Plutus Powergen Share Discussion Threads

[nw99] 04/3/2017 07:32

BP great post and insight I bought a load on Friday more ammo for next week thanks

[bishopawn] 04/3/2017 00:08

It looks to me that many people read only paragraphs one and two of the RNS (and panicked) and did not consider sufficiently paragraphs three and four, which I paste in below. Please read carefully:-

"The Board welcomes the proposed wider review of the regulatory and market arrangements surrounding network charges (the Targeted Charging Review or 'TCR') also promised by OFGEM. The Board believes this work will result in a more cohesive assessment that recognises and values the benefits that flexible energy generation plays in the UK currently by delivering a critical supply of energy to combat the instability and volatility created by the increasing use of renewables; which by their very nature provide power intermittently to the National Grid."

"PPG and its projects benefit from access to multiple revenue streams in addition to TRIAD, namely Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR) and Firm Frequency Response (FFR) as well as receipt of the prevailing power price at the time of generation. For PPG, the maiden profits recently reported in the Company's interim results were achieved via the receipt of management contracts for its projects before the commissioning of its Plymouth site, highlighting the continued scope for profit growth as it continues to add projects to its pipeline."

Four main points in these two paragraphs are as follows:-

(1) - The Board welcomes the proposed wider review of the regulatory and market arrangements

(2) - The Board believes this work will result in a more cohesive assessment that recognises and values the benefits that flexible energy generation plays in UK.

(3)- PPG and its projects benefit from access to multiple revenue streams in addition to TRIAD

(4) - the maiden profits recently reported in the Company's interim results were achieved via the receipt of management contracts for its projects before the commissioning of its Plymouth site, highlighting the continued scope for profit growth as it continues to add projects to its pipeline.

Point 4 reminds us that the maiden profit did not involve any income from the Plymouth Site. This site has been making a considerable amount of money since November and will be reflected in this year's results. As the RNS clearly indicates there is plenty of room for a growth in profits as Plutus will continue to commission further sites which already have planning permission.

There is sufficient asset finance to get all these up and running and more besides.

My conclusion:

The current weakness in the share price is a gift, if you have spare cash. A capitalisation of only £8 million is way undervalued. I believe the share price will be back up to 2 pence and above sooner than people expect.

[bishopawn] 03/3/2017 23:43

Fat chance.

[stardrops2] 03/3/2017 23:00

Ofgen made there statement the day prior to PPG making in my view a serious misjudgement in the wording of there RNS
Once we had this statement panic set in and that's were we are today.
I personally sold a good chunk prior to the RNS and sold and good chunk on the day of the RNS When markets allowed
Its still to early to buy back some did today but sellers came in after the bounce which is normal
I will be buying back in at 1p or sub
There are good posters on here but with all AIM Investments you need to be on the ball
GLA

[mrphiljones] 03/3/2017 20:36

Bish either knew what was coming and sold his shares OR he got it very wrong on this one,either way he's hardly gonna come out of it smelling of roses.....:-(

[marvin9] 03/3/2017 19:21

Have to say... those buying in after this news, are pure gamblers.

[marvin9] 03/3/2017 18:58

Do not think we will see the dizzy heights of 3p again anytime soon.

Might as well go away and come back in May

[marvin9] 03/3/2017 18:56

It is what it is and glad to see the share price has not fallen further today.

Hand in their if you can, but will disagree with the Darkside and say, they mystery mega dumper needs to be monitored and is a worrying proven concern for the direction of the share price.

[forwood] 03/3/2017 16:05

As has already been pointed IF Ofgen is able to make cuts to these payments, they will be phased in over 3 years and are intended to leave providers with sufficient profit to stay in business. The last point is clearly the issue as the headline cut appears to be huge. But as 1savvyinvestor reports in post 3754, 'peak power companies can achieve a return...' Although the Ofgen business case says it takes account of firms needs for sufficient profit etc, I suspect the paper proposal is a shot across the bows and if the companies are unable to see it off, the cut will be moderated.

Keeping the lights on is such a political issue, the govt simply cannot risk not having this capacity.

[marvelman] 03/3/2017 15:31

Fair comment Limegrass, your points are well made and on receptive ears I can assure you. Regards.

