Phoenix It Share Discussion Threads

[ged5] 07/9/2005 17:04

Not a lot happened here while I've been away. We could do with hearing some news to get us on the next march upwards. Thought we might have heard something about the BT renewal by now.

[ged5] 21/7/2005 15:39

At Phoenix IT Group's recent AGM, chairman Peter Bertram announced that the company had appointed Dennis Thomas as managing director for its NDR business continuity division. Phoenix acquired NDR in April 2005.

Dennis is one of the best known faces in the UK business continuity industry. Previously he held senior management roles at Synstar plc, Adam Associates (now Adam Continuity) and Comdisco.

Speaking about the NDR acquisition, Mr Bertram told the AGM that "in the short period since [the acquisition] NDR has performed in line with our expectations. We have been encouraged by the potential for the enlarged group to exploit the combined resources and technical skills of Phoenix and NDR, to offer additional value-added services to our customers."

[ged5] 20/7/2005 12:44

Quietly moving up. Forgot about the AGM yesterday. Pity cos I had the time to go.

Everything seems to be as expected.

Shore Capital reiterated their Hold recommendation on the 15/7/05. Left the eps and pre-tax the same but left the dps blank.

[ged5] 14/7/2005 10:23

Another couple of weeks yet but thanks. Thought I'd post the full table of forecasts now Investec have included theirs. News still seems hard to find. Still waiting on that contract news.2006 2007Pre tax eps dps pre tax eps dpsUBS 24-06-05 NEU1 19.39 22.45 4.00 21.67 25.09 4.40 Investec Securities 11-07-05 BUY 18.66 21.10 4.00 19.50 22.05 4.20 Shore Capital 31-05-05 HOLD 19.7 22.70 3.90 19.2 22.2 4.30

[diogenesj] 05/7/2005 15:18

Alas, Ged, there is no rest for the wicked, and a ramper's work is never done. Have a nice break anyway!

[ged5] 05/7/2005 14:33

Hi DJ, thought you'd gone for the summer. I will shortly.

Perhaps someone has heard something. As you say a nice move. Will keep a look out after the close.

[diogenesj] 05/7/2005 13:50

Lol - someone having a laugh. Nice move, though, and yet ADVFN is showing 24k sells to 6k buys. Suggests there is a larger order being filled in the background, and it may show up at the end of the day.

[ged5] 05/7/2005 13:43

What is going on here?

From 13:10 trades have been 86, 43, 21, 11, and 11.

Looks like some sort of mathematical series.

[ged5] 05/7/2005 13:34

Perhaps I should post more often. Something's happening.

[diogenesj] 13/6/2005 09:56

It does have quite a following, Ged.

[ged5] 13/6/2005 09:52

Looking back at the results there is growth forecast everywhere you look by the company. The only other reason for a reduced eps might be the number of share options expected during the next year.

Don't know if SCS is influential or not but there seems to be an increase in the amount of buying this am.

[diogenesj] 10/6/2005 13:18

Disappointing that, especially the forecast drop in profits and eps in 2007. I rather expected upgraded forecasts after those very good results and the very confident outlook statement. Perhaps, as you say, they are assuming non-renewal of the BT contract.

[ged5] 10/6/2005 12:03

On 31/5/05 Shore Capital reduced their forecasts. For 2006 pretax is forecast to be 19.7 and eps 22.7. Now in line with UBS.

I wonder if that is excluding the BT contract since it is up for renewal!

[ged5] 02/6/2005 15:11

Noticed in last week's IC that the contract with BT was due for imminent renewal. Shouldn't be too long a wait then.

[ged5] 24/5/2005 11:25

Just noticed UBS updated their recommendation last Friday. The figures for 2006 haven't changed but they've now got 2007 figures. Shore Capital still unchanged.2006 2007Pre tax eps dps pre tax eps dpsUBS 20-05-05 BUY2 19.39 22.45 4.00 21.67 25.09 4.40 Shore Capital 08-04-05 HOLD 22.10 27.70 3.90 25.30 32.20 4.30

[diogenesj] 20/5/2005 17:45

I think we're waiting for new forecasts after the results, Alf, and we don't know what they will be. However, the eps for the last year were comfortably ahead of forecast, so I expect UBS to raise theirs substantially.

An anxiety is that a key contract with BT (worth £12m a year) is up for renewal this year. (It is the Department of Work and Pensions contract mentioned in Ged5's link above.) Yesterday's article in the FT (also mentioned by Ged5 above) said: "Assuming the worst - that this revenue disappears - the shares are still trading at a well-supported multiple of 13 times earnings estimates for 2006. There is plenty of upside left here."

They are signing lots of other new contracts, and have a £125m order book, so there is considerably more earnings visibility than with most software companies. I'd say these shares are one of the better bets around. They are among the very few that I held onto when I sold almost everything else in March. But wtfdik? :-)

[alfwilson] 20/5/2005 16:51

DJ

I recently put PNX back on my watch list ... but given the house broker's (UBS) forecast eps ... I will need your encouragement to to keep them on my radar.

Roger and out,

Alf

[diogenesj] 20/5/2005 16:16

Thx, Ged. You too.

[ged5] 20/5/2005 16:12

Just good to find that the professionals back our investment decision. Reasonable amount of buying today. Have a good weekend.

[diogenesj] 20/5/2005 15:03

Excellent, thanks G.

[ged5] 20/5/2005 09:14

Noticed Morgan Stanley have joined the major shareholders.

Did anyone read yesterday's FT? A very good article which finished

"There is plenty of upside left here."

Note that Investec have started coverage

[ged5] 18/5/2005 20:29

And my final offering for today.

Buyers also warmed to Phoenix IT Group shares, 13¾p better at 274p after the IT support services group said it will pay a 2.4p final dividend, a maiden payout for Phoenix as a quoted company.

It made pretax profits of £11.1m in the full-year to 31 March 2005, up 8.1% from £9.3m a year earlier, while sales rose 51.5% to £88.3m. The contracted order book at the end of the financial year stood at £125m compared to £89m previously.

Chief executive Nick Robinson said: 'The new financial year has started well. The outlook for our business is very positive and we are confident of our ability to perform well again in the coming year.'



That's what we like to read.

[ged5] 18/5/2005 20:23

I notice the media have been focusing on the fully diluted earnings per share which I think gives a slightly misleading picture.
Bloombergs news headline was "phoenix profit drops with costs of listing.."
and Ceefax quote the 13.6 eps with exceptionals of 2.65m and pretax of 10.07.

As I say these are misleading and don't show the growth during the year. Will look forward to revised broker forecasts which will hopefully reflect the true picture.