Phoenix Global Mining Share Discussion Threads

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 12:44

PAU8 - PALLADIUM September 2008 (NYMEX) [Realtime Prices]
[ Daily Quotes ] [ Weekly Quotes ] [ Monthly Quotes ]

Trade commodities at Lind-Waldock and save $$.
Date Open High Low Last Change
06/16/08 454.25 464.20 450.00 464.00 +9.55
06/13/08 441.00 457.65 436.10 454.45 +12.80
06/12/08 431.25 445.90 426.50 441.65 +8.65
06/11/08 425.25 434.55 424.00 433.00 +4.75
06/10/08 429.60 431.25 425.00 428.25 -1.35


-- Period -- -- High -- -- Low -- -- Percent Change --
5-Days 464.20 on 06/16/08 424.00 on 06/11/08 +8.35% since 06/10/08
20-Days 467.15 on 05/21/08 417.50 on 06/05/08 +2.16% since 05/20/08
65-Days 492.00 on 03/18/08 403.00 on 05/01/08 -5.69% since 03/18/08
100-Days 593.70 on 02/28/08 395.00 on 01/30/08 +16.06% since 01/29/08
260-Days 593.70 on 02/28/08 342.25 on 08/22/07 +18.07% since 07/19/07
Year to Date 593.70 on 02/28/08 370.85 on 01/22/08 +19.23% since 01/02/08



For The Last Made New High Percent From Made New Low Percent From
5-Days 5 time(s) -0.04% 2 time(s) +9.43%
20-Days 2 time(s) -0.67% 6 time(s) +11.14%
65-Days 1 time(s) -5.69% 8 time(s) +15.14%
100-Days 13 time(s) -21.85% 2 time(s) +17.47%
260-Days 18 time(s) -21.85% 13 time(s) +35.57%
Year to Date 18 time(s) -21.85% 7 time(s) +25.12%

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 12:39

CBOT Data shows significant COT Percentage Move to Longs in Palladium from Platinum into 10th June 2008

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 12:31

Palladium starting to really move again now, outshining other metals by percentage gains daily.

US$458.00 in September 2008 Future PAU8 Hit US$459.95 earlier.

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 10:36

Here's some more links from Stillwater Mining Inc NYSE:SWC Site





Allegedly Jewellry demand was 1m toz pa, interestingly 75% of People enquiring into Platinum Jewellry can not afford it, so realistically the Palladium Jewellry market should grow strongly.

They are also predicting 10m automotive units pa by 2010 in China.

So some numbers to work on.

No mention of Palladium Jewellry usage or demand in India yet.

I would have thought this could become a large market.

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 10:20

Tim,

Allegedly Palladium Usage in Jewellry is already growing at compound 29% per annum.

Obviously I expect Asian Automotive demand to be far higher than this.

Both will probably take off simultaneously, especially as Oil Price comes down.


PLATINUM GROUP METALS
NEW BRAND DEVELOPMENT
Norilsk-led palladium alliance to push jewellery usage
Palladium's lower unit price means that it continues to eat into platinum's market share in the jewellery industry. The industry overall continues to show a very healthy rate of growth, however.

Author: Rhona O'Connell
Posted: Friday , 07 Mar 2008

LONDON -

Norilsk Nickel has announced that, following a comprehensive study involving independent consultants and the Palladium Alliance International, under the auspices of the International Platinum Group Metals Association, a decision has been taken to plan and implement a market development programme for palladium jewellery. The initiative will initially focus on China and the United States of America. Norilsk Nickel, the largest producer of palladium, will lead, supported by the major palladium producers in South Africa (Anglo Platinum, Impala Platinum, and Lonmin) and the United States of America (Stillwater Mining Company).

The purpose is to develop a new individual brand identity for palladium jewellery, as the major platinum group metal producers believe that this is an important strategic development for the industry, by both cementing the market position of platinum jewellery and "significantly enhancing the value of palladium as a jewellery metal in its own right".

