Phoenix It Share Discussion Threads

[qs9] 25/11/2009 18:25

anyone else enjoying the move towards £3?

[qs9] 24/11/2009 12:38

cracking move up...

[whatlp] 30/10/2009 15:36

more sells than buys would be my guess

[qs9] 30/10/2009 12:10

why the sharp dip?

[geovest] 16/6/2009 06:49

Good momentum with strong longer term fundamentals. Chart looks very positive also. Short term may have run ahead a bit and we may see some pull back to the 200 level before resuming the upward trend.

[qs9] 15/6/2009 20:25

And continuing even on a -2% day for FTSE...looks very good IMO, anyone else agree?

[qs9] 11/6/2009 09:09

looking like institutions IMO are stake building, nice steady rise, more to come iMO....

[kiwi2007] 01/6/2009 22:10

Shares in IT services company Phoenix rose more than 10% in the morning session after a sparkling set of results which came in slightly ahead of broker Panmure Gordon's expectations.

Panmure Gordon is increasing its earning per share estimate for 2010 from 25.8p to 27.4p, despite Phoenix management's assertion that 2010 figures to be challenging.

'In a downturn, Phoenix IT's sales message of third party services should resonate with buyers. This move increases our target price to 219p from 201p previously,' Panmure Gordon said.

[kiwi2007] 01/6/2009 13:18

Nice results today.

Got a mention at the weekend too: David Schwartz

Turning to my own trading activity, I have just opened a speculative position in Phoenix IT Group. The company will issue an earnings report on Monday morning.
Right now, its shares are drifting near their all-time low. By contrast, the FTSE Software and Computer Services index gained about 50 per cent since touching its low last November. Phoenix shares clearly failed to participate in that rally and several factors probably contributed to this poor performance.
Some analysts claim Phoenix had trouble digesting an acquisition made in May 2007. Institutional investors are also concerned about the heavy debt load caused by that acquisition.
Another problem was the departure of the chief executive. He was considered to be the driving force behind the partner services division, a sub-
contracting business. Revenues in that division soon began to slip.
But a flood of fresh information leads me to suspect the City may be missing a turnround opportunity. On the issue of debt, Phoenix generates cash and is rapidly reducing its debt load. Progress is well ahead of expectations.
The company's recent trading update spoke of good trading conditions. The ex-CEO is now back at the helm. Analysts believe he will reinvigorate the partner services division. Several have issued strong "Buy" ratings on the company.
Some "soft" information also intrigues me. Investor bulletin boards make little mention of Phoenix, suggesting this company is unloved by private punters as well as City institutions. Daily trading volume is low as well. Big bounces often occur when unloved shares suddenly catch on....

Not a fan of the BB Muppetts !!

[bses] 13/10/2008 18:08

I have been told Phoenix are losing a lot of contracts due bad integration of acquired companies, also making redundancies. I think with the current climate we will still see a further downward trend.

[tole] 13/10/2008 16:29

Altium downgraded forecasts a touch today - now looking for 24.3p EPS for 2009e

Though still have a buy rec out on them - focusing on the excessive fall with TP 250p

[2lb] 10/10/2008 11:18

Poor update - unsurprising reaction.

[2lb] 08/10/2008 23:02

Not disputing that - 170p is what I was expecting - have changed it to 160, then 150 and then 140!

not trying to be clever - just couldn't be bothered writing new posts!

If you know how to use ADVFN then you will already know that you can check all post edits in any case, I use that a lot.

[bigboyo] 08/10/2008 22:10

2LB

note that your price drop moved from 170p to 140p -- presumably edited in last couple of days -- to take into account actual current price -- the giveaway was your post of 26 sept where the 10% drop would have taken us to 170p -- which is what your post said before being edited

trying to catch a falling knife can chop fingers and reputations !

[2lb] 03/10/2008 12:48

From the annual report

Principal risks and uncertainties
As a result of the contracted revenues in the order book, the Group has a high degree of forward visibility of its revenues over the next twelve months. Nonetheless, there are a number of potential risks and uncertainties which could have a material impact on the Group's performance over the current financial year and which could cause the Group's actual results to materially deviate from expected and historical results.

Integration risk
The ongoing integration of ICM and reorganisation of the Group into three customer facing divisions supported by Shared Operations and Corporate Services is expected to yield material annual cost savings and operational efficiencies. Execution of the plan is now well underway and the Group has good visibility of the remaining actions and activities, the synergies that will be delivered and the one-off costs arising. However, an activity of this scale may cause short term disruption to the Group. To mitigate this risk the integration activity has been thoroughly planned, external advisers have been used where appropriate, and the Group parallel-runs activities to test the effectiveness of the new processes. The resulting plans are being executed in series and are being tested at each stage to ensure that any disruption to the Group's customers is either eliminated or minimised.

