Premier African Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[doctor 69] 12/1/2018 10:50

Much stronger

[mike_f] 12/1/2018 10:48

A real possibility ihnc

[ihavenoclue] 12/1/2018 10:40

Could the large seller since November have finally finished ? I think the Zulu news help the share price hold it's own against the selling but the news on the 2nd Jan just removed that upward support.

Needs to gain 50% just to get back to that level.

[mike_f] 12/1/2018 10:37

Looking good. Recovery underway

[fillipe] 12/1/2018 10:36

Some chunky bites being taken.

f

[fillipe] 12/1/2018 10:35

Bid/Ask is rising nicely.

f

[jungmana] 12/1/2018 10:33

Thanks for your advice but No! Will see what George comes up with.

[dmitribollokov] 12/1/2018 10:25

Use any rise as an opp to sell

[doctor 69] 12/1/2018 10:08

Struggled to buy some , had to buy two blocks separately

[cambradjones] 12/1/2018 10:02

About time !

[mike_f] 12/1/2018 09:54

Full ask paid! Tide turning?

[jungmana] 12/1/2018 09:36

Good post there Tedoby. Zulu is the reason am in here despite my reservations about George.One day zulu will make someone very rich and i hope those of us sitting on big losses have a share in that money.

[mike_f] 12/1/2018 08:05

Nice post tedoby, shows the vast potential with Zulu. We now have to make it happen! Looking forward to seeing details on Zulu newco.

[tedoby2] 12/1/2018 07:19

FWIW here's one perspective on Zulu that might have some points of interest. Setting aside the Tantalum which in itself is not insignificant I can envisage the new Zuluco having a ROM of around 1.5m to 2.0m tonnes p.a when at "steady state" early in the production period and initially adopting the Lithium Concentrate route to market. Interestingly Pilbara Minerals who Zulu is sometimes benchmarked against had a ROM target of 2.0m tonnes p.a. in their mining pan initially have subsequently increased their target and it now stands at 4.0m tonnes.

At that level of production Zuluco would produce around 15k to 20k tonnes of Li2O which would convert into roughly 175k to 235k tonnes of Spodumene Concentrate and 75k to 100k tonnes of Petalite Concentrate at the anticipated 70/30 split and just over a 1% grade.

Using the "earnigs metric" the lower figures would give the company a revenue of around $220m p.a at current off-take rates ($900/1000/t for > 6% Spodumene). With AISC's at say $90m p.a that would give us the key
"Earnings" figure to use in the metric of $130m. A sensible P/E ratio could be said to be not less than 5 which would produce a Market Cap of $650m - another key figure.

Staying with the concentrate option but using the higher figures would give Zuluco a Market Cap of around $1.0bn.

Once the Carbonate plant in Bulawayo has been completed and becomes operational Zuluco's fundamentals change dramatically. Using a factor of 2.473 15k tonnes of Li2O converts to approximately 37k tonnes of LCE and 20k tonnes of converts to just under 50k tonnes.

Assuming a revenue of $13,000/tonne after off-takers commissions that would give the new company a revenue of $481m and $650m at the two production run rates under consideration. Also assuming AISC's at say $150m p.a that would give us the key "Earnings" figures of $331m and $500m p.a. and produce a Market Cap of $1.65bn and $2.5bn respectively.

There's no way of knowing what proportion on the new Zuluco Prem investors will be awarded or what the Market Cap will be at launch. I believe anything between $60m and $100m launch price would be about right with say 60% assigned to Prem shareholders, 30% to a partner or partners and the rest to make a market etc.

If any of the above figures are anywhere near right Prem investors are going to be very handsomely rewarded. Perhaps by a factor of 3x their current investment on launch and as much as 30x (30 bagger) or more within 3 years or so if all goes well. No doubt there'll be a cut-off date very soon when the shares in Prem's shareholders hands will be "frozen" whilst counted in order to qualify. So "you have to be in it to win it!"