Norilsk stated that the objective is to "establish successfully a clear and specific brand position for palladium in jewellery, which, in partnership with the jewellery designers, manufacturers and retailers, will achieve a sustainable market with growth opportunities for palladium metal offtake. This follows on from the platinum jewellery development programme supported by the South African platinum producers since 1975. The platinum programme is led by Anglo Platinum and it will continue. Norilsk Nickel and Stillwater Mining Company will be supporting the platinum programme".

Thus both platinum and palladium jewellery market development will in future be funded by the same group, but will be managed by separate organisations.

Stillwater Mining has been spearheading a palladium jewellery programme in China for some time now and the metal has been making significant headway in this sector, not only in China but also now in Italy and to an extent in North America. This year looks like being a particularly opportune time to press this home given the recent performance of the two metals' prices. Palladium's recent burst of activity saw prices run from $390 at the end of January to a pm fix of $535 on March 6th, a gain of 38%, with much of the drive coming from investors looking to reap the rewards of the prospects for palladium to substitute in part for platinum in industrial and jewellery applications following the increasing tightness in platinum and the associated price rises, as discussed elsewhere on this site. Platinum, meanwhile, ran from $1,731 to $2,230 over the same period, thus gaining 29% and to fix at a premium of $1,695.

Platinum's premium over palladium averaged $948 or a factor of 3.7 during 2007. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that palladium is gaining market share in the jewellery sector (as well as in emission control catalysts, which operate under different sets of parameters and are not under consideration in this discussion). Palladium is not only a cheaper metal, but generally speaking the weight of palladium in jewellery pieces is lower than that in platinum pieces, further adding to its attraction to purchasers on comparatively limited budget (and in China at least, fabricators' premia have for some time been much lower in platinum than in the palladium sector). The exception here is wedding bands, where preference takes precedence over price and platinum retains its supremacy.

The jewellery market used to be the mainstay of the platinum market; in the mid 1990s platinum jewellery demand was between 1.6 million and 1.7 million ounces per annum, equivalent to between 39% and 40% of total, and running more or less neck-and-neck with emission control catalysts. Now the automotive sector has the lion's share of demand, with more than four million ounces per annum of demand while jewellery demand, which has been declining since 2002, is heading towards roughly 1½ million ounces per annum. The decline has to a large extent been price-driven, with palladium absorbing part of platinum's erstwhile market share.

In 2002, the amount of palladium going into the jewellery sector was approximately 276,000 ounces; the sector now accounts for round about a million ounces, an annual average growth rate of 29% per annum, while platinum has been declining at a rate of roughly 13% per annum.

Looked at another way, however, the platinum picture is not as poor as it might at first glance appear. and taking the very loose parameters of annual tonnage multiplied by annual average price, the value of the platinum absorbed into the jewellery sector in 2002 was in the region of $542 million and in 2007 was approximately $2 billion, an increase of over 3 ½ times. Note here that this is merely an approximation of the value of the metal consumed in jewellery during the years in question. It does not reflect expenditure in the sector, which would involve fabrication charges, distribution, retail taxes etc.

The average platinum price in January and February of this year was approximately $1,788/ounce and if the price were to average this level for the full year (which it won't) and the value of metal in jewellery remained the same at is 2007, then offtake would drop to 1.1 million ounces this year. This is a hugely simplistic observation and the result will not fall out like this, but it serves to give a sense of perceptive.

The value of the palladium that went into jewellery in 2002 was applicably $93 million, 17% of the amount that went into the platinum jewellery sector. In 2007 it was approximately $314 million, or just less than 16% of that absorbed into platinum. The growth in value of metal absorbed between 2002 and 2007 thus works out at roughly 28% per annum. The combined totals were therefore $635 million in 2002 and roughly $2.3 billion in 2007, giving a combined increase of 29% per annum.

