Physiomics Share Discussion Threads

[the stigologist] 04/2/2018 21:15

Could be a couple of big weeks ahead

[margic] 04/2/2018 20:03

I've found over the years that it doesn't always matter how good you are. That can get you to a 'make point' it's branding from there (jealous eyes will call it luck). £500mil a year - Multi deal - Merck - investment banking team invested and holding stock - cash in the bank- 5-6 month £35k deal - results of other trails to follow - more deals in the pipeline - 2 Major pharmas now on board - oxford university based - Circa £4.75mil market cap - only 58mil shares available. At worst it's not exactly cheap now but reasonable- cheap value for what's 'in' black and white ink dry etc. Imo of course. Don't really need the tech to be amazing from here. There are only a handful of types and it's needed. Not much more you can ask for punt or not. I'm not suggesting PYC will 'fake it to make it' but from where there are today as opposed to when the market cap was £500k they could easily do that and still make today's price look cheap. Can't say for how long but it would be long enough for everyone to be very happy. Well nearly everyone. Before the Merck deal £500k market cap didn't mean anything, there wasn't anything happening imo. Now there's a difference. Only Feb, and £550k odd that will be paid into the company almost certainly before year end. The target for the company now should be to secure a second contract of similar value and prove up £1mil earnings this year. That would be a solid foundation. The next phase would be to exploit the grants available and push on to the next level. When the irons hot you need to strike and the iron has finally been switched on here. Personally I expect a flow of contracts now and the wheels to start gathering pace. The successful completion of the £35k of the deal by the summer with some detail as to who we are playing with. From a trading perspective buyer were drying up last week. Tomorrow is a new week, and may bring a new wave of sellers, just from watching price and trades PYC must be oversold. Over sold at 7.5p+ level. You can always panic a new wave of sellers on the aim no doubt there are many ways bbs mms and such a like can trigger new sellers but with such limited stock I'm pretty sure many want to add but can't, and many won't won't to sell and many are already very tied up. For all the sellers there were a fair few buyers taking some back last week, none of which are in any real profit. The week ahead will be interesting but right now technically, although it does show weakness it also shows a perfect fly point. Being completely honest, I think this will spark at any given moment and think tomorrow and next week will be very interesting. Watching volumes from here. 10mil can easy be done in a day here. Going to enjoy watching mms control this if PYC announce a J.V off the back off a grant in the 10's of mils' . Forget a pressure cooker be more like a pressurised cylinder. I actually have a first target of 95p set for a spike. I'm not saying that will hit or trigger but I know there's a good chance PYC's share price can hit that in the near future. Depends how she runs!

[pwhite73] 04/2/2018 19:38

ZEBBO

7p is only considered worth a punt because the shares shot up to 32p but a month ago. When the stock was 1p suggestions of a punt at 7p would bave resulted in one of us calling the Samaritans on your behalf.

[zebbo] 04/2/2018 17:59

Agree Margic. The Pharmas know what they are doing. They know a hell of a lot more than ANY of us, so no point debating tech no of us know intimately

Getting further deals is key. Any future grants can also have a profound effect on SP, look at N4P on Friday.

Bottom line, the risk is 7p downside 20p++ upside. I would say thats worth a punt with JM at the helm

[margic] 04/2/2018 13:31

Great example. That does help me understand exactly what you're saying and does explain why follow. I'll defo use that to guide me more when looking into it deeper. So again thanks. We'll discuss that one another day, give me time to have half a leg to stand on ;)G.weekend mate.

[the stigologist] 04/2/2018 12:20

Ex Founder of Physiomics (PYC) Peter Hoskins who writes on ADVFN as "ant15"

ant15 - 30 Nov 2017 - 15:07:26 - 3710 of 4892

Writing as a Founder of Physiomics

I am a shareholder but do not represent the company in any capacity.

WHY THIS SHARE IS WORTH A £1.00 giving it a market cap of still less than £60.million

*It is first to market

*Scarcity of trained personnel in what is still an emergent technology ( there are currently over a 1000 vacancies to be filled in this sector and few trained personnel )

*The development time needed to populate models and most importantly the availability of patient data that needs to be accessed apart from what is available in the literature is protracted PYC has been through this curve perfecting its models over time.

