Port Erin Share Discussion Threads

[maurillac] 17/1/2014 14:17

nav 15.91p according to todays rns.
magna pharma 2746728 55%
plethora 968752 19.4%
summit 637500 12.8%
gla
m

[rivaldo] 17/1/2014 12:31

ARWR's share price has galloped ahead and is now $12.66, compared to the $4.80 in the thread header post:



This is now worth around £1.3m assuming PEBI haven't sold any, and means that along with PLE and SUMM the company now has three major shareholdings worth (without using a calculator!) around £3m between them without taking any of the other holdings into account.

I note that SGYP is also up to $5.74, against $4.81 in the header, and NKTR is nicely up too.

[trentendboy] 16/1/2014 20:29

Nice upward move from summit news I guess. Might be something else.

Any ideas?

[hindsight] 11/12/2013 12:15

Has anyone got a ballpark NAV for PEBI at present ?
Thank you in advance

[langbarb] 26/11/2013 10:27

Skyship, I could not find PEBI's holdings so I used the info kindly provided in the header (though from reading the thread it is clear that PEBI's holdings have changed since). I calculated the NAV of the top seven holdings reported above using today's share prices and the shares held as per the header. I get approximately £3.25mm (just recalculated taking FX into account...), almost identical to 30-Sep, when the NAV per share was 17.13p (SUMM is down 36% compensated by PLE up 13% and ARWR up 30%, TROV down 24% but it's relatively small vs the other 3). It is a rough and ready approach, but the best I could come up with... If anyone has more precise figures of PEBI's holdings I will be happy to plug them in my spreadsheet.

[skyship] 26/11/2013 09:53

Looks as though SUMM may have started to turn better after today's news.

Anyone got a take on PEBI's current NAV. Sorry, haven't put this on a spreadsheet yet; but will do so.

[tightfist] 14/11/2013 16:20

Hi Rivaldo,

I just track the top 9 holdings plus APHB when mentioning NAV movements - they constitute 70% of the overall NAV. Admittedly a broad-brush approach.

We just await developments with SUMM, PLE and ARWR, in particular. If they go well over the next 12 months we are quids-in; if one of them flops, hopefully eliminating the discount (~24% today) will cover PEBI losses when we get the chance to take our cash in 12 months time.

Is that your understanding too?

[rivaldo] 07/11/2013 09:35

Hi tightfist. Do you keep track of all the holdings in the thread header post on your spreadsheet? Quite a task (unless automated I suppose)!

Let's hope PEBI did buy more PLE as you say. It's PLE, SUMM and ARWR which will drive PEBI's share price unless something else comes up on the rails (I'm very, very optimistic about APHB).

[tightfist] 07/11/2013 07:32

Rivaldo,

PEBI was on ~29% discount on Tuesday. I bought some more yesterday.

I deduced that PEBI must have bought 2m SUMM in the August placing (10% of the size of Jim's transaction). Hopefully PEBI similaly bought 2m PLE last week!

PEBI seem to hold ~2% of both SUMM & PLE so these transactions are not immediately visible.

[rivaldo] 06/11/2013 15:11

Starting to respond now.

[rivaldo] 06/11/2013 08:18

PLE is now above 18p, yet PEBI has slipped a long way from the highs. Buying opportunity?

[tightfist] 28/10/2013 16:49

Wee Geordie, confirming my 10k Buy mid-morning was at 12.50p. I am wary about trying to deal in larger sizes.

[weegeordie] 28/10/2013 11:02

I have been looking at the actual trades v online quotes today and it seems that those around 12.5 are buys. It looks as though the MMs are not wanting people to buy.

[tightfist] 28/10/2013 09:12

According to my calcs, 34% of PEBI NAV is tied-up in SUMM & PLE, unless PEBI took place in the recent PLE 9p placing; there was plenty of cash available and I believe Jim Mellon took £1.8m of stock including his funds.

I noted that it appears PEBI took 2m SUMM shares in the August 5p placing.

Yes, PEBI has multi-bagger potential and it we can currently buy that potential at a useful discount, unlike the individual stock placing shares which instantly shoot-off to a substantial premium!

I have not been following PLE but the FBB is certainly getting very upbeat, or carried away!

[rivaldo] 28/10/2013 08:41

Hi tightfist. PEBI is pretty obviously risky given the nature of its investee companies!

Given that a large percentage of the 17p or so NAV is tied up in PLE and SUMM, any disappointments for either or both of those two would weigh heavily.

On the other hand, if either is successful then PEBI will presumably be a multibagger given a mere £3.8m m/cap.

PLE's timeframe for success is now extremely short-term and may well arrive in the next 12 months, so not too long to wait....

[tightfist] 27/10/2013 19:10

Rivaldo, have I missed something??!

According to my spreadsheet the PEBI NAV on Friday's close was about 16.46p, neglecting the Bid/Mid spread. This suggests PEBI is trading at 23% discount to NAV; yet paradoxically on Friday they announced that (subject to it going through on 11th November) there is going to be an undiscounted cash offer in 12 months time.

This portfolio of speculative Biotech companies could do all sorts of exciting things in the next 12 months, coupled with a cash offer at the end.

