Very very interesting.

I think there is a fundamental reason behind it.

[begorrah88] 14/2/2018 14:10

The added angle is that when the small oilers bounce - they are being gutted at present irrespective of what POO is doing - we know from experience that TLW & ENQ bounce faster and harder than PMO

The market also knows that which is why PMO is its' chosen punchbag

[american idiot] 14/2/2018 14:03

200 day MA at around 65p would surely provide at least some short-term support. Thats the most positive I can be at present.

Markets rocking now on todays US CPI report over increased inflation fears. If however you read the breakdown virtually all of the increase in US inflation in Dec / Jan was from higher oil prices. As oil has now lost the whole of the Xmas rally then surely inflation worries should ebb away.

In reality we all know inflation worries will only subside once the big boys in the market place reverse their short positions.

What horrible markets at present.

[leoneobull] 14/2/2018 13:22

Poo decline may continue a bit but looking ahead to seasonal factors beginning of driving season, strong global economic growth, I see us shale production growth being offset against demand increase highest since 2011 and Venezuelan production falling off a cliff