Premier Miton Share Discussion Threads

[its the oxman] 15/11/2023 11:33

Remains well oversold at these levels. Just hope bottom now in place. If good times ever return expect this to multi back.

[nicd] 14/11/2023 10:53

Looks a good reward ratio!

[flyer61] 14/11/2023 10:14

BM rising today as well. Maybe it is just a brokers note (somebody of repute) that's coming out and saying the sector is oversold.

[rogen83] 14/11/2023 09:52

What’s the Brooks MacDonald link Flyer?

I purchased an awful lot of PMI two weeks ago in 100-150k chunks. I was hoping I had personally done a lot of the heavy lifting of clearing out the seller. So every 1p rise in the share price is significant to me now.

[flyer61] 14/11/2023 09:51

Certainly feels that way.....

[rogen83] 14/11/2023 09:50

PMI earnings multiple has derated to about 10x, versus 13-15 historically. However versus peers PMI has derated (ABDN, JUP, ASHM have all rerated in the last month) where PMI has gone nowhere.

PMI offers an acquirer a pure play UK franchise with a solid performance track record, and strong brand. They are deliberately not benchmarking themselves to the broader indices so they can target alpha across a variety of economic cycles. I just think it’s a good and profitable business which is well undervalued now (admittedly like a lot of uk small caps).

[bmcollins] 14/11/2023 09:44

I've always felt they were a strong takeover candidate, problem was I started buying too early so have done nothing but average down the past few months.
Looking at the volume something is surely afoot...

[flyer61] 14/11/2023 09:41

Wonder if anything is going on with Brooks McDonald?

[flyer61] 14/11/2023 09:30

I'm interested in your '20-30% higher valuation' based on peer comps Rogen83. Can you explain please.

[rogen83] 14/11/2023 09:26

It’s a coiled spring. Fundamental valuation is 20-30% higher based on peer comps.

Wild card would be an opportunistic takeover by a bigger fund manager

[flyer61] 14/11/2023 09:25

Or the dividends being held and someone has had a sniff of the results due 3 December.

Remember they have a very LARGE cash balance.

[bmcollins] 14/11/2023 09:07

Sphere
Very impressive volume today, I wonder if there is a research note out on them ?
Nevertheless this buying must have mopped up a lot of the perennial sellers.

[bmcollins] 14/11/2023 09:03

Sphere
Very impressive volume today, I wonder if there is a research note out on them ?
Nevertheless this buying must have mopped up a lot of the perennial sellers.

[chrisdgb] 14/11/2023 09:00

Yep good to see, a fantastic play on recovery.....

[sphere25] 14/11/2023 08:31

Had a go for a trade following the early buying in.

There was some decent buying at 50p yesterday that has moved the offer to 51p this morning. A noticeable sequence of buying very early on today has caught the eye. There are some decent chunks at 51p, 52p and someone paid through the offer of 52p as well buying 50k @ 52.9999p. Now some smaller buys going through close to the full ask on the offer at 53p. The offer is moving a great deal quicker than normal.

Just wondering - if they are coming in like this so early, has someone had a sniff of sellers clearing?

Might be wrong, but worth a go down here.

Stick my stop under 50p.

All imo
DYOR

[riverman77] 08/11/2023 16:57

One thing that not really discussed here is fund performance - last time I checked this was pretty poor across the board (many funds 3rd or 4th quartile over recent years}. This is key and can't see much of a revival until performance picks up.

[rogen83] 08/11/2023 16:35

Don’t spout nonsense. They announced cost initiatives in the last results, alongside the fact variable compensation to fund management and distribution teams fell 4-5m y/y given the fall in AuM. FTE wages and bonuses are the overriding costs to these businesses.

[flyer61] 08/11/2023 08:41

Ok that is all good and well however two simple questions.

Are they maximising the interest received on the cash in the balance sheet.

What dividend for 2024 are folks pencilling in. Ie how big a cut.

Nothing on cost cutting as AUM sinks is a clear worry in my books.

[sphere25] 06/11/2023 15:40

Thank you rumbers2. You are always too kind. Thank you Rogen83 too.

We are all looking for the bullish turn. It is very difficult to time that turn, and so very easy to just jump in, and then find that another low is hit. It looks like a waiting game for the majority. Maybe the majority are waiting for firmer trend changes, especially in light of how long these downtrends are persisting. Try and try and try again, and yet another new low comes along. It just beats the bullish out of you really.

