Phoenix It Share Discussion Threads

[ged5] 18/5/2005 13:20

A brief summary here for anyone who doesn't want to trawl through the results.

[ged5] 18/5/2005 11:52

Thanks for that. The sector average is higher than I thought it would be. So if PNX had the sector average pe we'd have a price of £5.34 with today's eps of 19.2p.

Lots of buying yesterday pm. You'd have thought at least one would be an ADVFNer. Perhaps they're all just quietly confident of future growth.

[diogenesj] 18/5/2005 11:29

Average historic PE for the software and computer services sector (according to this morning's FT) is 27.83x. Certainly makes Phoenix look cheap (historic PE now 20.3x on reported earnings, or 14x on normalised earnings, prospective PE subject to revised forecasts but perhaps about 11x).

Despite that, you and I appear to be the only holders!

[ged5] 18/5/2005 10:59

Not so sure the renewal is too much of a problem. They mentioned earlier that they had "...greater levels of business with a number of partners and particularly with BT...".

It would appear then that they have a good relationship with BT as they seem to do with all their business partners. But yes with 10% of the years orders at stake it is something to look out for.

They seem to value NDR and it looks as if they are seeking to maximise the new opportunities it will bring to PNX.

Does anybody have a clue of the sector average price earnings ratio?

[diogenesj] 18/5/2005 10:04

That seems to be about it. Eps well ahead, pre goodwill and exceptionals. Excellent cash flow and strong order book. However, the very large acquisition of NDR since the year end means that it's hard to know what is going to happen this year. No doubt brokers will now be producing new forecasts.

There is also the warning that the large BT contract (£12m pa) is due for renewal this year.

[ged5] 18/5/2005 09:29

lol

They look strong to me although we don't seem to have met brokers forecasts for PBT but well exceeded them on eps. Correct me if I'm wrong. DPS was spot on.

Order book and cash flow look good

[ged5] 18/5/2005 07:55

Is everybody trying to digest the results?

[ch99] 09/5/2005 17:02

Does anybody know why so many big sales today, does insider know some finacial result before us??

[diogenesj] 29/4/2005 17:56

He does point out the weakness that 10 customers account for 2/3rds of turnover, and that many contracts are due for renewal this year. Failure to renew any of them could affect the forecasts, I suppose.

The current Mr Bearbull has to be taken seriously in view of his record, but some time ago when he described his valuation method I tried to understand it and failed.

I find it hard to take his other pick Flying Brands seriously (but perhaps that's because I lost money on them some years ago).

[ged5] 29/4/2005 17:33

Mr. Bearbull article in the IC today. Worth a read. Doesn't consider future forecast earnings but very fair. Certainly agree with the buying strategy.

[ged5] 26/4/2005 19:08

A little bit more I found. The link is earlier this year but I noticed there isn't any reference to the Phoenix website on this thread. Also a nice little piece of information about the company's aspirations to achieve £100m turnover. Some impressive partners.

About Phoenix IT Group Limited

Phoenix IT Group Limited is the holding company for Phoenix IT Services Limited and Phoenix IT Services SA(France). These subsidiaries deliver managed IT services exclusively through Partners in the ICT industry. Phoenix IT Group Limited is independently owned, with Nick Robinson and Alchemy as major shareholders.

Phoenix delivers managed IT infrastructure services on behalf of Partners, including BT Syntegra, EDS, IBM, LogicaCMG and Sun.

For further details, please contact the Phoenix Press Office
[e-mail]
tel: [phone]

or visit the Phoenix website at www.phoenix.co.uk

[ged5] 19/4/2005 11:22

The NEU2 represents a neutral stance in line with expectations. I suppose this will change one way or the other once we have the results.

[diogenesj] 18/4/2005 21:21

Clear enough, I think, Ged (except that I'm not quite clear about what NEU2 means - weak hold?). The brokers' recommendations seem to be at odds with their forecasts, and more downbeat than you would expect.

[ged5] 18/4/2005 18:25

That set of data didn't show up too well. I'll try to edit it tomorrow.
Edit Looks better now.
Well days like today are sent to us for buying aren't they? Anyway my impatience got the better of me so I decided to buy a few today. What's the point in hanging around with the price at this level. Can't see why £4.40-£5.00 should be out of the question. Will look to add as and when I have more funds available.

Did anyone attend the EGM?

[ged5] 18/4/2005 08:47

2005 2006Pre tax eps dps pre tax eps dpsUBS 30-03-05 NEU2 13.77 17.85 2.40 19.39 22.45 4.00 Shore Capital 08-04-05 HOLD 14.00 17.30 2.40 22.10 27.70 3.90 I'm looking to see how the market settles and will be looking for a buying opportunity. Wont be many I'm only a small investor but I like to get value for money. As you say it looks a buy.

[diogenesj] 17/4/2005 21:54

Odd that: if Shore Capital's forecast is correct, the shares at 300p are on a prospective PE of only 10.83x for the year just started (to March 2006). I'd have thought that made them a buy (ignoring the current state of the wider market).

The house broker UBS appears to have a lower forecast (22.5p against 27.7p). Still good value even if that turns out to be right. As you say, the high percentage of repeat business is a major attraction.

[ged5] 17/4/2005 19:38

Thank you. I noticed they tipped it as a buy then and as good value in December when it was £2.80. I've also found that Shore Capital have a hold recommendation at the moment yet they forecast quite an increase in eps in 2006.

Was interested to read PNX work with Logicacmg and that most of the work they get is long term contracts.

[diogenesj] 17/4/2005 13:47

The Investors Chronicle gave quite a good account of the company when they tipped it (at 252p) on 28 January:



Unfortunately, you need to be a subscriber to read it.

[ged5] 17/4/2005 08:57

This week I was looking for a company to put in my ISA and PNX came up on my search. I say my search, it was actually a broker's company research software with whom I have a nominee account. One of the factors was that it had to be in the smallcap index. Therefore it's definitely in the all-share index.

Holders will be pleased to know that PNX came up on 2 searches both as a growth stock and a momentum stock. Looks good so far pe less than 12, high eps growth, good cashflow/eps ratio and good return on capital.

Nice rise on Friday. To think I could have bought at £2.85. Unfortunately although I did my search this week I have only had a little time to do research which I've started this weekend. The website looks good and the business model is sound. Thought I'd visit here but there doesn't appear to be too much information. Will be looking for an entry point soon.

Has anybody got any brokers notes or additional information to the website, RNS AFX? Who is it best to contact at the company? Has anybody got a target price?

[doubleorquits] 16/4/2005 09:50

MoreEarl where did you get that info from? According to the FTSE site they are already in:

[moreearl] 20/3/2005 17:39

These are moving to the FTSE UK All-Share Index on Monday - I wonder if the recent pull-back was to satisfy prospective fund buying? Anyway, beginning to look like a buying opp...