You may chose to downgrade or adjust the figures. They're only meant to be approximate and I accept they're just based upon my opinion. But given at the higher output we could still be looking at a LOM of over 50 years some might argue a few of them could even be conservative.

Hopefully some of my comments gives food for thought.

[vitec] 12/1/2018 00:01

Wally, I agree with most of what you have expressed.

Companies change their name to put the past behind them. Shareholders can be fickle. Some have long memories and are not forgiving but the majority when they are making money forget the past quickly. A rising share price will probably have some here stating that PREM is the best thing since sliced bread and that George is a genius.

I do not believe that a separate listing for Zulu is a ruse. Separating it from the rest of PREM will attract new investors, funds to develop it and the ability to appoint a separate CEO and a team of individuals. I have no crystal ball but it would make sense if George saw Zulu through its listing and got RHA sorted and then announced that he was going to be Chairman and allowed others to run PREM on a day to day basis. If as many think it is George that is the problem then this alone would propel the share price

Is it right that PREM is valued at about 13 million pounds? I think not and that is why I have stayed put. However, no company is immuned to going lower. Zulu is a monster and the value of Zulu lest the funds to develop it cannot be achieved whilst it stays within PREM. That is not what I and many others signed up for but that seems to be the conclusion that George and the PREM BOD have reached. I may not like it but I want to see value from investing in PREM. I have always stated I am here for Zulu and if a separate listing achieves my goal, then so be it.

[wallyjumblat] 11/1/2018 22:17

I think GR should take a back seat now purely to take out the sentiment and lack of confidence. However you must have a balanced view because he has discovered these assets and even though RHA hasn't cut the mustard yet this could be turned around very quickly and with the possibility of 100% ownership and JV lined up then that alone would add huge value.
Zulu is massive and continues to get bigger, my view is the separate listing could be a ploy by GR to speed up and attract JV partners however the JV partner would have to operate the mine because there is no confidence in the Prem BOD mainly due to the RHA fiasco.
The share price reflects failure in all assets and that's not right so I am expecting a market correction shortly.
AIMHO and GL guys.

[ihavenoclue] 11/1/2018 22:13

Jungmana
11 Jan '18 - 16:06 - 7971 of 7972
0 2 0
Fyi, i communicate with George and have recently asked for his resignation after zulu is listed seperately

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You certainly don't pull any punches but a fair comment after the last year and HUGE dilution

[ihavenoclue] 11/1/2018 22:09

I agree 100% with 1hopper (never thought I would say that ;) ) .. not wanting to point fingers but if you have something in a company that causes the market not to value assets fully then replicating it under another company does nothing to remove the reason that value was seen in the first place.

[jungmana] 11/1/2018 16:06

Fyi, i communicate with George and have recently asked for his resignation after zulu is listed seperately

[jungmana] 11/1/2018 16:02

Vitec, there are a couple of companies on aim with multiple projects and are doing ok. A good example is THR mining. The problem here is many investors dont trust George anymore. Has any of his big plans ever come to fruition over last few years here? None. What happened to PEA and then we will get a good deal? What happened to TCT? I could go on and on.I remain invested but wish i had sold out in late November.

[mike_f] 11/1/2018 15:54

Maybe the BoD will change? If they have a JV partner lined up (which speculation suggests they do) who will be taking a slice of the pie, they are likely to have 1 or 2 people that are going to be senior figures in the new company and ultimately have a lot say as to what goes on.

[1hopper] 11/1/2018 15:32

If the market haven't factored ZULU into the S/P of Prem, what makes you think they will suddenly think it's got massive potential on its own?Surely the problem with PREM's S/P at the moment is the management and their current business model.How will spinning off into a second company that will need to issue an offering to raise funds and keeping the same BOD change investors minds?

[jungmana] 11/1/2018 14:32

Costs max £600k. But if you ask me i personally dont believe spinning off zulu as a stand alone company is the only way to get best value. This is my opinion.