The bald tonnage figures look, at first glance, to be disappointing for platinum ,but in dollar terms they are encouraging. Palladium can be proud of its exploits to date and with a fresh marketing push on the horizon then prospects may be more encouraging still.

Note that the tonnage figures used for 2007 in this article are rough approximations; authoritative industry figures will be released in the coming weeks

[le couteau tombant] 16/6/2008 00:53

Tim,

Globally the Automotive Sector will reallocate Pt, Rh, and Pd Weightings in the World Today, like USA did 1998 to 2001.

Price Point is once again key, though not necessarilly for same reasons as Bull run of 1998 to January 2001, although Palladium takes off in TMT Moves, and seriously think Alternative Energy a big Kicker now as we approach Global Emmissions Legislation Deadlines, especially across USA by end 2010 .

The big kicker here is most Westerners fail to Comprehend how fast things happen in Asia nor how much of an Economic Middle Class,and Upper even Billionaire class of Entrepreneurs, is being created indeed has been created already in key Asian Markets, nor how much money they have to invest.

It makes no difference whether UK or US Investors buy the Palladium Investor Story Asia will drive it anyway including massively on the Ball Western Located Asian Wall of Cash both in Asia and Europe/North America.

Middle East will also be looking for new homes for Petro Dollars especially now.

Things moves massively in Asia in an Eighteen Month Period.

To be fair Six Months is a Long Time in Asia.

Palladium is already starting stage 2 of a big move.

Don't think this is a Gold Bore of July 1999 to March 2008 likelyhood.

This is far more likely to be a very, very Dynamic, ie an Exponential Bell Curve like Rhodium or other PGMS Move, this will no doubt move very fast Palladium always does in Bulls easily 300% in 18 Months.

The Palladium Producer Equities will suddenly also start to accelerate very fast as equity players look for next bull move, look at coal sector in six months?

Logically, not only very cheap with big percentage upside, limited source of supply, but realistically multiple Demand Kickers hitting the market at a time when there is seriously big money to invest sitting waiting on the sidelines?.

Look how fast AMEX:PAL and NYSE:SWC moved last couple of times they really moved!

China is on Stage October 2008, never underestimate China Impact short term!

We have only realistically so far covered India and Tata Nano!

The Underliers here are Multiples of US Palladium Demand into US$1100 in January 2001!

Russia can't Solve Problem Norilsk is an Ex Stalinist Gulag, I very much doubt that Production of Palladium will but reduce after 50 years of mining!

[tim] 16/6/2008 00:18

LCT

I notice she makes no mention of new automotive demand in Asia, looking in the rear view mirrror as usual? What about PD for PT in Asian cats?

The article I read seemed to suggest that the Nano used both PT and PD, but if they are looking at the number of bolts to reduce costs I imagine substitution must be in their minds given its a 1/4 of teh price. There must be subtle chemisty issues here, but it must be a goal eventually.

[le couteau tombant] 15/6/2008 23:42

Tim,

It looks like whatever happens, a serious amount of cars are going to be produced in India, which means a serious amount of PGMs I would think in Autocatalysts.

Something no doubt similar in China, and an Asian Wide Reach, that is a lot of people, a lot of cars a lot of PGM ounces and rapidly.

As there is no conceivable way the price makes sense without Palladium usage, and everybody knows USA bought loads when Palladium Prices were low, moving to Palladium from Platinum early New Millenia 2000/2001, it looks pretty certain to me Palladium Demand is going to Soar and Rapidly.

Other Motor Manufacturers lining up to get into Indian Motor Market, so realistically demand looks set to rapidly accelerate.

In any boom, I would prefer to sell the shovvels, Levi-Strauss Jeans etc than look for new supplies of Palladium, but once you have the supply, at the right time, with the right delivery logistics the moves can be enormous, especially with so much money looking to redeploy simultaneously.

