Phoenix Global Mining Share Discussion Threads

[le couteau tombant] 17/6/2008 12:56

Riggerpeautz, No idea whatever why this Japanese Palladium Options Position balloons so greatly next year February/April 2009, I assume, and I am guessing it is part of a known Japanese contract, but I am guessing I don't know.

[le couteau tombant] 17/6/2008 12:53

Specifications of Tata's Nano
10 Jan 2008, 1701 hrs IST,AFP

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NEW DELHI: Tata Motors Ltd on Thursday wheeled out the world's cheapest car, priced at 100,000 rupees (2,500 dollars).

Here are key facts about the four-door, mini hatchback named the Nano, which is due to hit the Indian market later this year.

Looks: The snub-nosed car keeps in the tradition of the Fiat 500, Nissan Micra and the Smart.

Dimensions: 3.1 metres (10.23 feet) long, 1.5 metres wide and 1.6 metres high. Can seat four to five people.

Engine: A two cylinder 623 cc, 33 horsepower rear mounted, all aluminium, multi-point fuel injection petrol engine can power the car to top speeds of 105 kilometres per hour (65 miles per hour).

Fuel Efficiency: 20 kilometres per litre, or 50 miles per gallon is claimed.

Pollution: Exceeds Indian regulatory requirements and can meet strict Euro IV emission standards. In terms of overall pollutants, Tata says the car is better than two-wheelers manufactured in India currently.

Safety: Car exceeds current regulatory requirements with a strong passenger compartment, crumple zones, intrusion resistant doors, seat belts, strong seats and anchorage.

Initial Annual Production Target: 250,000 units to rise later to 350,000. PRICE: Basic model price 100,000 rupees (2,500 dollars) plus tax and transport costs, which will bring on the road price to at least 120,000 rupees. The price of two deluxe models that will include air-conditioning and other features to be announced later.

Nearest Domestic Car Rival: Maruti 800, part of Japanese-owned Suzuki Maruti stable whose base model sells for about 4,800 dollars -- nearly double the price of the Nano.

Nearest International Rival: China's Chery QQ which retails for 3,600 dollars.

Sales: Tata will focus on selling the car in India for the next two to three years, before eyeing Latin American and Southeast Asian markets.

Market: India's car market is a huge draw because car penetration is just seven per 1,000 people, compared to 550 per 1,000 in such countries as Germany or 476 in France, according to the Society of Indian Automobiles.

Company Details: Tata Motors is India's largest vehicle company with revenues of 7.2 billion dollars in 2006-2007. It is the leader in commercial vehicles, such as trucks and buses, and the second largest in passenger vehicles. There are over four million Tata vehicles on Indian roads.

[riggerbeautz] 17/6/2008 12:52

Short Palladium ouch....offended. No certainly not! Believe in your story, just trying to learn more, will go away and read up, have been following for a while, but no pure fund plays found.

Please don't misinterpret my intentions, i ask in ignorance of facts and concerns of stories like posted. Your answers make sense. Also trying to work out what the Japanese know?

[le couteau tombant] 17/6/2008 12:47

India | products_services | 2008-01-13 | print |
Source: Newsweek

How Green is Tata's Nano?

Tata's Nano may put millions of new drivers on the roads. It also may herald a new source of pollution. The unveiling of Tata Motors' People's Car-perhaps the most anticipated vehicle in a decade-had the frenzied atmosphere of a blockbuster movie opening. For four years Tata kept every detail of the car's development top secret, and now a hundred or more photographers jostled to get the first shot. When chairman Ratan Tata, citing the first flight by the Wright brothers and the invention of the computer, pulled back the curtain on the newly named Nano, it turned out to be a four-seater, a bit more than three meters long, with a 642cc engine and made of plastic and glue instead of welded steel.