Have I missed something - or is the portfolio really that risky? SUMM and PLE seem to be gathering a following (I have a significant part of my portfolio in SUMM at present).

[ian001] 24/10/2013 11:01

Thanks Rivaldo - I think you're right about the selling, I certainly misread it.

I thought the extra shares issued to Shellbay had clobbered the NAV!
On that basis, I've added a few...

[rivaldo] 24/10/2013 10:39

Ian, it's because that was the NAV at 30th June for the Annual Report.

The latest NAV as at 30th September is 17.13p and was announced here on 18th October:



The NAV has increased vastly since 30th June due to the rises in a number of PEBI's portfolio company share prices.

I'm tempted to think that some of this morning's selling is because people have looked at the 30th June NAV and thought that this is the latest NAV calculation. Ian, your post tends to bear this out!

[ian001] 24/10/2013 10:21

Hi Rivaldo
Any idea why they're reporting a NAV of 10.63p when it was 17.13p and it's at a "substantial discount"?

[rivaldo] 24/10/2013 07:31

Good news just announced - the one year timeframe with subsequent likely distribution of cash/assets should serve to reduce the current discount to NAV.

I suspect also that fees/costs would reduce with a spread across wider assets:



Thoughts welcomed from other holders.

[rivaldo] 18/10/2013 11:39

A second RNS today - Colin Lee has increased his holding again. He had 2.37m shares previously and has bought another 339,000, so is at 2.71m now, or over 8%:



I think he likes this company :o))

[rivaldo] 18/10/2013 08:40

New NAV out this morning as at 30th September - 17.13p per share, a 70% increase over the quarter!

I note that APHB is now the fifth largest investment at £207k.

And ARWR has increased by a third since 30th September, i.e around £200,000, more than making up for small declines in PLE and SUMM since then.

[adred] 17/10/2013 17:08

Portage Biotech Inc

Does anyone know if PEBI have any shares in Portage Biotech Inc?

Reason for asking ;



The following are the backgrounds of the new management and Board members:


Declan Doogan M.D. is the co-founder and Chairman of PPL and is the CEO of Portage Biotech Inc. He was the previous CEO and Head of R&D at Amarin Inc. (AMRN:NASDAQ) and the former Head of Worldwide Drug Development at Pfizer Inc. He has held Visiting Professorships at Harvard School of Public Health, Glasgow University Medical School and Kitasato University (Tokyo) and sits on the boards of Pulmonary Vascular Research Institute UK, Sosei (Japan Biotech), Trojantec (UK, oncology) and Spinifex (Melbourne). He continues to provide medical advice to Amarin Inc.

Gregory Bailey M.D. is a co-founder and Chief Business Officer of PPL. Co-founder of Ascent Healthcare Solutions, the #1 re-processor of used surgical equipment; VirnetX Inc. (VHC: AMEX), internet security; and Duramedic Inc., a medical products company. He is a former financier of Medivation Inc. (MDVN: NASDAQ) and was a director from 2005 to 2012.

Jim Mellon is a co-founder of PPL. A principal of Charlemagne Capital, a listed fund management company; Regent Pacific, an Asian mining group; and the controlling shareholder of Manx Financial, an Isle of Man based-bank; Speymill Group, a property business; and Webis Holdings. Co-founder of Uramin and Red Dragon Resources, both mining groups. Burnbrae, his private company, is a substantial landlord in Germany and in the Isle of Man, and owns a hotel chain. Mr. Mellon is on twitter @: .

Bruce H. Littman, M.D. , is the CEO of PPL. He has over 30 years of research and drug development experience. He was Vice President and Global Head of Translational Medicine at Pfizer and also has a strong academic background in immunology, rheumatology and inflammation. His skill set is particularly suited to developing de-risking strategies and using an understanding of how drugs behave in the body to evaluate early drug candidates. He has an excellent track record in early clinical development. After retiring from Pfizer at the end of 2007 he became an independent consultant. Prior to that, he served for 13 years on the faculty of Virginia Commonwealth University's Medical College of Virginia. He is an author and co-editor of "Translational Medicine and Drug Discovery" published in 2011 by Cambridge University Press.

Frank W. Marcoux , Ph.D . is the CSO of PPL. He has over 25 years of pharmaceutical company and academic research experience. He was the VP of Quantitative and Innovative Medicine in WW Development at Pfizer and former VP WW Discovery Biology Discipline Head until 2008 when he became an independent consultant. Previously he worked for Parke-Davis Pharmaceutical Research, for seventeen years. Dr. Marcoux's consulting focus is on high confidence translation of drug discovery programs to early clinical proof of concept and is aimed at biotech, pharma and academic medical centres. Dr. Marcoux holds a Ph.D. in Physiology and Biophysics and has held research positions prior to industry at Harvard Medical School/Massachusetts General Hospital, University of Alabama, Birmingham, Medical Center, and at the University of Vermont, College of Medicine.

[adred] 17/10/2013 16:58

Does anyone know what happens to the warrants issued at the IPO?

[rivaldo] 04/10/2013 14:30

RNS out - Colin Lee has bought around another 340,000 shares since his last holding declaration, and now has 2.37m, or 7% of PEBI:



Quite a commitment. I wonder who he is (unlikely to be the former rather galumphing Chelsea centre-forward...).