Now Saudi's Pumping more Oil and Oil looks like a consolidation, with a lot of Oil Commodity Profits and Oil Equity Profits looking for a new home, I think this Palladium Bull could well be fast and furious as funds reinvest in the next hot sector five year bull.

So many looking for a new commodity story that has not happenned yet, and all eyes on Asia!

Videos worth a watch the product will sell undoubdtely!



Exclusive look at the Tata Nano

By Chris Morris
BBC News, Pune




Secrets of building the world's cheapest car

India is fast becoming the centre of a revolution in motoring.

A new generation of ultra-cheap cars is about to hit the streets, allowing millions of would-be drivers to dream of personal mobility for themselves and their families.

"A totally new market is opening up - the way we are receiving comments and inquiries is quite mind-boggling," said Ravi Kant, the managing director of Tata Motors.

International car manufacturers are also scrambling to establish a firm foothold in India, which is set to become the fastest growing car market in the world.

The Tata Nano was unveiled with great patriotic fanfare in January. Its basic price - about $2,500 - is about half of its nearest current rival.

The BBC travelled to the huge Tata Motors complex in the western city of Pune to get an exclusive look at the Nano in action, and to talk to the team which created the ultimate no-frills car, cutting costs part by part.

Everything from the number of wheel nuts to the number of parts in the door handle was re-examined.

"The body was redesigned three or four times, and the engine three times," said Girish Arun Wagh, the head of Tata's small car project. "Simplicity was the key."

And that means that when the Nano goes on sale towards the end of this year it will be in a position to overturn the economics of motoring.

"We believe that more than goods transportation it is people transportation that is going to see a massive change, and we are prepared to tap into this opportunity, " said Ravi Kant.

But Tata won't have it all its own way.

Rival car

Another Indian company Bajaj Auto, which makes auto-rickshaws and motorbikes, has announced plans - in partnership with Renault and Nissan - to produce a direct competitor to the Nano by 2011. The starting price will be the same.



Chairman of Tata rival Bajaj Auto on the Nano
"Whoever wants to do it at least has to manufacture it in India," said Rahul Bajaj, the company's chairman.

"If Tata motors can make money I can make money. My costs are lower than Tata Motors. But if General Motors or Volkswagen tries, I don't think they can make money."

But even if they won't compete at the very cheapest end of the market, that hasn't stopped a host of global car companies investing in new factories on the outskirts of cities like Pune and Madras (Chennai).

Soon the region around Pune alone will make more cars than Britain.

Many of them will be sold to India's eager domestic market. And there's plenty of room for expansion out in the countryside, where 70% of Indians still live.

But India's cities are already suffering from congestion and pollution, and millions of new cars will only make matters worse.

"You want to give mobility to all," said Anumita Roychowdhury of the Centre for Science and Environment. "And cars can never give mobility to all in Indian cities."

"You just do not have the space in Indian cities where you can motorise and meet the needs of everyone. There's a big equity issue here."

The response from the motor industry is robust.

"I'm all for a clean environment," declared Rahul Bajaj. "But if you want a real clean environment, go back to the cave age."

The rapid increase in demand for cars is closely linked to soaring economic growth, and Indians are understandably sensitive to suggestions that they shouldn't be able to enjoy freedoms people in the West take for granted.

But that still leaves India grappling with a familiar challenge on a massive scale: How to meet the demand for private cars and personal mobility in a way that works.

For a billion people, and counting.

You can see more on this story on 'Our World - India's Motoring Revolution' on the BBC News Channel in the UK on June 7th at 0530, 1430 and 2330, and on June 8th at 0330 and 1430

[tim] 15/6/2008 21:38

I think the jewelery demand is way underestimated. A visible symbol of new wealth in Asia is going to jewelery. As someone who has spent soemtime living in SE Asia, I understand that so much there is based on "face", infact it impacts everything they do. The poorest people try to wear the finest clothes and carry the latest phones all for show, even if it breaks the bank to do it. I have never seen a people so obsessed with the appearance of wealth and success.