There are further intriguing exchanges here hitting the books. This looks like the Bulls are trying to give the Bears a little fight here. Clearly it has all been one way, but look at the exchanges on Friday, and today we have:

510k mopped up at 51p
300k mopped up at 51.2p
200k @ 52.01p
1m mopped up at 52p

Volume just shy of 3m now, without any further delayed prints.

So someone or some parties are sat there trying to clear these sellers in size. If enough selling can be exhausted here, then there is scope for at least a technical bounce.

Barring some whopping big clear out here, the price could then meet another layer of sellers higher up. The top of the downtrend could be around 75p, but these buyers really need to sit here and keep mopping up.

These sellers are such a pain to clear. This market dynamic is very different to more recent downturns. We had these big capitulation type spikes (e.g. Brexit and Covid) down that almost cleared sellers in one go, so it wasn't a grind like it is now. It is almost like a battleground where you just have this relentless layered form of enemy troops, that just keep on coming, one layer after the next.

Nonetheless, it is still encouraging to see some resistance here. Some form of bottom and base would be nice to see, as per many others out there.

Watching in for further delayed prints. Ideally want to see a big clear out statement from the Bulls and then the Bulls taking control of 52p and 53p on the bid, and then it should carry some momentum in the short term.

But it is a stalemate at 52p at the moment.

An intriguing watch though.

All imo
DYOR

UPDATE: 07/11 11:39
Looks like the Bears have won the mini-battle and exhausted the little fight from the Bulls. They have taken control of 52p on the offer with significant shares available well under that offer, currently available to buy at 51p. Unless someone steps in here at 50p to mop up big, its another leg down. Unfortunately, just that sort of market. This will turn at some point. Stays on the watchlist watching for the turn. Enough posting here now. Hopefully back at better times!

[rogen83] 06/11/2023 08:00

agree, a good post. The crux of the debate really is about the shape of the market. Small and mid cap indices everywhere have been hammered during the monetary tightening phase. Clearly lots of depressed valuations out there across all sorts of sectors, and one could just buy a portfolio of 30 bombed out names. But this is what PMI offers with the added gearing of operational leverage into to better sentiment and flows going forwards. As we've seen with other small cap companies, if the market won't ascribe a fair multiple, then third party buyers will be interested in takeovers. PMI could easily be part of a bigger AM/WM roll-up, especially as big insurers and banks are crying out for more fee income given the inevitable roll over in rates will hit their interest income.

[rumbers2] 06/11/2023 07:35

A good man nearly always ahead of the curve, I always appreciate Sphere's posts.

[sphere25] 05/11/2023 18:58

A decent barrage of buying came in here on Friday. It looks like a barrage of sells the way the trades are logged on ADVFN. Due to continued sellers in size, there are so many shares available that the buy trades are hitting the book as sells. The interesting thing is the increased buying pressure.

Clearly this is on the back of central bank moves with bond yields now firmly signalling a topping out process. The markets have been signalling this, but this time there has been a pretty ferocious bounce in the the equity indices here. The FTSE250, small cap here in the UK and the small cap IWM in the US too. Even AIM has managed a bounce.

If you just look at the charts, all these moves just look like oversold technical bounces in firm downtrends. However, the relation to the moves in the bond yields might suggest this is the beginning of something more than that. Clearly we can't sit here and get all bullish on such a short term move, but there is some bigger buying coming into some smaller cap shares too, whereas it has been pretty much a graveyard with minimal activity for a while.

We are clearly in a normalised higher rate environment, so on one hand, it isn't like we are just going to shoot higher, but on the other, if the market believes flows could reverse with more assurance on yields having topped out, and some rate cuts next year, then maybe some bullish sentiment could start to appear.

It isn't convincing enough yet to suggest a trend change out there, but I am going to be watching this one this week to see if the market does signal anything more. The theme at the moment is the big buying hasn't been enough to shift the sellers in any material way. The buying hasn't persisted long enough. The buying normally just fades away, and any bounce to the next price point higher, just gets swarmed by another big layer of sellers.

IF bigger buying does persist here, and this starts to move higher, or form a more bullish trend, perhaps there will be cause for some optimism.

Is that possible? We are almost conditioned now to sell any bounce or just expect continued downside. I wonder if there could be a small change in tone soon.

Let's see.

All imo
DYOR

[riverman77] 02/11/2023 19:47

Only a small acquisition but looks very cheap - about 1% of AUM (2-3% would be more common in healthier markets), or 2.5x earnings (albeit before partners remuneration). Looks like a good bolt on.

[rogen83] 02/11/2023 16:08

anyway, you pays your money and you take your choice. I've added another 100k at 51.34p just now