Physiomics Share Discussion Threads

[the stigologist] 20/12/2020 13:14

Some comments based off this week's Hybridan Research Note

Phenomenal week of news for PYC for both the core Modelling and Simulation / Biosimulation business and the new blue sky exciting growth area of Personalised Precision Medicine

1. UK Government funding of £150k for a Precision Dosing App trial with Portsmouth NHS Technology Trials Unit

2. Merck sign up for £270k of 'initial' Modelling and Simulation contracts for 2021

3. Physiomics sign partnership deal with $1bn US Company Tabula Rasa Healthcare (TRHC) to commercialise Precision Dosing App in the huge US market



Some interesting numbers here on potential of US Precision Dosing market opportunity just in Prostate Cancer !

170,000 Prostate Cancer cases p.a. in US
20-30% advanced metastatic with only 30% 5 year survival rate
So an addressable market of 34,000 to 51,000
Exposure controlled dosing could help significant proportion in terms of survival and toxic side effects
Question becomes how much do TRHC/PYC charge for access to this software ?
At a very reasonable $100 per 'test' you'd be looking at revenues of $3.4m to $5.1 p.a.
I'd guess TRHC take majority of revenues whilst PYC get a royalty of say 10% ?
$0.34m-0.51m on a 50x multiple for 'high quality' royalty earnings stream basis could be worth $17-25m in valuation terms

Note RENX pricing for their CKD test is set at $950 a go so my numbers could be out by 10x !

Given a course of docetaxel can cost several thousand dollars maybe PYC/TRHC could justify that sort of rate in which case you're looking at potential market size of $34-51m and a PYC valuation of $170-250m !




Finally on the 'old core Modelling and Simulation' side of the business the IPO of Certara CERT has demonstrated the value the US market places on such businesses

PYC has circa £1m revenue per annum so on 25x revenue the 'unexciting' old core business should be valued at £25m !

Add the blue sky exciting Personalised Medicine business with a very conservative valuation of $17-25m (but with huge upside potential depending on how this scales up) we should be sitting at around £37.5m - £40m IMO

i.e. around 40p per share

[albert3591] 19/12/2020 17:13

I don’t look at lse.

[dubian99] 19/12/2020 17:00

13 and counting on lse, or did you want that here

[albert3591] 19/12/2020 16:52

Forgot to say well done boris for doing the right thing this afternoon

[the stigologist] 19/12/2020 14:38

Not often a $1 Billion Company with $300m annual revenues gushes about a deal with a £6m Company with £1m revenues... but note how Tabula Rasa TRHC have 2 of their Execs on this RNS

[davevt] 18/12/2020 23:31

Mark, why would they regret anything.

They can buy in again you know...you do realise the price is going down right?

People don't just take profits and run away, never to return lol

[maddie275] 18/12/2020 23:06

I think people have ‘easily’ forgotten yesterday...
For what it was...
Ask anyone at 10p plus..?

[bobby.ifa] 18/12/2020 22:18

It will come good.

[markth126] 18/12/2020 20:02

I think people have quickly forgotten yesterday's news, took some profit but will regret the bigger picture unfolding in front of us! IMO

[maddie275] 18/12/2020 16:07

As I said earlier, verging on ‘criminal̵7; that so many minor, private investors will now be ‘locked’ in at a considerable loss due to MMs highly dubious... no, down right, deceitful activities..!
Feel for them/us...
Although... I blame ONLY myself for not taking 50%+ profits..!
Again..!!!!!

[davevt] 18/12/2020 15:53

Where's Stig? 🤣🤣🤣

[chesty1] 18/12/2020 15:35

Selling SNG to buy this you’re mad!!

[markth126] 18/12/2020 15:04

Well didn't think the stars would align like this but managed to sell some SNG and bought again here thank you.

[davevt] 18/12/2020 14:35

What has expert industry knowledge got anything to do with knowing about buying and selling shares?

I mean look, at the price, I'm right, and Mr 'industry knowledge' is wrong.

[dubian99] 18/12/2020 14:35

Mr Ali will be filling his boots no doubt

[dubian99] 18/12/2020 13:20

Tr1 - are you saying he hasn't got Expert industry knowledge or 'something', not insider knowledge, or is it you with Expert knowledge,

weekly rise and falls of aim shares are disconnected from incremental progress they make over months and years, comes a point when anyone with any brains understands the culmination of progress, News and indicated deals breaks that pattern or creates a buyer mkt,
your obviously bitter and fixated spamming everywhere

[davevt] 18/12/2020 12:18

dubian...this share has had loads of tr1s and always plummets.

Why do people think if they see someone doing a tr1 that they must know something? They are as clueless as the rest of you.

[dubian99] 18/12/2020 11:57

Hence why your a bb moron and the ex AstraZeneca director has a TR1

[valuetracker] 18/12/2020 11:50

I value PYC at 3.5p

[maddie275] 18/12/2020 11:42

Bye bye profits..!
It was nice to make your brief acquaintance..!!!