Palladium is a perfect jewelery material, its about 10 times as rare as gold, therefore in many ways more precious, its harder wearing and many think more attractive. Its certainly has more cache than gold which is so common in India. Yet for the moment its half the price. If someone can just do a marketing job on it re "A diamond is forever" and demand will take off like wild fire.

[whipperin] 14/6/2008 00:08

Good thread LCT, keep it going.

[tywocky] 13/6/2008 21:27

I am told that the trouble with palladium is that an increased amount of Rhodium ( at $10,000 dollars per ounce) has to be used in the finished product so that the cost saving is not as great as it might first appear. Why else would Ford have decided to sell their Palladium stockpile and get out of the market ?
Regards

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 20:42

Right now over to Australia and Asia on Sunday Night.

Zeus

hmm Post 30 3+0=3

3 Jupiter Leader of people, bounty and benevolence Mainly get on well with No 3,6,9

Have a Great Weekend All

The Falling Knife

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 18:22

MACD Break by Monday CBOT Close or Sunday Night in Asia I think.





Palladium, the Lowest Density (ie most portable) store of Value of any Precious Metal, ie light, rare and Full of Value!

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 16:07

This will also be an enormous demand kicker over next five years



Focus on palladium's hydrogen storage potential

29 November 2005


US chemists have used a scanning tunneling microscope (STM) to shine light on the behaviour of hydrogen atoms when absorbed by the metal palladium. Their findings could lead to the development of more efficient hydrogen storage materials and better catalysts.




© PNAS


The ability of palladium to absorb up to 900 times its own volume of hydrogen at room temperature has led scientists to develop it as a catalyst for hydrogenation reactions and as a hydrogen storage material. Chemists at Pennsylvania State University, led by Paul Weiss, have now investigated the role of subsurface palladium atoms in hydrogen absorption.

Weiss and his team exposed the surface of a single crystal of palladium to hydrogen and then probed the surface and subsurface atomic layers using an STM. 'We moved the hydrogen atoms underneath the palladium surface [with the STM] and prepared and observed the subsurface hydride that has been hypothesised to be critical to hydrogenation reactions and also important in hydrogen storage and metal embrittlement,' Weiss told Chemistry World.

The chemists found that the hydrogen atoms were able to occupy stable sites in the subsurface palladium layer. But their presence seemed to affect the electronic structure of the surface layer, as if the hydrogen atoms were pushing the palladium atoms apart to make space. This structural change was so great that it prevented further hydrogen atoms adsorbing onto the surface layer, offering a potential way to control the surface properties of palladium.

Jon Evans

ReferencesE C H Sykes et al, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0506657102

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 15:55

Palladium went to US$1100 Just on US Motor Demand from 300,000,000 USA and Norilsk Nickel MSE:GMKN/Gokhran Supply Squeeze into January 2001 high.



I would put that between US$1,404 and US$1,469 in 2008 Dollars using 8% to 13%, and noting US M3 Growth of Allegedly 18% annualised in September 2007 I would argue US$1,534 by January 2008 Dollars.

It is going far higher on demand from more than 1,066.66% (3,200,000,000) more people just in India and China never mind rest of Asia.

Palladium will go up a very long way IMHO over next 5 years.

[tim] 13/6/2008 15:15

LCT

Yes the figures are stunning. I wonder if TATA have thought about their exposure to PD and will hedge once a certain number of cars are produced? Good work btw!

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 15:06

Indian car sales are predicted to more than quadruple to $145bn by 2016.

Same again?

What is 3,200,000,000 Motor cars or say 800,000,000 ie 1 in 4 ie 1 per family x 7 grammes of PGM?

5,600,000,000 grammes ie divided by 31.1035 g/toz=180,044,046.49 troy ounces?


What about China?

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 14:47

US Traders may well carry PAU8 North of US$467.15 Resistance Once they Wake Up!

After that clear run at US$496.00 then US$593.70