Despite speculation to the contrary, the car will retail for 100,000 rupees, or $2,500. ("A promise is a promise," Tata said.) At less than half what Maruti Suzuki, the current market leader in India, charges for its cheapest model, the Nano is priced to get urban Indians off their motor scooters and motorcycles and into a car. It is expected to inspire other manufacturers to develop cheap cars and force Maruti Suzuki and others to slash prices, bringing millions more new cars onto Indian roads over the next five years. But the prospect of a flood of new drivers in a nation of 1 billion people has inspired a backlash against the Nano from environmentalists, who fear it's a major new source of pollution.

The concern is that a supercheap auto will encourage development on the American model-relying on the car rather than mass transit. More drivers will add to air pollution, already a critical problem in more than half of India's cities, and to the carbon in the atmosphere that causes global warming. "This car promises to be an environmental disaster of substantial proportions," says Daniel Esty, an environmental expert at Yale.

Tata has worked hard to get out in front of its critics, at least on air pollution. The first models to roll off the company's assembly line in Singur, West Bengal, will get about 20 kilometers per liter of gasoline (50 miles per gallon) and meet stringent European emissions standards that have yet to be adopted in India. Tata insists that the Nano will pollute less than the two-wheelers it is intended to replace and get roughly the same gas mileage as the Maruti models. The Nano's catalytic converter appears to reduce most pollutants by about 80 percent-not as much as the 99 percent Western models do, but still a big reduction. Environmentalists, though, say that it will probably fail after a few years on the road. The reason: Indians typically don't keep their autos in tip-top shape. When the catalytic converter fails, emissions of pollutants could shoot up fivefold.

The story gets worse when you consider greenhouse gases like CO2, which escape catalytic converters. The more gas burned, the more CO2 released. The Nano is likely to replace motor scooters and motorbikes, which get about 54 kilometers to the liter, more than twice what the Nano gets, according to Daniel Sperling, director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis, who has studied the situation in Delhi. That means fuel consumption and carbon emissions will almost certainly rise. "Every new purchase of this vehicle is increasing fuel use [per passenger] by a factor of two to seven, depending on how many people are in the car," says Sperling. That doesn't even account for a decline in fuel efficiency if the cars are not maintained well.

Western environmentalists know they have little moral standing to criticize Indians for wanting cars, particularly one that meets the highest Western emissions standards. But they're rattled in part because they didn't see this coming, and will have to recalculate projections for the buildup of greenhouse gases based on a world of many more drivers. "In none of our reports did we assume there'd be a car like this," says Judy Greenwald, director of innovative solutions at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. "This is a new category. It will affect everybody's projections."



Source: Newsweek

[le couteau tombant] 17/6/2008 12:29

Riggerbeautz,

I have never bought the Palladium Stockpile issue post recent Palladium lows in 2003/5, this has been discussed since 1999 and the I think stockpile of Russian Palladium used in Nuclear Missiles, and as security on Russian Yeltsin Era Government borrowings, using I think Gokhran Palladium stockpile as security in Switzerland.

As far as I am aware this is an early 2000 era issue relating to Yeltsin Era USSR Debt pre October 1998, and Palladium used as security on that Debt.

Obviously now post Oil and Commodities Boom Russia is in a major Balance of Payments Surplus.

There are many vested interests in Platinum and Rhodium that would want to talk Palladium down, but the reality is, the efficacy of the various PGMs and the Price by Volume and Weight Differentials make Palladium a very attractive option, the price arbitrage is preposterous, when all three major PGMs rely heavily on Autocatalyst and Catalyst demand, and metal substitution on price differentials is a given.

I agree US Car sales will faulter, indeed they already have, but please note Toyota is now the key player in US Motor not GM nor FORD, anyway as far as I understand it US Motor Manufacturers moved to Platinum/Rhodium after Ford Squeeze into January 2001 Palladium US$1,100 per toz to a large extent.

It stands to reason, that it was this stockpile being sold that caused Palladium to decline January 2001 into the lows of June 2003 and June 2005.

