Plutus Powergen Share Discussion Threads

[nw99] 15/8/2018 11:08

Think news plus chart bottom , hence buyers today

[bmcb5] 15/8/2018 11:07

Re the contacts and other items i posted, I'm not questioning whether PL/PS are industry men.

But I would certainly challenge your assertion of not needing backroom staff.

Unless you have a dedicated team focusing on turning opportunities into working assets, you cannot control the rate of buildout. I think we are seeing signs of this in PPG. Competitors have dedicated teams, and are delivering.

Unless you have systems which allow you to trade your asset (which requires agreements, collateral etc) and all the other activities (which get pretty complex, pretty quickly) you effectively have to contract a big player to do it all for you. You lose the ability to make your own decisions, and you end up taking what you can get, and you pay a premium for the service. Competitors either have systems already, or are actively developing them.

Just my opinions, and a people/system-light strategy can work. I just think it backs up my view that they are not industry leaders, and are destined for backwater operation, rather than the riches some of you expect / hope for.

[1savvyinvestor] 15/8/2018 11:01

No need. You are intelligent and balanced

[1savvyinvestor] 15/8/2018 10:44

bmcb5. Why did you change your user name? I'm pretty sure I know who you are. You used to make good balanced points so if it is you I would welcome your balanced views. But why change your name? That always smells a bit fishy!! The guy I was speaking to yesterday knows someone with two identical sites to the 20mw Rockpool sites which are functioning well and have clear profitable visibility going forward to attract buyer interest. They reckon that an income stream of around 4.5 - 5% is already attracting buyers. No reason why this should not apply to the excellent sites Rockpool/Plutus have already built and are up and running. As for your assertion about people with contacts; well I'm very comfortable with Paul Lazaravic and Phil Stephens with multiple years in the industry. Most of these sites once up and running don't need teams of backroom staff.

[pbanus] 15/8/2018 10:42

the year end for the annual accounts was 30th April. The interims period end would be 31stOct, surely they wont be waiting that long? The deadline is 6 months for full year reports and 3 months for interims. The last interims were issued right on the last day possible!

[lilah1] 15/8/2018 10:42

Its funny how people jump on such week optimism, I would be very careful about jumping in just yet, this silence from PPG isn't for no reason. There might be good news on its way but I would suspect that that could still be some way off & not to the level we all hoped for.

[bmcb5] 15/8/2018 10:33

Another good point pb. If I had £125m to invest, would I hand it over to PPG, or would I give it to one of their many competitors who have scale, infrastructure, systems, people, contracts, contacts, etc.

Well, I think you can guess the answer

[pbanus] 15/8/2018 10:29

@A1m1nvestor - Wednesday morning fantasy comments from you, they can't even raise the funding to kickstart their "pivotal" year vis-a-vis gas! Jeeez. They tried to use a £50M bond raise to get their equity stake and had to pull it due to a lack on interest. Potential investors will be saying to them, "so what stake are you going to put in?" - "err well, we did try to raise funds via a bond, but it didn't work, so we're hoping you'll give us all the £125M for our plans to build 10 gas sites???, you're correct in assuming that if it all went wrong you'd lose 100% of your stake, and we'd, errr, lose nothing...so what do you say, can we have the money??"

[bmcb5] 15/8/2018 10:27

Good point on publishing results pb. I've not checked as I've been out of office. What date are they due?

Good companies do not leave results until the last day, in my experience

[bmcb5] 15/8/2018 10:22

Well I'm going to say it. I think they've missed the boat.

Straight off the top of my head, I can think of at least 6 companies (with a bit of thought, maybe treble that number) that are soooooo far ahead of PPG in terms of development, finance, portfolio already in operation and with CM contracts. They will never be a serious player in this market imo.

I can't see PPG ever getting close to them. They are an also-ran that, at best, will get bought out cheap by one of their competitors. I still fail to see the attraction of diesel assets with a £100/MW marginal cost.

Maybe i could make an argument for a few diesels, as part of a large portfolio, in order to give some mitigation to the risk of gas shortages. That would be pandering to risk management committees, rather than solid commercial sense though, imo.

[rhug1966] 15/8/2018 10:21

and the Pump has started....