* The Biometric Grant serves to demonstrate not only the faith in the company but also underpins the access PYC is being given to Patient data In this case in the field of Oesophgeal Cancer

*Collaborations with major pharmas have been constrained whilst the models are perfected and due to the secretive nature of all pharmas who generally speaking do not want to share data. The latest contract has dramatically increased the visibility of what PYC do and do best and will encourage a raft of Biotech analysts to write it up as more contracts are announced

*PYC's Cardiac Toxicity Model is 50% plus better than any other available on the market Why is this important? it is the major cause of attrition in clinical trials
( drug failure )

*The cost savings PYC is able to realise for major Pharma is key and further to small Biotechnology companies whose funding is limited as they try to move molecules into clinical trials.

* Big Pharmas feed their development pipelines by acquiring or licensing in small bio's however these sales have moved progressively from Targets 20 years ago to IND candidates and onto Phase 1/2 putting the burden of proof onto the small Bio Techs who need to conserve and raise cash ( not easy and never has been )

*In 2010 Scientific American stated the cost of Development of a drug from start to finish FDA approval was $1.4 billion...In 2016 Association of British Pharmaceutical Industry Has upped this to £1.5 billion ( sterling) a really significant increase. NOTING that only 1 in 5000 drugs get final approval and this is not factored into the costs as above as representing only a successful transition of 1 drug to approval

*In America alone $12-%14 billion per year is spent on Animal Testing Robert Solari a senior research fellow at Imperial College states "The predictive power of biology in reseach is relatively poor in research labs" and notes that the efficacy of animal testing are not particulary predictive of Human Efficacy PYC is "in Silico" ( in computer) its accuracy is one of its major plus points

* PYC is striving to personalised medicine The HOLY GRAIL with tremendous Social and Financial Implications.

* Sooner rather than later The FDA in America will have to recognise that rational drugs designed in computers can be tested in them too saving countless millions of development costs and most importantly time taken to approval ie move from the 20 to the 21st century

* PYC has taken time to develop its excellent technology I believe I have cited the reasons for its true value. It has been challenged in recent times but has now become of age an is exceptionally well positioned in a market sector that is set to expand exponentially.

To recap A leading British Technology currently way undervalued and one that is not a speculative BUY It has proven technology in a burgeoning sector and might well become the focus of an acquisition target as it is still so undervalued

[pwhite73] 04/2/2018 12:09

One final point is that can you really have a Virtual Human Being? where if a drug is successful on it does it mean the drug will be successful on the 6 billion other people who inhabitat the planet. Of course not because we are all different.

What you fail to understand is that this also applies to tumors. Each tumor is as unique as the human being it occupies. Does a drug that halts or reduces the growth in a virtual tumor work on 6 billion other people?.

That is the dilemma that PYC faces and why the company has not made any real traction in the last 13 years.

The FDA decision to allow computational models to be used in clinical drug trials is a positive move because Pharmas are not making any progress on the eradication of cancer but it does not solve the riddle that plagues the whole oncology sector:-

How to prevent and eradicate cancer cells whilst leaving the patient unharmed.

[pwhite73] 04/2/2018 11:58

Margic - "Also correct in I don't really understand science talk."

Ok fair dos but I do understand science talk and why I argue PYC hasn't changed.

You can look at PYC this way. Lets say the company builds the first Virtual Human Being (VHB)never mind just a virtual tumor. Pharmas will only need the one model on which to carry out all their clinical trials and there is only a few Pharmas on the market anyway that would want it. They don't make any money from owning a VHB they make their money from the drugs they sell as a result of succesful clinical trials on the VHB.

The other thing is this owning a VHB does not guarantee successful drug trials. Of all new drugs at clinical stage only 5% make it to market. The efficacy of the drug itself has nothing to do with owning a VHB. Even with owning a VHB bringing drugs to market is a hit and miss affair with 95% of the time a miss.

But what makes it all worth it is that you only need the one hit and it can make up for all the losses over the last 20 years for that is how long the patent on protected drugs last.

All PYC is selling is a VHB model. In no shape or form does it guarantee drug success and their is also an argument as to whether Pharmas make any savings from the use of it. But that discussion is for another day.

[margic] 04/2/2018 11:36

Not the strongest at archiving either!

[margic] 04/2/2018 11:36

Also correct in I don't really understand science talk. Happy to admit. Numbers and 'spot the dog' are more my strengths! Lol