Acquisition risk
Since November 2004, the Group has made three successful acquisitions. However, acquisitions can involve risks that may have a material impact on the Group. The Group mitigates this risk by undertaking thorough due diligence, and, where practical, by contractual representations, warranties and indemnities.

Competitor risk
The IT services industry is highly competitive. Several competitors, including, in some cases, Phoenix's partners, have longer operating histories, higher brand recognition, greater financial, technical, marketing, personnel and other resources than the Group. The Group's competitors have, and other potential competitors may have, well established relationships with current and potential partners of the Group. As a result, these competitors may be able to respond more quickly to new or emerging technology and changes in partner requirements, or to devote greater resources to the development, promotion and sale of their services, than the Group. In addition, the Group may experience increased competition from low cost outsourcing centres, including offshore centres, and new or existing niche market participants whose costs, particularly for labour and for service desks may be lower. Increased competition could lead to the loss of market share, loss of material contracts, renegotiation of price levels or a general reduction in revenues of the Group.

Macro economic risk
Whilst the Group has not seen any downturn in activity the recent tightening of credit and increases in market interest rates could lead to a slowing of growth in the UK economy. However, while there is a risk of macro economic factors and particularly the so called 'credit crunch' affecting direct sales activities, this risk is mitigated by the high proportion of long term contracted annuity business.






PLUS

Jeremy Stafford had a guaranteed bonus for the year ended 31 March 2008 of £250,000 (first year only).


Nice work if you can get it - get appointed, oversee a 53% fall in the share price then get £250k guaranteed, non performance related bonus

[2lb] 30/9/2008 11:35

Speaking to people at ICM.

These quotes are only a few weeks after the purchase so have little real value - it will be interesting to see what is said in the next update.

Still seeing 140p as the floor before a levelling out prior to an update.

[bigboyo] 29/9/2008 07:57

I have looked at the last accounts released in May and this is the statment relating to ICM. Th Board also confirmed this in their interim managment statment in August.

What is your source of infor regarding ICM integration problems ??

FROM MAY 2008 FINAL RESULTS >>>>>

Operational Highlights
* Acquired control of ICM Computer Group plc ('ICM') on 29th May 2007; integration with existing businesses on track and will be
complete, as planned by autumn 2008
* Current year synergy savings of £1.7m and anticipate total synergies of £5.5m in the year to 31 March 2009

[2lb] 26/9/2008 08:20

Not expecting a further 10% drop - am expecting that a further 10% is the maxiumim drop from now to November but that the price will settle around these lelves with that as a floor.

Market very nervous and PNX not looking great on what we can see - there may be some good stuff in the background but I beleive that ICM has been a problem - it was bought for a price not massively below the current PNX MCAP - sign of a poor acquisition in terms of price and subsequent performance. Acquiring businesses and integrating them is one of the hardest things you can do, around 80% of acquisitions ulimately fail.

[bigboyo] 25/9/2008 18:40

Given the nature of the rns -- if the board was aware of any reason why the next payment was NOT going to be received then another rns to that effect would have to be issued.

Shame that there is such little debate on this stock little gem on here --- still undecided on whether to buy in --- may not be able to resist for too much longer.

2LB , how did u arrive at a further 10% drop ??

[2lb] 24/9/2008 08:37

Just started to take a closer look.

H1 finishes on Tuesday, problem appears to be with the ICM acquisition, not sure this has turned out too well.

If renvues and profits have contiuned to grow then the PE will drop into single figures, so worth a look.

Clearly the current market malaise has had some impact, hence the RNS to reassure about the financial contract - however this will only become evident if the next payment is received in November and openly suggests that other contracts could be at risk.

I would expect the price to settle or fall up to 10% before November.

[bigboyo] 24/9/2008 08:32

severely tempted to buy --- crazy price -- any rumours ??

[2lb] 23/9/2008 11:40

Hope nobody did.................

[romi2nikki1] 04/9/2008 19:31

Unusual number of brokers cover the stock, currently nearly all rating as a buy.

[ged5] 03/2/2008 16:01

A piece in the Times yesterday about the out of favour software sector. This is quite surprising given the three bids in the sector recently.

They are expecting more consolidation with PNX a prime candidate given the 47% drop in share price since recent highs, it being cashflow positive and such a low PER.

Quite a long article but worth a read if you can get hold of it.