It also stands to reason that this overhang has now been cleared, as has any overhang from Norilsk Nickel MSE:NKEL purchase of majority holding in Stillwater Mining Company NYSE:SWC.

For example I note North American Palladium Limited TSE:PDL AMEX:PAL claim to be no longer hedged, so presumably 5 year forwards contracts have ended, their Palladium must therefore being sold globally at spot price.

Obviously you are short Palladium, fair enough, short interest getting stopped out ie people covering puts is what fuels bull markets!

But please don't rely on Yesterday's News to drive the Price of Palladium, Indian and Chinese Automotive demand will, and India plus China alone is a potential market of 3,200,000,000 people, not 300,000,000 in USA!

For example only a fool would expect Platinum or Rhodium to be used in any Catalytic converter in a TATA Nano costing US$2,500 to buy!

[riggerbeautz] 17/6/2008 11:29

Hi, can i join in with my limited knowledge on this please. Post on GEI but never had my questions answered so i'll ask you two experts.

Two concerns. If there is a massive downturn in the american car market, will this not outweigh demand elsewhere?

Wonder what you guys think to this, it may have been covered in your posts?

"Don't go near palladium for the time being; you could get burned because it may only be hot due to the friction caused the shovels being used to empty vaults in Montana, Novosibirsk, Zurich, Geneva and some beautiful German Cities".



Liked the look of this sector, but struggling to know where to start with exposure. Any funds you track?

Sorry if i'm a bit newbie on this, but like the thread and skim read a bit so will do in more detail later.

[le couteau tombant] 17/6/2008 10:30

Tim,

There is an Interesting Discussion on Kitco pretty much saying the same thing, ie Palladium looks the medium to long term play, I will paste 2007 or forecast 2008 Usage data from JMAT when I find.

https://www.kitcomm.com/archive/index.php?t-12878.html

Have you any idea why there is such a large volume spike in Tokyo Commodity Exchange February 2009 and April 2009 contracts?



What do the Japanese know we don't?

[tim] 17/6/2008 10:16

LCT

Looking good , early days as well. I am trying to get some Canadian Maple leafs or stillwater coins. Seem like they are going like hot cakes too and at a fair premium.

[le couteau tombant] 17/6/2008 10:13

Tim,

This is interesting, two things that could make a significant difference to PGM Demand in China for Catalysts and Emmisions/Pollution Control.

1)Clearly Chinese Public are getting far more Environmentally aware!

2)The sheer scale of the Petrochemical and Refinery Build Programme in China, a contract here worth US$5.50 billion with a US$565m Environmental spend.

All of these Refineries and most specifically Petrochemical Plants need PGMs in Catalysts.

We look at Auto Catalysts and Jewellry, but Industrial Usage is still significant and growing.

[le couteau tombant] 17/6/2008 10:02

Tim not quite outperforming oil, but a pretty reasonable return in 2008 nevertheless!



PAU8 - PALLADIUM September 2008 (NYMEX) [Realtime Prices]
[ Daily Quotes ] [ Weekly Quotes ] [ Monthly Quotes ]

Trade Like a Pro--Explore Technical Analysis. FREE Lind-Waldock Guide.
Date Open High Low Last Change
06/17/08 467.00 470.00 460.85 467.50 +3.05
06/16/08 454.25 466.95 450.00 464.45 +10.00
06/13/08 441.00 457.65 436.10 454.45 +12.80
06/12/08 431.25 445.90 426.50 441.65 +8.65
06/11/08 425.25 434.55 424.00 433.00 +4.75


-- Period -- -- High -- -- Low -- -- Percent Change --
5-Days 470.00 on 06/17/08 424.00 on 06/11/08 +7.97% since 06/11/08
20-Days 470.00 on 06/17/08 417.50 on 06/05/08 +0.07% since 05/21/08
65-Days 479.15 on 04/11/08 403.00 on 05/01/08 +0.23% since 03/19/08
100-Days 593.70 on 02/28/08 395.00 on 01/30/08 +17.62% since 01/30/08
260-Days 593.70 on 02/28/08 342.25 on 08/22/07 +18.96% since 07/19/07
Year to Date 593.70 on 02/28/08 370.85 on 01/22/08 +20.13% since 01/02/08



