Premier Direct Share Discussion Threads

[fellowes] 24/9/2004 08:40

nurdin

Good point, However the HI bias will be countered by the addition of extra
distributors. This will power earnings ahead, combined with the continuing improvement in margins.

In Feburary 2004 alone, PDR added a net 50 New distributers.

The large director purchase over the Summer is a major pointer to buoyant current trading, I expect EPS of 90-100 pence a share with a very confident
outlook statement.

PDR remains very undervalued, But not for much longer. I expect a share price
of at Least 7.50 pence a share by results on the 19th October and this will most likely prove very conservative

[nurdin] 23/9/2004 10:31

Do remember theres H1 bias in earnings due to the summer holiday period in H2.Would be wonderful if they did 50p in H2 but I somehow doubt it.However even on the current Bridgwell forecasts, which the brokers say stand every chance of being beaten,, the shares are trading on a PE of around 9 which is low for a company showing consistent growth.Then again the Directors bought heavily at around current levels so they must know something we dont...

Looking to add as well ahead of the results

[gd150772] 23/9/2004 10:22

Nurdin

I have QL and they go along with bridgewell, however they wouldn't be surprised to see 100p eps.

[davewheelershed] 22/9/2004 21:08

Good Ferreting DorQ!

I am seriously struggling to find a downside here. Anyone have any nagging doubts or worries? Its important to look for the bear signs while buying IMO...

Cheers

DW

[doubleorquits] 22/9/2004 21:00

Dave,

Me too, so that accounts for two of the buyers. Joined the party today hoping for some upside over the next few months. Results should be good - don't believe what you read in the papers but at the end of July there was this:

an article in the Independent reports: the shares rose 35p to 712.5p on whispers that trading is as much as 20 per cent ahead of internal budget.

That was then repeated last week:

an article in the Independent reports: the shares rose 6.5p to 705p as a number of brokers were heard talking of strong trading at the group.

Now if QL are looking for an EPS of 100p+ that will do me - a PE of only 7 with the chance of it looking even cheaper a year on.

Shares Mag at the beginning of the year:

Are you mid-40s and tired by a stressful job? Then you might consider becoming a distributor for Premier Direct. Distributors simply deliver samples (novelty toys and children's books) to workplaces and return a week later with the orders. The seller collects a 10% commission and employers often take an override as well. Distributors typically clock up sales of £75,000 per year. Even after salaries, Premier still makes a gross margin of 27% to 30%. This is a fixed-cost business. As the network of distributors increases, the benefit goes straight to the bottom line.
The company started the current financial year with over 500 agents, up from 160 a year earlier. Around 200 of the increase came from buying the Wonderful Book Company from Kleeneze. Chief executive Barry Moat reckons he can reach 1,000 distributors within two years. He sees capacity across the UK for 1,200 to 1,300. Then Premier will think about Europe.
This may sound too easy. Moat had to fire his previous team of sales executives because they were happy to chug along instead of going for growth. Strong management is vital, but so is a good source of supply. Luckily, Premier has an exclusive deal with US supplies giant DS-Maxwhich develops products and sources them in Asia in huge volume. Moat cites the example of Billy the Singing Carp. This sold for £30 in the shops but Premier sourced it for £2.50 and sold it for £10. The exclusive with DS-Max also covers Europe.
Premier is brilliantly cash generative because it collects cash from its customers even before it delivers. Suppliers are paid later. The concern must be that growth on the planned scale will cause logistical headaches. The company reckons its warehouse can already handle 1,000 distributors. This simple business model is bound to spawn many imitators, but the DS-Max gives Premier an edge.
House broker Bridgewell forecasts 72p EPS in the current year and 84p in 2005. These figures look sensibly cautious. There are always risks and the shares have also already rocketed, but they still look terrific value.
VITAL STATS:
Business: selling novelty gifts and toys at the workplace via a network of individual distributors.
Market value: £24 million
Historic PE: 33
Prospective PE to Jul '04: 8.3
Prospective PE to Jul '05: 7.1
Dividend yield: nil
Prospective dividend yield: 0.8%

[davewheelershed] 22/9/2004 18:14

Hi Nurdin,

I dont have the figures to hand, will have a look tomorrow. As I recall they were saying they would not be suprised to see >100p EPS.