[margic] 04/2/2018 11:06

I think in simple terms whats changed for me in the last 8 years I've been watching and PYC in PYC is that the Merck deal finally translated into a significant financial deal. PYC will earn a minimum of £500k on a multi-year deal that's safe to presume is 3 years or more. That's will have a domino effect. It means the potential for PYC to make more deals that are over £50k or some of the silly amounts over the years have significantly improved and will gather far more pace. Accelerating that forward Years. You sell the best diamonds on the market, but you can't sell them much more than the going rate because your new to the market, buyers don't really know you, your brand is new and it's recognition is at a low. You nail a deal with a top 10 diamond dealer a few years later, by now your brand has built, the quality of your product has proved it's worth in certain circles and you step in with a good deal with a major. What happens to your business and you're product next? Your brand recognition has just gone from minnow dealing with minnows and the occasional flirt with a big player to a minnow that is now in a good long term deal with a major player. That in my opinion would only attract the other major players, like lions smelling free meat. Each deal in the pharma industry tends to be followed but a bigger deal and a better deal with one of that majors competitors as they all begin a chase for to beat their competitor if they believe their competitor has an edge. If the majors believe Merck have a great deal and Merck will have a major benefit from this deal and product you can bet your bottom dollar everyone else will want in on the action and there will be some that might not want anyone else to have it. PYC market cap being sub £500k no longer matters. They will now earn that every year. PYC are now in a position where grants of millions can be accessed, more deals are going to come through and in this period now, some of the hot money is still in because there's far more value that can land here. As ever, it's not a given, it's not a reflection of what PYC have now it's cheap based on the potential and likely timing of trails results to come and further deal announcements and partnerships, etc that will start to flow off the back of the Merck deal. The doors will well and truly be open for PYC, unlike in the last 8 years for me or 13 for you. If you believe nothing will ever change, why watch for 13 years. I watched the best part of 8 because I believed one day something big could happen so followed the story and for me, nows the chance the story will change. It doesn't, and money dwindles away, if my timing is correct I get to buy under 10p before PYC land say a £1mil a year deal with funding at no further dilution PYC will be 10p+ with further potential for deals, grants, spikes, lack of liquidity, etc. The point is right now, PYC is potentially one of the hottest prospects on the whole aim. To make the most money you need to be invested before that potential is realised. I believe this is the time for PYC. PYC as a stock also trades in the ways described below, again for me that means there will be great trading opportunities off things like rumours to increase my holding for nothing and doing it in a relatively safe and ungreedy way. It's an investors and traders dream right now. It hasn't been for both sides the last 13-15-20 years but today it is. The Merck deal is the biggest validation. If it was a one off it would have been a short deal, the fact it's a multi year deal, and was signed negotiated when PYC had a £509k market cap says it all. Merck will feel they have got a stellar deal and PYC have just secured themselves off the back of it. It massively strengthens any negotiating positions. I see why you are so negative, and PYC can still just spend the next 2-3 years drifting all the way back down, but when you add up just how many different ways PYC could start to fly, right now at this point in the business, it's hard to also see why if you have been watching it for 13 years, don't hold stock, dedicate a fair amount of time to it, but don't plan to invest now or never, why waste time here in the first place. If you honestly don't think this isn't pycs most likely time ever to go big and it's going to take many many moons longer, I can understand then. Wouldn't it be better though to cut your PYC commitment down say to 5% of your efforts now until that time if ever? I did that, and now I'm here. Committed and loving being part of it.

[billthebank] 04/2/2018 10:43

PWhite Whats new? Jim Millen is what's new. He has not been in the chair long and already he is advancing the company.

From Final Year results

The Company has had significant success in maintaining and extending its relationship with a major pharma client and established or re-established contact with more than fifty potential clients (in some cases past clients) over the course of the year. The Directors believe that leveraging the Company's capabilities and technology into the related discipline of personalised medicine will, if successful, create significant shareholder value.


From RNS Dated 02/10/17

There are three potential clients (two big one medium pharma) with whom there are active discussions on potential projects and we aim to convert at least one of these potential clients into a contract over the next six months. However, there can be no guarantee that any of these leads will convert, further updates will be provided as appropriate.



Discussions relating to potential collaborations with other service providers

In addition to the direct approaches to clients outlined above, the Company has engaged in discussions with six other larger service provider companies with a view to business collaborations. We also aim to convert one of these collaboration discussions into a deal over the next six months but again there can be no guarantee that this will happen.2018



Developing a commercial tool will require further work once the prototype has been completed and to this end the Company has identified several substantial, non-dilutive funding opportunities from government grants. There can be no guarantee that these grants will be awarded and further updates will be provided in due course.

That is all in the last three months. Seems pretty dam good to me for a small sub £5M c/v company. The Merck contract may be in other guises long standing but now it is a £500K/annum contract which is now a multi year contract which could be more it could be less but it is now a multi year contract and that is good enough for me Clearly not for you but hey ho it rakes all sorts to make a world

[pwhite73] 04/2/2018 10:09

I appreciate scientific medical journals are way too complicated for any of you to understand so I have dug out the specific article for your perusal.



