Port Erin Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 06/2/2015 16:36

Hi TrentB,

Yes, I am surprised how it worked out; the rise in MBIF and the weakness in SUMM at the valuation point brought that about. Of course, the tenderers will not have enjoyed the same benefits from the surge in SUMM; the NASDAQ ADS confirmation came on the trading day after the tender valuation - coincidence, or not, I wonder.......

I will be reinvesting in PEBI when the discount increases. Next task is to work out the NAV following the sale of the Fund shares and the rise in SUMM; my brain hurts!!

[trentendboy] 06/2/2015 14:34

There is that. Hmmm. They can then reinvest he cash and get more shares

Can it be that sime?

[rivaldo] 06/2/2015 12:41

Nice result for the tenderers though - 15.87p per share:

[trentendboy] 06/2/2015 12:28

Did not sell anything - missed the deadline. Still happy to hold which around 50% of shareholders appear to agree with.

[rivaldo] 23/1/2015 07:26

RNS out - Colin Lee is continuing to buy and now has above 7% with 2.37m shares:



And the Magna Fund is at around new highs now:

[tightfist] 15/1/2015 16:27

Hi TrentEnd,

Having thought a little more, it's tempting to take the cash and then reinvest at an anticipated lower price (no guarantees!). Of course, in the meantime fireworks may go off at SUMM or PLE in which case one would need to buy back in smartish.

I am not a close follower of PLE so cannot try to read that one. At SUMM the announcement of a NASDAQ listing and placing could put the cat amongst the pidgeons!! Not sure of the potential timing of that likely move during 2015.

As you say, there is the hassle factor of multiple transactions to take into account....

[trentendboy] 15/1/2015 13:45

Tightfist - your post hits the nail on the head and is a reason why one should take up the tender offier. The discount to NAV has only closed because of the offer.

Even so, I think I will keep all my shares (and it is less hassle)

[rivaldo] 15/1/2015 12:28

There's your answer tightfist - Colin Lee's been buying again, another 400,000 shares and he's now up to 2.22m shares:

[tightfist] 14/1/2015 16:53

Rivaldo,

I think the timing is mandated by the expiry of the lock-in period, initiated in November 2013; I don’t think we can read anything into it of investing significance.

The lack of a partial tendering capability is a little disappointing – and seemingly unnecessary. I suspect this offer will be a damp squibb – apart from selling by those who have been buying over the past months to arbitrage the discount closure. eg It will be interesting to see what Colin Lee does.

Afterwards, I can see no reason why the discount will not open-up again; indeed, will the discount widen because the tender offer is no longer in the offing? And also because arbitrageurs (if they exist) may want to dispose of the other 43% of their shares. From memory, the discount seemed to settle at ~25% during 2013….

[langbarb] 14/1/2015 09:48

same here and the discound is virtually gone..

[maurillac] 14/1/2015 09:37

i have had the same thoughts as you rivaldo - tempted to keep my pebi shares ..
m

[rivaldo] 14/1/2015 08:31

Tender offer RNS just out:



Will the offer in itself cause the discount to the 14.18p per share NAV to close?

Must admit I too am tempted to keep my shares.

What intrigues me is the timing - why do this now, just before the start of this pivotal period for PLE or SUMM?

If either of PLE or SUMM succeed, the upside here will be massive.

It seems to me that Mellon harbours great hopes for PLE/SUMM and wants to maximise value for PEBI before PLE/SUMM start announcing news flow.

[tightfist] 05/1/2015 12:34

TrentBoy,Once some holders have taken their cash, will PEBI just slump back and the discount to NAV widen again? Response to PLE and SUMM news generally seems pretty muted, which suggests the market doesn't really monitor/understand PEBI?Taking some cash and re-acquiring on quiet days may work; do we expect any positive news bombshells over the next few months?

[trentendboy] 03/1/2015 10:25

I plan to keep all shares and not take the offer?

This crazy?

[tightfist] 02/1/2015 12:52

Hi Rivaldo,

Agreed. H2 will certainly be pivotal for SUMM trials(it may become pivotal in H1 for corporate developments - Jim explicitly mentioned NASDAQ listing possibility). I am not following PLE closely at present, after the recent run looks like it may fall back to 6p now? The next approval is due in Q4 2015?

I will be tempted to take some cash, but on the other hand I am already heavily into SUMM, so cashing some of that holding as the year progresses and using PEBI to diversify into PLE and MBIF is probably a more balanced approach.