At interims stage excluding goodwill and that 'A' word I can never say EPS was 50p. Personally I am looking at a conservative 95p or so. 3 figures would be nice though, I wouldn't be too suprised.

Yourself? Any expectations?

Cheers

Dave

[nurdin] 22/9/2004 17:49

What are your expectations for eps Dave? Do QL have any numbers?

[davewheelershed] 22/9/2004 17:46

Good evening all.

Today I am a proud PDR holder. If EPS is as high as I have read it could be (Quantum Leap anyone?) then this should rocket on results. As GD150772 mentioned, the shocking illiquidity would mean volatility would be huge and any buying would see some big rises. The same in reverse is true but that would suprise me somewhat.

Good luck all...

Dave

[madigan] 20/9/2004 11:23

Many thanks GD. 4 weeks and counting!

[gd150772] 20/9/2004 10:14

Edit the above

Have just spoken to the company this morning and they are expecting to release results on Tuesday 19th October.

[gd150772] 18/9/2004 12:12

No RNS yet Madigan, however they should be out @ 22/10

GD

[madigan] 17/9/2004 10:10

Anyone know when the results are out?

[fellowes] 15/9/2004 12:59

Anyone know if the very large sell showing today of 15,000 shares at 678, was a delayed trade and responsible for the sharp fall in the price yesterday?.


Many thanks in advance.

[rb5] 09/9/2004 17:03

Nice double bottom on the chart and turning up from being very oversold albeit on very low volume.

£10 by year end.

[madigan] 09/9/2004 16:41

That's more like it!

Big fan of this stock and management of Eric and Barry. Look back for earlier comments on this tread.

Results within the next 7 weeks - anyone got a firm date?

I would imagine that business is still good for PDR, and the cash is pouring in. I wonder what they have planned with it all, hopefully a nice big divi is on the way.

Hope all is well Angel.

Regards

[gd150772] 09/9/2004 10:30

You can't keep a good stock down......Not long before the punters wake up to this little beauty.

With a free float of just 4 million and over 50% of these held by institutions and directors, any decent amount of buying will really get this motoring..8)...

[nurdin] 09/9/2004 10:08

I say! :o)

[nurdin] 02/9/2004 11:59

I am at my stop loss limit now but think I will add instead.Theres absolutely no reason for th fall imo...and I do think they will make 90-100p for the full year!

[gd150772] 01/9/2004 12:05

Well i'm in for a fivers worth....I've been waiting for the mm's to start playing their usual games.

Seriously, I can't see them going much lower when the director picked up 5000 at 640p.

[cockneyrebel] 01/9/2004 11:53

Yeah, pretty illiquid - I wan't expecting this re-trace tho - I can live with a 10% fall but it's the pace I can't stand!

CR

[nurdin] 01/9/2004 11:44

oh dear..looking decidely weak.My top up coming up soon...

[stallone10] 27/8/2004 19:44

i guess a million was taken against profits in the last half, this was a one of cost in relation to aquisition.
without it earnings per share would have been 70p.
Theerefore earnings per share i thonk will be 80-90p.

We must take into allowance that a lot of these profits were driven from the stock from the dmg deal but next year the increased sellers should mean that the earnins per share should be the same.
The company is swimming in cash and could buy growth by aquisition quite easily.
I say this company is trading at 7 p/e going forward and could easily double.

[nothingtolose] 25/8/2004 13:38

Looks like someone has picked up 15k shares at a good price this morning - Wasn't you again GS?

[nurdin] 25/8/2004 08:46

cheers GS...not good for ones blood pressure! :o)