For The Last Made New High Percent From Made New Low Percent From
5-Days 5 time(s) -0.53% 1 time(s) +10.26%
20-Days 2 time(s) -0.53% 6 time(s) +11.98%
65-Days 5 time(s) -2.43% 7 time(s) +16.00%
100-Days 13 time(s) -21.26% 1 time(s) +18.35%
260-Days 18 time(s) -21.26% 13 time(s) +36.60%
Year to Date 18 time(s) -21.26% 7 time(s) +26.06%

[le couteau tombant] 17/6/2008 09:49

Tim, Cash Palladium Market starting to move up rapidly now at roughly 161.11% of the percentage rate as Gold and 887.55% of the Rate of Platinum.

I am still wandering how much Palladium needs to catch up with the other Autocatalyst PGM Rhodium sitting loftily at US$9730?

[le couteau tombant] 17/6/2008 09:21

Palladium has already broken yesterday's US$466.95 High in September Futures contract PAU8 last time I looked US$469.00, looks like plain sailing today to US$477.50 ish

Above the US$480 ish level several large gaps above to fill so presumably where big daily moves will start to occur.

US$479.50 ish to US$491 ish, US$496 and US$510 ish, US$522 to US$532 ish


Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

464.45 443.52 460.47 477.42

[tim] 17/6/2008 09:20

LCT

Yes you are right! But share price still adrift. I guess the sharp pullback in PD prices did for that. However it looks like a leverage of around 2 ie PD went up 50% share price in each case doubled. We need to look for a disconect between the metal and the share price

[tim] 17/6/2008 08:28

LCT

MY experience over the last few years has been that in most cases you a have been much better off playing the physical. I know that flies in the face of reason, but wether its been oil, gold silver or base metals or even PGMs, the physical has been much the better route - with the very odd exception.

Apart from obvious hedgefund naked aggressive short selling and the problem of politics with PMs, I think the issue is drying up of liquidity in the market for miners in the credit crunch period, plus of course costs associated with mining growing as fast as the commodity.

Oh if only I had bought oil and silver and plat and held them!!!!!!

THis time I have PD the metal and am stickimng with it.

[le couteau tombant] 17/6/2008 01:19

Tim,

Palladium in Cash up US$12, Platinum up US$16, it looks like the Percentage Return is going to be in Palladium.

Now realistically the differential returns should go Parabolic.

When one looks at US$16 on US$2031 that is 0.79% ROCE, but US$12 on US$445 is a much better daily return of 2.68% ROCE!

The Moral of the Story is Traders buy Relative Strength, and it looks like Palladium is running at 340.81% of the Daily Percentage Price Growth Platinum is now.

Once The Resistance above goes, we are now pretty certain of a major bull run in Palladium.

The additional move here we need to look at is which Palladium Equity is going to Break Seriously, I am currently looking at producers, ie Dollars now!

Mining Investors need another Commodity Bull in addition to Coal and Phosphates, the next Six Month Mover plus.

Could A Palladium Producer provide the Area to play?

Realistically something that really moves when it moves!

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 19:49

Tim,

The real issue is the Utilisation is the same ie demand is primarily based on Catalytic and Jewellry Usage.

As I pointed out earlier the key issue is this economics:-

The Specific Gravity at Room Temperature of Platinum 21.45 g per cm3, Palladium 12.023 g per cm3 ie Platinum is 178.40% of the Density of Palladium.

By Weight Platinum US$2,049 per toz (US$65.88 per gramme)Palladium US$457 per toz (US$14.69 per gramme), ie 448.36% of the price.

