Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[lauders] 16/6/2017 09:57

The presentation slides will be available on the Company's website www.thephoenixgroup.com at the same time as the presentation. A replay and transcript of the event will be available on the website after the event.

What has happened to the bold part?

[jonwig] 14/6/2017 11:47

The Investor Day presentation, today:

[lauders] 12/6/2017 12:09

TMF articles are not exactly the best to take seriously I agree. However they are out there and people do take notice of them. While all the details may not be factually correct, not good as you state Hyden when being paid to produce them, I don't dismiss them entirely either as they may provide guidance on sentiment or mention something I was not aware of before. Take the good with the bad and apply the filters. Long term I think they are correct about the patience and Gary seems to agree too. Appreciate your input too edmundshaw.

[edmundshaw] 11/6/2017 20:10

How management generate cash from the closed funds is actually quite interesting and varied. The last presentation gives a good view of it, but it is not just synergies and risk reduction (though those are important contributors). One way, for example, is to inform people how they can cash in investments where it is appropriate, so PHNX then do not have to hold so much cash/investments against future liabilities and can reduce the buffer (so cash is freed up for distribution).

[jonwig] 11/6/2017 18:23

Hyden - I never read the Fool articles, they've always been very shallow and - at best - written for beginners. The discussion boards were generally excellent, but have been discontinued because, I assume, they were unprofitable.

[hyden] 11/6/2017 18:03

A very poor article in my opinion Lauders, clearly written by someone who has no understanding of the business. PHNX absolutely does not 'decommission' closed life funds, it actively manages them for the benefit of policyholders and shareholders. Synergies come through economies of scale and a pooling of risks.

And it is the capital released (and anticipated to be released) from the recent acquisitions that have allowed for the one-off increase in dividends.

There's no excuse for sloppy journalism. If they get paid for it then at least they should put in the effort to research the stock and sector properly. I am glad I don't subscribe and I certainly have no intention of doing so with sloppy journalism such as that.

[garycook] 11/6/2017 04:07

Launder,s I have held PHNX,since Nov 2013.Purchased at 649.90p,and was lucky to purchase some more on the 28/03/2014 at 564.46p,because on that day PHNX dropped with other Life Insurers that day,the reason I cannot remember.Maybe Solvency ratios,not sure.Also I took up my rights in full at 5.08p.Now PHNX are a lot stronger and wealthier company at present due to recent acquistions.You have made a sound investment in PHNX,and locked in a yield of 6.63% at 757p, with the proposed 50.2p annual dividend.Try getting that return with other Life Insurers atm,besides HSD,but they are reducing there divided payment by half to yield 5% next year.This a a rock solid company with good management.That is why you decided to invest in it.Motley Fool are only good for information,and one man,s opinion.But not a fair summary by MF..I will talk with you again when PHNX reach £9.AIMHO

[lauders] 11/6/2017 02:24

RCT = Some people prefer others to manage their money and do not have the time to follow boards like us or don't have any interest. Guess they follow a name and let's face it Mark Slater is a big name in the financial world. Hence they trust his funds and will pay for it. Plenty do, so it would appear, so I doubt they are too worried about the charges.

One PHNX related link:

From the ashes

FTSE 250-listed Phoenix Group (LSE: PHNX) is a niche operator in the financial services industry, as the UK’s largest consolidator of closed life funds. That means it specialises in acquiring and managing closed life and pension funds and it’s a big business, with 6.1m policyholders and £76bn of assets. Recent acquisitions include big names such as Abbey Life, AXA Wealth and distribution business SunLife.

Phoenix makes its money from decommissioning closed life funds, including with-profits funds, which may sound like a dying business but closed funds will be an issue for decades to come, and policyholders need Phoenix to secure their interests, and their money.
Cash cow

Investors in Phoenix, which has a market cap of £2.95bn, have done well over five years, doubling their money. However, the last 12 months have been patchy, with the share price going nowhere. Yet at the same time the yield has surged to 6.22%. One reason is that Phoenix throws off growing sums of cash, generating £486m in 2016, double its 2015 total of £225m.

That allowed management to fund a 5% dividend hike for 2016, as its £373m acquisition of AXA Wealth’s pensions and protection business and £933m purchase of the Abbey Life business have generated synergies and boosted cashflow. The company’s strengthened Solvency II surplus, shareholder capital coverage ratio and rise in group operating profit from £324m t0 £351m in 2016 also impress.

Management has upgraded its long-term targets for cash generation from £2bn to £2.8bn for 2016-2020, which should improve its non-existent dividend cover, currently -0.7%. However, growth prospects look patchy with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be flat in 2017, then to fall 2% next year. A forecast valuation of 16.9 times earnings hardly excites, given these challenges. Phoenix will rise again, but you may have to be patient.

I can be patient with this one.

[rcturner2] 10/6/2017 11:45

I cannot believe that anyone would invest in that fund with these charges:

Charges
Initial: 5.25%
Annual Management Charge: 1.5%
(deducted from capital)
Ongoing Charges 1.55%

Unreal.

[garycook] 10/6/2017 04:30

Launders,Also holding ITV,along with CNA,GSK,LGEN,and RDSB..

[lauders] 10/6/2017 04:25

That all sounds good to be Gary! I am in no hurry and will enjoy the yield while I hold.