We must remember that the original objective was to reduce/eliminate the discount to NAV.... I really hope they make this an annual offer to encash MBIF. Otherwise I fear that the discount will just open-up again after the offer closes?

[rivaldo] 02/1/2015 10:07

Happy New Year tightfist (and all here).

It does seem that this is a pivotal year for PLE and SUMM - it should only take one of them to succeed to bring about a big uplift here.

PEBI had over £0.5m of cash at the last results date. I suppose there's a possibility that if the percentage of shareholders voting to be cashed out is small, they could pay these off using the existing cash and not have to sell any MBIF or anything else!

As you say, we'll see the details soon. At present I'm a little torn between the two options as presented, but would probably take the cash since Magna has done so well, giving me a continuing stake in PEBI for free (or not very much).

[tightfist] 01/1/2015 22:03

Hi Rivaldo,

Hopefully the 14.7p will see an uplift during this year as SUMM and PLE (and MBIF) work their way forward. Interesting to see that Mellon explicitly mentions SUMM going onto NASDAQ which SUMM management seemed to avoid saying.

The return of cash is not panning-out quite the way I was hoping for; it did seem too good to be true........

For me the wording is still a bit obscure, and need to see the detail, but it looks as though those who want to take cash out (I suppose we will be individually given the option to take out up to ~60% of the NAV, which was represented by the MBIF holding on 30.06.2014) which will be enabled by PEBI selling down the MBIF holding. Depending on the aggregate shareholder cashing-in decisions will determine the remaining exposure the MBIF (reducing), versus SUMM, versus PLE, etc. increasing.

Is that your interpretation?

[trentendboy] 30/12/2014 09:08

Answer to my previous question was yes I/we should have bought more.

Did I? Sadly no.

[rivaldo] 30/12/2014 08:29

Results to 30/6/14 finally out now - with an NAV of 14.7p per share:



Circular coming early next month to choose whether to distribute Magna via cash - or not.

I note also that Colin Lee has been increasing his stake in PEBI again - he evidently likes the new strategy:

[trentendboy] 22/12/2014 13:00

Nice post. To buy more now?

[rivaldo] 22/12/2014 10:28

Nice rise today, presumably in anticipation of the coming cash distribution.

Good summary by a poster called casper72 elsewhere dated 28th November after the distribution RNS was issued:

"I read the announcement today as essentially saying:

"we will buy back shares from existing shareholders and cancel them, using money from the Magna Fund".

no details on price, but its fairly easy to work out the overall picture.

The Magna fund value is currently about 9.6p/PEBI share, so the distribution will, after costs, deliver equivalent value to each shareholder. Lets assume that they decide to buy back 1 share for every 2 shares owned.
- you get back 9.6p/share (capital gains as its a share redemption, rather than dividend, but think of it as a dividend)
- total value of PEBI drops by 9.6p/share, leaving a balance sheet value of 5.8p remaining, half of this being holdings in listed shares, half unlisted
- the shares in issue halve from today, so the net asset value per share doubles back up to 11.6p/share

That means that the market is effectively discounting the remaining PEBI investments by 80% (difference between current offer of 10.5p share and the 9.6p distribution = 0.9p, vs. balance sheet value of 5.8p/share prior to share redemption).

This seems like a material discount to me. The only complication will be the fact that PEBI will be so small at the end of this process that I don't think that it will be economically viable in the long run (would only have a market cap of £1.8m).

Welcome views on the maths and other risks - I flagged that this was a good opportunity a while back - seems to be even more so now. "

[rivaldo] 10/12/2014 15:56

Magna Fund continues to rise - up to 16.06 and more new highs:

[rivaldo] 28/11/2014 14:55

Hmmm...RNS out, and cash coming back to shareholders :o))

Bit of a muck-up by the advisers methinks on what was possible/feasible at a small enough cost. A better - or at least cleaner - result anyway now perhaps.

I note that the Magna Fund is now at new highs:

[rivaldo] 30/10/2014 14:40

For the record, the 30/9 NAV update showed NAV at 14.42p per share. The Magna Fund has slipped a touch since then, as have the PLE and SUMM share prices, so I imagine the NAV is nearer 14p now.

Here's the latest investments:

Investments as at 30 September Value % of Total Portfolio
2014

Magna Biopharma Income Fund GBP2,613,899 59.29%
Plethora Solutions Holdings GBP600,625 13.62%
Summit Corporation GBP586,499 13.30%
Other quoted holdings GBP209,110 4.74%
Other unquoted holdings GBP398,500 9.04%

Total GBP4,408,633 100.00%