The Rhodium Price also used largely in Auocatalysts is US$9730 pe toz today, ie 21.29 times (2,129.10%) of the Palladium Price!

Hence you can make 178.40% of 448.35% of the amount of Palladium Salts as opposed to Platinum Salts for Catalytic Converters for your US Dollar ie 800.00% (8 times the amount for your money, Dollar, Euro, Pound, Renimbi, Rupee etc).

Obviously Palladium/Platinum Arbitrage is far, far, far too wide currently, and the Balance must readdress, ie Palladium needs to go back to at least US$1100 per toz as India and China by definition have millions of cars to make, with an average unskilled labour wage of US$100 to US$200 per calendar month.

Never mind the Rarity of Palladium, PGMs are allegedly circa 34 times rarer than Gold in the Earth's crust (Irridium is the Rarest from memory) there is no logical reason for Palladium to be trading at half the Gold Price, especially as it is effectively consumed by being turned into salts in Auto Catalysts, the situation is daft for a metal with such robust Industrial usages!

How else could a member of the Chinese or Indian Public manage to purchase a car or a motor manufacturer make a car for the mass markets of Asia?

[tim] 16/6/2008 19:28

LCT

Interesting. I think looking at PDL's presentation that there has been a significant surplus which goes to balance in 2008 and then as you say a significant increasing deficit going into 2012.

This surplus has been in operation since 2002 all the way to current, sometimes as much as 2moz in 8moz so a significant amount. Perhaps the market is contuneing to look in the rear view mirror, or does not believe the PDL forecasts. Given that atleast half of the demand is in teh automotive sector and both demand and supply of said automotive items has risen dramatically in the last few years in asia in particular, PDL may even be conservative in their estimates.

If there is any substitution then these figures could be well well out. I imagine PD price action will give us a clue.

This from Stillwater site - but I have just noticed the date -2004

Regarding palladium markets, Johnson Matthey, in their 2004 Annual Platinum Review, offer this assessment:

For palladium, however, it was (and is) harder [than platinum] to make a bullish case for investment based on the metal's fundamentals. The market has been in a position of oversupply since 2001. Supply will continue to grow strongly from the expansion of pgm mining in South Africa and from increased recycling of autocatalysts and electronic waste. Even with the most optimistic projections for autocatalyst, electronic and dental demand, the palladium market appears set to remain in substantial surplus. Nevertheless, as the price of platinum climbed in 2003, fund managers increasingly inferred that the differential between it and the price of palladium would become unsustainably large. With the risk of a downward correction in the platinum price considered small, due to the metal's strong fundamentals, the conclusion was that the price of palladium would almost certainly have to rise.

In addition, the platinum and palladium markets are very small compared with other commodities, and are minute compared with equity, fixed income or foreign exchange markets. Consequently, significant activity by hedge funds can move the price in either direction regardless of the fundamentals. Furthermore, price trends can rapidly become self-sustaining as funds that trade on momentum or technical indicators are drawn into the market.

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 18:24

Tim,

It does not appear Stillwater Mining Company NYSE:SWC Presentation has forecasts but has usage and demand/supply data.

I think SWC are USA's sole Palladium Producer.



Not entirely sure why these Palladium Equities not up significantly after a move from US$417.50 to US$466.95 in September Future ie US$46.95 or 11.84% over last 8 days.

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 18:06

Tim,

Interesting, North American Palladium Limited TSE:PDL AMEX PAL estimating a pretty serious rise over next few years and Pd Supply Deficit.



I think PDL are Canada's sole Palladium Producer.

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 14:14

PLATINUM GROUP METALS
PGM PRICE RELATIONSHIPS
How far can palladium substitute for platinum
With the big and rapid increase in platinum prices over the past month, an analyst's thoughts turn to substitution, and here some of the likelihoods of increased palladium for platinum substitution in the catalyst and jewellery sectors are examined.