"Illustration of Merck's variety of systems pharmacology models for virtual organs, tissue and diseases developed in house and with external partners. Courtesy of the virtual tumor graphic is Physiomics PLC."

[pwhite73] 04/2/2018 09:50

Margic

You are trying to cover two bases at the same time. A transformation of the company and hot money chasing the limited amount of shares.

PYC has a market cap of £4.6m. The sole reason it has a market cap of this size is because £4m of Joe Mug PI hot money is still trapped in the stock as a result of the 3200% rise and collapse late last year. The JC fiasco also trapped in a lot PI money but not so much. On 27/11/2017 PYC had a market cap of just £587k and this is after 13 years of trading and being listed.

On 28/11/2017 PYC announced a cementing of the relationship with Merck that had been ongoing since 2012. PYC stated :-

"Physiomics can now confirm that it has been working with Merck since March 2012," and "Physiomics believes that the Agreement represents a significant external validation of its Virtual Tumour technology by Merck."

Those who like me have been following the stock for 13 years would be aware that this old news. Back in 2014 PYC had already disclosed Merck as a partner and that they had validated the VT technology by publishing its usage in a scientific medical paper.

RNS 04/11/2014 Disclosure of Large Pharma partner Merck & Co

Merck & Co. published a paper in CPT: Pharmacometrics and Systems Biology (part of Nature Group) in which Virtual Tumour was specified as a technology which had helped their decision-making process.

The paper can be accessed at:



SO AGAIN I ASK WHAT'S NEW?

[margic] 03/2/2018 20:22

What ever people think of cropper his buying was at a crucial time technically. He stopped the share price going sub 6p and it's now found strength around the 8p mark it looks a perfect spring board even Tom Daley would love to dive some money into. It's not going to take much to take this to 20p and beyond now but very useful if something nudges it next week. Be that more credence to the simmering theory and link behind the 'New Major Pharma' being GSK. We can only guess at what a longer term deal with someone like GSK does for PYC and in turn it's market cap. It's a massive massive Coup and just off that alone the next contract will fly in. The issue for those who have been slow to burn with PYC is that if they are indeed now into a deal with GSK with a good chance of success the price goes up for everyone. In truth everyone has Merck to thanks or you could go back to Ely. One leads to the other and it is getting better every time.There are some results due on a couple of fronts. There's other bits we could guess at coming next from PYC. What also remains is the hot money. It does seem to time well with PYC and with only 58mil share in circulation demand for PYC stock on sentiment can really start to excel the share price and then volumes and this can be tricky for mms. In terms of float and liquidity, matched next to price it's not hard to see why PYC could be marked to 50p+. Just on the supply and demand factor alone. That's why it can be erratic. If a major deal is announced and people want the stock bad and don't want to sell, it won't take long for PYC to have no stock or seller available. The remaining free float could be gobbled within hours. Back with good news or rumour pending confirmation, a significant deal or grant which can come in many forms at the moment here. There's many many ways that PYC's valve could multi-bag and more from here. It's not for the faint hearted but it doesn't take a calculator to see that PYC can average 5mil volume, that's effectively 10% of the company. That amount can be hit in minute on a good rns and rumour. When you consider that a deal in the region of £1.5-2mil a year with GSK was to be announced any point this year that would cause the share price to fly. There are many other outs the can be better pointed out by the regular long term posters, that could add far more significant value to the share price A grant for money and patents are also in line to be awarded. It's a good time to hold stock here. Anything from 1p to 10p is value here. What remains to be seen is 'what' and 'when' in RNS form.

[billthebank] 02/2/2018 18:45

My anglo saxon has never been good but yeah I cannot disagree with that

[billthebank] 02/2/2018 18:43

My anglo saxon has never been good but yeah I cannot disagree with that

[zebbo] 02/2/2018 16:44

On a risk-reward basis, PYC looks a very good bet, low maybe 5p high could be 20p+ based on share price performance to date.
See what happened to N4P when it got a sniff of grant funding..That must be on the cards for PYC;-) Then there is a good possibility of further deals etc. Talk of 2p is ludicrous and not based on PYC today.

[margic] 02/2/2018 14:30

Technicals will also play there part. Specially for targeting regions, price zones and exit and re-entry points.

[the stigologist] 02/2/2018 14:27

Nice reversal.

No need for bickering.

Research speaks for itself.
Fundamentals will out.
Momentum strong.

[margic] 02/2/2018 14:12

And again.......Mmmmmm......

[margic] 02/2/2018 14:08

Okay ! MMS marking this back up....... mmmmm.......