[marvelman] 03/3/2017 13:33

Limegrass

Your post requires a response. I disagree with your contention that nobody cares if the seller has gone or not. I am sure there are others who having been hammered by him by his sells prior to yesterday would feel a lot better knowing that a further lead weight on the share price has been taken out. I care not to enlighten you or anybody else on who the large stakeholder who has sold is. It is my own deduction from just one post yesterday which you are quite able to deduce for yourself. It is only my opinion and is not intended to either influence or offend and therefore as I have said previously I do not wish to expand on as it will only result in name calling...or sarcastic innuendo.

[forwood] 03/3/2017 12:56

market makers playing games again - all those recent 'sells' at 1.415 to 1.424 were buys. 2x 100k of them mine (the 12:06 buy of 200k at 1.4277 also mine is shown correctly).

I suspect this is a consequence of automated trading and price setting and inadequate spreads - mms' software just seeing a trade below the midpoint, taking it as a sell and adjusting the price accordingly. Great if you come in at the conclusion, bloody annoying if you've just bought in good faith!

The reality here is they bought no stock at the price they're selling it for (1.3949) and are making a loss on it.

[bishopawn] 03/3/2017 12:45

280,986 at 12.41 pm is a BUY (mine).

[1savvyinvestor] 03/3/2017 11:43

Rockpool are great and terriers once they get their teeth into an issue. Apparently there is talk of a judicial challenge too

[danyo11] 03/3/2017 11:23

Interesting - thanks Savvy!!

[nw99] 03/3/2017 11:22

Great post thank you

[1savvyinvestor] 03/3/2017 11:20

Just received an interesting email from Rockpool which was in answer to a question regarding the effect of the proposal on viability of the 9 Rockpool funded sites; This is it -
We've been expecting a reduction in Triad payments, although this is at the bottom end of the range of outcomes. It doesn't destroy the business model as the companies have capacity payments (which we always viewed as upside) and balancing services (STOR, FFR etc). Furthermore the changes in Triad are being phased in and won't be fully effective until the winter of 2020/21. Our current expectation is that all the peak power companies can achieve a return in-line with the base case in the original blueprints.

[limegrass] 03/3/2017 11:07

A couple of points.

I don't think anyone cares if the seller of the last few weeks is still selling or not. In the light of the recent sell-off his continued selling has become something of an irrelevance. The only interesting thing would be to know who it was and his motives for doing so. That would be very interesting. Perhaps you could point us to the telling post, marvelman.

And nobody knows if the company has legs from here. Nobody at all. It all depends on Ofgem's decision in May. If anyone tries to pretend otherwise he or she is talking out of the back of his or her neck.

[marvelman] 03/3/2017 10:48

I sold yesterday like many and took my loss...not the first time and won't be the last. Big Government again changing the rules after encouraging such enterprises and then, just as with diesel cars, pulling the rug from under us with no qualms. However, with a market cap now of just £8 million this still has legs from here even though the seller is likely still around and after one telling post from yesterday I am now convinced who that has been but will say no more on the subject. So I have bought back in with half of my original investment but at 1.45 rather than the 1.72 I sold (although of course it does not compare to "glad I sold last week"). The loss I made will take a long time to recoup but I believe the management of this company will be up to it.

[folderboy] 03/3/2017 10:48

Oh dear - think I may had added, today, a little too early.

[trader2] 03/3/2017 10:13

Ofgem proposes to accept an industry proposal to reduce the payments from the current level of around £45/kW to around £2/kW. Sure sounds a reduction to me!

[gerrykells] 03/3/2017 09:31

I sold 40% of holding yesterday. Holding onto the other (not insignificant)60%. Admittedly it is a bit of a punt on the OFGEM ruling in May. Going through as proposed yesterday would not be good. Ammended terms (hopeful for) and we're back on track. Thrown out and we're flying. That's my reading. Fingers crossed for May is what it's down to I'm afraid.

[1savvyinvestor] 03/3/2017 09:14

Once the dust has settled we all want this to return to being a solid boring investment. At least we are being noticed !! Oscar Wilde once said : there is only one thing worse than being talked about and that is not being talked about !