Author: Rhona O'Connell
Posted: Wednesday , 13 Feb 2008

LONDON -

After the dramatic spikes in the precious metals sector in 1979 and 1980, it took six years for gold jewellery demand to return to 1978 levels, and silver took considerably longer, with industrial demand (including jewellery) not regaining 1978 levels until 1990, a full decade after the price hike that carried gold to $850 and silver to $50. What is thus the prognosis for platinum this time around?

The frenetic activity in the platinum market with prices continuing to register new records means that, despite the fact that palladium is being pulled along in platinum's wake; the price differential between the two has now exceeded $1,500. Put another way, platinum is now almost 4.5 times as expensive as palladium and the word "substitution" is on many lips. The obvious areas for substitution are the jewellery sector, and emission control catalysts. Both of these sectors have been looking at the interplay between the two metals for a number of years and in the automotive sector in particular engineers are constantly looking for ways to maximise catalyst efficiency while minimising costs.

Back in 2000 and 2001 palladium rocketed to more than $1,000 an ounce when automotive manufacturers in North America were panicking over a potential shortage of metal. Palladium reached a maximum premium over platinum of $475 on 26th January. Over the preceding year platinum prices rose by 34% while those of palladium by 124%.

The result was renewed efforts to shift back towards platinum in the automotive sector, although the pattern was different with respect to jewellery, where outright prices were playing more of a role than the proportional difference between the two. GFMS Ltd reports that industrial demand for palladium in 2000 was 9.6 million ounces (298 tonnes), with emission control catalysts accounting for 6.0 million ounces or 63% of total. Note that GFMS records "consumption" whereas the Johnson Matthey figures refer to sales into the industry and so the parameters are slightly different, with inventory shifts marking the major difference between the two sets of figures.

Palladium demand since then has dropped to approximately eight million ounces per annum, with offtake in emission control catalysts falling to 4.1 million ounces in 2005 before starting to increase once more. The drop in palladium usage in emission control catalysts between 2000 and 2005 was thus 31% or an annual average of almost 8% per annum. This is despite the fact that the number of vehicles fitted with emission control catalysts increased by 14% overall, or an average of 2.6% per annum over the period.

Platinum demand in emission control catalyst over the same period rose from 2.2 million ounces to almost four million ounces and has continued to expand since. This is not only a function of platinum re-substituting in part for palladium, but also due to the fact that diesel vehicles have been taking an increasing proportion of the global fleet and, until recently, emission control for diesel-powered vehicles was the exclusive domain of platinum. In 2000, diesel accounted for only 18% of global production of light vehicles, and for 19% of catalyst-bearing vehicles. By 2007, diesel accounted for 24% of total and 25% of catalyst-bearing vehicles.

The geographic split of this is also interesting with Europe well and truly in the vanguard with respect to diesel vehicles. In 2000, diesel accounted for 37% of light vehicle production, but in 2007 it absorbed approximately 51% of total. The headway in the gasoline sector in China means that diesel share has actually dropped over the period, from 21% to 16%. In Japan the share is less than 10% while in North America it is less than 5% - although this us up from less than 2% in 2000.

The balance between palladium and platinum usage in diesel is changing, with advances in fuel technology now meaning that palladium can substitute for platinum (up to about 25% of total) in catalysts for diesel-powered engines, and the recent relative price performance for the two metals is virtually guaranteed to ensure that this work will continue. Furthermore the massive increases in gasoline prices has, as well as resulting in consumers looking in part, for smaller vehicles than hitherto when changing their cars, meant that diesel is now taking more of a foothold in north America than previously and the 5% figure noted above can be expected to increase.

All of this points to a resurgence in palladium demand at the expense of platinum. Although we have noted that this trend is already underway, however, it is important not to get too carried away by the speed with which this substitution will have an impact on the market. New designs for emission control catalysts frequently require new engine calibration and certification and this can take months. There was already likely to be a notable increase in palladium usage in diesel emission control catalysts; this is likely to be extended in 2009 as a result of price shifts.