[a1m1investor] 15/8/2018 10:07

That's good to hear that there's some potential positive news in the pipeline. I do think at this level this represents great risk reward, at sub £7m mcap there really is nothing positive priced in here. I understand that a huge amount value will come from the potential of the Company to develop into the gas arena, if the company can demonstrate that they have a plan and funding to be genuine players in this area then the share price will be many multiples imo. In the near term however, if the Co can also show any decent increase in revenue over the last year then this could see the share price double or so from this level. I would imagine the value of PPG assets on site probably cover the mcap at the moment, so if the Co can show a couple £mil in revenue then I would value the Co into double figures at that point, especially as most of the revenue is going to be ongoing and recurring. A final aspect worth considering is that this type of ongoing and recurring revenue is of interest to investment/pension funds etc as it allows them to project future revenues over specific time periods while holding out for the bigger pay day into the gas arena so there could be interest in a take over to take this private. I wouldn't imagine that any t/o price would be crazy but I would think around 3-4p could be achievable depending on how advanced and realistic gas plans are. Any private firms that were interested in the greenfrog sale may be looking at something like this as a much cheaper way to gain entry/traction into this area.

[1savvyinvestor] 15/8/2018 10:05

Bmcb5. Thanks. I'm nothing to do with the company. Glad you realise that! Recent conversations with an industry expert indicated that there is still plenty of interest in revenue streams from diesel sites by the way. So the gloom expressed about the six diesel sites with 15 year contracts is misplaced .

[pbanus] 15/8/2018 10:02

yes, amusing that we both had the same thought! I think I remember your original name on here and the expert views that were given. What also concerns me is the procrastination in publishing full year PPG results, it appears the company are going to go right down to the wire on this and delay as much as possible. This suggests all is not well and there remains a strategy and funding void. Looking at the three remaining Rockpool investments, presumably those Rockpool investors signed up to fund the three remaining diesel sites, not gas sites. A gas site build would be much more expensive and based on different investment assumptions and timescales. Rockpool are looking to exit in Q2 2019, and gas sites take 8 months each to build. If there were a move to fund the gas sites as an alternative to the diesel, this would mean an additional fundraise and would invalidate the assumptions that the original Rockpool investors signed up to, some would wish to exit. This would be an administrative mess to handle.

[bmcb5] 15/8/2018 09:51

Though i don't think savvy or the others are directors at PPG. I'd be even more concerned if i thought that were the case. I'm sure that happens occasionally (company directors posting on advfn or elsewhere), but none of these guys show a deep enough knowledge of the industry to make me think they are involved

[dave4545] 15/8/2018 09:50

Bought some this morning as interest is increasing again

[bmcb5] 15/8/2018 09:48

It seems we had similar thought processes pb! I just posted observations next door

[bmcb5] 15/8/2018 09:45

I must be missing something (other than the update to Rockpool investors, which I obviously haven't seen). How does what savvy says sound good, other than the word 'positive'?

Nothing finalised, regarding 3 sites that are supposed to be up and running in <3 months time. How is that good, exactly?

I'm not suggesting that you should be ready to jump off buildings or anything, but I suspect that savvy could say "I've just put my socks in the wash", and you would somehow interpret that as good news for PPG.

Your job as an investor is to look after your capital. Interpreting everything you see as good news does not help that.

Excuse my rant.

[pbanus] 15/8/2018 09:41

Savvy "I can't say I understand what can and can't be said by companies on AIM." - excuse his ignorance he's only a director! However perhaps explains why he didn't bother to update the market on the PPG strategy following the disasterous CM auctions.

"A very positive update to Rockpool investors about the three remaining sites but "confidential" splashed over the update. Presumably nothing finalised...." So presumably nothing really said to Rockpool investors, and presumably just more of your bluster to ramp the shares based on a vacuum of news.

[nw99] 15/8/2018 08:44

Sounds good

[1savvyinvestor] 15/8/2018 08:12

I can't say I understand what can and can't be said by companies on AIM. A very positive update to Rockpool investors about the three remaining sites but "confidential" splashed over the update. Presumably nothing finalised and until it is we just have to bide our time!

[pbanus] 13/8/2018 23:53

completely agree MaybeSum, very surprised people are still falling for this now, given all that has been said. They are just buying into a dormant company.

[maybesum] 13/8/2018 22:42

The ramping thread with prawn and co. going into overdrive to try and entice the unwary into buying shares based on nothing at all from the company. Must be hoping the bid goes up so that they can sell into it. Same old ploy, repeat play.