Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ua36] 22/4/2017 13:21

Who knows Leonel - ask Tlw holders if they thought doing a massive equity raise at a price 90% off their 2012 highs (and at serious discount to the prevailing share price when announced) was likely and I'm sure they would've said no chance! Well, apart from the crowds of people who knew and were shorting it and guaranteeing profits of course.

Wouldn't surprise me to see a raise of £200-£300million as a final eff you to existing shareholders, could be enough to cover Premier's capex requirements for Tolmount for example (assuming farmout) - but that's the risk you take given the stock market is really a capital raising mechanism at this end of the market spectrum.

I wouldn't personally (after the conv. Bond fiasco) consider that a low share price would restrict them doing a raise, as long as they could get it underwritten I'm sure they'd frame it as for the better company good whilst happily diluting holders into oblivion. Maybe I'm too cynical though!

[leoneobull] 22/4/2017 11:58

Ua36. But the mkt cap for pmo is so low would an equity raise be realistic? I say no until share price at multiples of present levels Also catcher and conversion of equity will reduce debt significantly

[ua36] 21/4/2017 22:47

Tlw Opex costs are about half of Premier's (one benefit of African projects!) and they've higher reserves (plus they've just recapatilised with new conv. bonds last year and then equity raising) so in some ways I can appreciate why the difference is wide.

Tlw cost base is very low too - G&A only around $100million which is less than half of Premier's if I remember correctly. Think they sacked over half of their staff - how nice.

As it stand's they're less vulnerable to a weak oil price compared to Premier.

Should the difference be as wide as it is? Debatable.

Apart from the oil price, The main risk here at the moment is whether a similar equity raise is hiding in the shadows waiting to pounce after the refinance is complete. That seems 50/50 to me, tough to know for sure but the shorts position is a concern (as we saw with Tlw, the equity raise was clearly well known by lots of people who were trading on the information - illegal of course but typical of the information imbalance throughout the markets).

[leoneobull] 21/4/2017 17:45

Ua 36 agreed. But even at that level we will be giving tlw a serious run for their money in terms of production levels. And their mkt cap 7 x ours. This is an excellent recovery play post refinancing imov. Dyor. Pls note I hold the shares

[leoneobull] 21/4/2017 12:57

100000 a day of which catcher x 30000 tax free. Breakeven is not 50 us. That is point at which free cashflow generated pre catcher whilst we still paying for Capex

[deanroberthunt] 21/4/2017 12:12

and I think, last I hear, Emilio, Marvin is with your Momma.

[deanroberthunt] 21/4/2017 12:08

DROID alert

[deanroberthunt] 21/4/2017 11:48

sorry to say but a rights or similar is highly likely here, a la Tullow.

[deanroberthunt] 21/4/2017 11:47

yes, but, they are only just cashflow positive at Oil $53/barrel, so they can never pay off the repayments on the $3bn debt....you need to pick debt free or low debt Oilers, far more leverage to a recovering oil market

[leoneobull] 21/4/2017 11:30

Cause we will be producing 100000 next year boepd per day?

[deanroberthunt] 21/4/2017 11:25

all of these Oilers will multi mega bag over PMO...why hold this

AMER
JOG
SDX
AEX
RKH
HUR

[ua36] 21/4/2017 09:06

Hope the oil price doesn't fall any further else they may struggle to meet the revised covenants.

(wasn't that your line before you bought some Rogk?).

[oilandgas1] 21/4/2017 00:16

We ( I say we but I moved out of Pmo using it for my tax losses) should see Pmo start to steady and kick on when:

1) bonds sorted
2) refinance really actually signed off in may17( only been 9 months)
3) we get a solid update in solan ( too much sunk for the returns so far and may never break even)
4) an update on catcher FPSO and first oil schedules.
5) debt peaks in jun17 and then starts to be paid fine.

High level estimated schedule
17May:AGM,Ops update & sign off refinance
Jun17: Catcher Fpso news
Jun17: Tolmount FID
13July: Ops update & sea lion & catcher burgman well drills
Sep17: catcher first oil

With gbp getting stronger it is bad for Pmo (as usd is primary currency). Also Poo under pressure need $55+

Looking to get back in around 60p soon.

Check SDX out great upside and more news coming. DYOR.

[marvin9] 20/4/2017 20:33

Sack fatty and hire the monkey

[leoneobull] 20/4/2017 18:22

The retail bonds touched 91p Screaming steady ship and refinancing in bag......sooner or later lol

[deanroberthunt] 20/4/2017 15:30

I can think of 10 oilers off the top of my head that kill this by country miles

[begorrah88] 20/4/2017 15:17

Really piling the small AT sells onto PMO today.

POO dropped half a dollar which gave the 'reason' to walk it down 75p now that POO has gone back up half a dollar? you know the rest - AT sells continue.

Now, is TD waiting until he gets the nod from the shorters etc before he announces the bond holder outcome? whichever way that might go as the longer it goes unannounced the more the likelihood of a problem.

[fez77] 20/4/2017 10:11

Thanks. I've only dipped my toes in it so I will be quite sanguine if it turns out to be a roller-coaster!

[begorrah88] 20/4/2017 10:02

Fez

I'd go along with Puzzlers summary with the caveat that PMO is generally considered to be flaky with regard to reaching its expectations and timescales.

Solan has proved to be a disaster for the money spent on it and there will always be a lingering worry about Catcher until it is up and running at projected levels. Whether it reaches first oil in 2017 will either send the share price up or push it down so a lot rides on that.

IMHO