The jewellery sector is more rapidly responsive to price exchanges although as noted above this tends to be more a function of outright prices rather than relative performance. Absolute high prices across the precious metals spectrum are likely to impinge on jewellery demand in all metals this year, and the platinum price romping towards $2,000 is likely to have a substantial effect on platinum jewellery demand. Palladium is likely to take an increased market share at platinum's expense, but the market itself is likely to be smaller as a result of consumer resistance. The one area that is likely to remain resilient is the market for wedding bands, especially in Asia.

Platinum jewellery demand reached a peak in 2002, driven by burgeoning interest in China and reaching almost three million ounces or 39% of total industrial demand of 2.8 million ounces. Palladium demand in the jewellery sector stood at that point at 337,000 ounces. Platinum demand has tapered off since, dropping below 1.8 million ounces while palladium offtake has increased towards one million ounces. Platinum jewellery usage has therefore declined by roughly one million ounces per annum while that of palladium has increased by more than 600,000 ounces. Palladium pieces are typically lighter than those of platinum, so palladium's encroachment in terms of the number of pieces is likely to be higher than these bald tonnage figures would suggest. Global jewellery platinum demand is currently equivalent to roughly 22% of platinum demand and 12% of palladium demand.

With South African platinum supplies likely to be restricted by anything up to 300,000 ounces this year, (dependent upon the analysis that one chooses to read) as a result of the power supply problems, then all other things being equal, i.e. if jewellery demand were the only variable in the equation, it would have to contract by almost 20% in 2008 in order to offset the reduction in primary supply of refined metal. Furthermore ETF demand is likely to remain strong. Demand so far this year in the London-based platinum ETF has been 123,000 ounces, taking holdings up by 88% over the past six weeks. This is hardly likely to be sustained throughout the year as a whole, but it already points to sustained tightness in the platinum market.

While it is too early yet to quantify the absolute shifts within the platinum and palladium markets this year, we can be reasonably sure that platinum prices will remain high and that jewellery demand will suffer. The cautionary note, of course, is that when the market rids itself of this tightness then there is scope for plenty of profit taking and this, on the back of a weakened jewellery market, is likely to lead to falls every bit as rapid as their recent rise.

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 13:21

I don't think the Alleged Swiss Bank Stockpile still exists from Gokhran, nor much with Norilsk Nickel MSE:GMKN which used Physical to acquire Stillwater Mining Inc NYSE:SWC Equity Position, I think it was all cleared some time ago.

It really is going to largely rest on Asian Autocatalyst and Jewellry Demand, also increases across World in Catalyst Demand as Oil/Gas and Petrochemical Industry ramp up Refining and Petrochemical Supply.

All this is going to need PGMs.

If they rework flowsheets/Proccess sheets on cost of a new refinery or petrochemical plant for catalysts the amount of Palladium used is likely to go up.

The Rhodium abnd Palladium Arbitrage is frankly ludicrous US$453.00 in Cash Pd versus US$9530 in Rh.

This just shows you how much PGMs can move.

I can easily see Japanese or Asian Speculators buying Physical as they did in Platinum in 2000 from memory, knowing it will be required for Automotive and Jewellry Demand at far higher prices.

[tim] 16/6/2008 13:06

I think for years the PD price has been held back by this notional idea put about that PD is in surplus. But for a precious metal there is no such thing as a surplus really, only a price. I wonder if there is a lot of short interest in PD ?

As far as jewelery goes all it needs in Asaia is aclever marketing strategy to convince newly wealthy Asians and aspiring wealthy Asians that PD is the "new" thing if you are successful. Given its more precious than gold this should be asy. Sounds like thery are working on this.

Keep up the good work Ash, something is afoot. So much for Rhona's "excitement tailing off" and prices coming down to 430 etc. Makes me wonder if they are a bit nervous and want to hide something.

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 12:48

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

454.45 427.85 449.40 470.95