You are correct about it being MS's largest holding:

I also hold ITV from the top ten holdings.

[garycook] 10/6/2017 03:52

Lauders,From memory I believe that PHNX are Mark Slater,s top holding now.I also purchased some PHNX for my son,s ISA,a few weeks ago at 741p.and I strongly believe PHNX is a great core holding,and will eventually rise back to the £9 level,and later £10. AIMHO.

[lauders] 09/6/2017 12:09

After an initial dip it is good to see some strength here today.

[garycook] 08/6/2017 16:14

stun12,Park it in HSD 90p,for a 10% yield atm,But will be halved next year.Crystal Amber I have just noticed have taken a 3% holding of the CRS funds in HSD.Could be around a 25% growth has well to 120p Risk/Reward.Just a thought and only trying to help.DYOR

[stun12] 08/6/2017 10:37

Indeed, Lauders. I'm quite conflicted as to whether I want the share price to rise or not, as a substantial increase would suggest that I should take some profit whereas I'm really here for the yield. Then I would have to find somewhere else to park my SIPP funds.

[lauders] 08/6/2017 10:14

I now own some PHNX bought at 757p per share plus costs. We shall see what happens after the election results and whether it was a good decision or not. Long term I am not too worried and I bought for the dividend as one of my main reasons anyway.

[garycook] 05/6/2017 07:42

RCT2,Sounds good.I believe you have the correct focus atm,but nice to have some dry powder available,if there is a retrace.

[rcturner2] 05/6/2017 07:33

My SIPP is fully invested (small caps and PE funds mainly). My ISAs are 25% cash at the moment.

[garycook] 05/6/2017 07:27

RCT2,Agree with you,and I am over 90% invested.But did some top slicing profit taking last week.To have some money available for opportunies that may arise.

[rcturner2] 05/6/2017 07:22

My SIPP has already risen 20% in 2017 and my other holdings 10%. Now is not the time to be out of the market.

[fenners66] 04/6/2017 22:26

Tournesol


"Imho if Corbyn wins we'll see a very substantial reversal. His manifesto is a long list of explicit bribes designed to buy votes - single biggest item is free university education aimed at buying the student vote but there is a long long list of others. He wants to (re)nationalise rail,mail,water,energy and who knows what else. Costs of that are omitted from manifesto. Then wants to repeal employment laws and revert to unfettered trade unions - that's to thank Unite for their support. He will increase welfare state regardless of cost (e.g. pensions, other benefits). He wants to increase corporation tax from 18 to 27% He wants to introduce a tax on financial transactions which will drive those affected offshore. His approach to Brexit is incoherent and utterly supine. He will go into negotiations with "kick me" on his forehead and will emerge with empty hands. On a wider front his entire ministerial team will be third rate deadbeat apparatchiks and hangers on who are all struggling to hide their amazement at being picked. The answer is that all the smart/competent Labour people have dis-associated themselves from JC. We will suffer a cataclysmic economic collapse. It will set us back several generations."

Very well put.

A return to the 1970's strikes and more strikes and secondary picketting to restore power to his Union paymasters. Winter of discontent mk2, "Winter is coming" anyone?

The youth are said to be backing JC - that makes sense because they have never seen what a left wing Labour govt is capable of. I remember us going to the IMF cap in hand like Greece today and with £1.86 trillion of National Debt already this would be on the cards.

All it takes is a little loss of market confidence / US rate rise and we will be tripling the interest bill on that £1.86 soon to be a Labour £2.5 trillion debt - that would pretty much cost the Social Security bill every year to service!

[colonel a] 04/6/2017 13:41

I would rather be in the market too.
But I am largely not.
If, in a years time say, I have to look back at this time as a missed opportunity then so be it.
I guess its a bit like betting against your favourite team ...

[jonwig] 04/6/2017 12:41

Colonel, Gary - yes, of course politics is a big factor in investment decisions, especially these days, and I've no problem with discussing the kind of things you mention. PHNX is especially vulnerable to market moves because its assets are the markets (fixed and equity).

Look at the most important factor which could deflate the bubble: the Fed. My own view is that the Fed won't tighten aggressively any time soon, since the US isn't generating enough jobs to matter. Trump's budget is likely to go nowhere, and gov't gridlock is likely at the end of summer. I'd rather be in the market and collect my dividends, but keep enough cash in case I'm wrong.

Of course, there are dozens of other factors to consider, but you can get bogged down in details and miss the big picture.

[lauders] 04/6/2017 12:34

Colonel A - You may find this interesting then:

It’s not very often that a Nobel Prize-winning economist who is known for his bearish calls turns extremely bullish.

Last week, professor Robert Shiller of Yale, who called the housing collapse 10 years ago, proclaimed that stocks could rise another 50 percent in the next few years based upon his latest research. Meaning Dow 30,000!

Right or wrong? Who knows! Only time will tell.

[garycook] 04/6/2017 11:38

Colonel A,If you are thinking that way,then sell all your holdings.Just look at the bright side and be positive.If the Market does sell off for whatever reason,it will give you an opportunity to buy shares at lower prices,but it always corrects,and makes new highs.PHNX below or around £7 a bargain.PHNX longer term £9/10.IMHO DYOR