Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 05/10/2016 08:44

Prospectus download from here:

[jonwig] 05/10/2016 07:59

That's the intention, yes, though a lot could happen in the coming three weeks!

[garycook] 05/10/2016 07:47

jonwig,Are you taking up your rights in full ?

[jonwig] 05/10/2016 07:44

We've some dates:

20/10 ... record date for rights entitlement.
25/10 ... shares marked xr.
08/11 ... payment required (brokers will have their own, earlier deadline.
09/11 ... dealings in new shares.

Circular and prospectus should be on website soon.

[garycook] 04/10/2016 12:30

PHNX shareholder,s who cannot afford to take up their rights,look to be selling their shares to buy their rights today.Biggest loser on the FTSE 350 also ? edmundshaw.The rights should be around 225.

[edmundshaw] 04/10/2016 11:04

If you don't take up the rights you get a cash compensation. To what extent that is equivalent is uncertain; at any rate there is no guarantee of an instant profit.

[garycook] 04/10/2016 07:23

RCT,Well they are not at the loss are they,if you take up your rights.You have sold some of your PHNX shares,because you cannot afford to take up all your Rights.Taking up the rights,will be the best way forward for shareholder,s IMHO Taking the rights is an instant £1180 profit for me anyway.LOL !!!

[rcturner2] 04/10/2016 07:11

It's not an instant profit lol!

Your other shares are worth less.

[garycook] 04/10/2016 02:43

I calculated the same figures.I personally will be taking up the RI in full.SP now 884.Price of the Rights 508.SP after Rights 733 or now around 784? Buying the Rights at 508,will be instant profit on your investment of at least 225 a share.The Dividend even at 50p,work,s out around 6.8% yield at 733,and around 6.4% at 784. IMHO DYOR

[sogoesit] 03/10/2016 13:42

Yes, that appears to be the "bottom line" in money terms; £197m on 392.825m new shares.

[jonwig] 03/10/2016 13:34

From my post #1818, which current posters may have overlooked:

My reading of the dividend is, from the introduction:

"Acquisition will support a proposed increase in dividends in respect of 2017 to £197 million ..."

There are currently 248.08m shares in issue, so there will be 392.8m post-rights. This suggests dividends for 2017 of 50.15p.

Consideration of percentages and adjustments is invariably confusing. The company's RNS contains just one unambiguous figure, as seen above.

[bluemango] 03/10/2016 13:27

It is certainly not just you that is confused Sogoesit, though I think your post sets it out about as clearly as is possible.

What puzzles me now is how people can be so relaxed about an effective 10% cut in dividend income (if they don't add to their capital commitment by taking up the rights), from the projected 56p annually after the Axa deal, to nearer 50p post Abbey deal.

[sogoesit] 03/10/2016 13:01

ganthorpe, yes, I think so too.
bluemango; Note (2) to the statement about dividends says the following:

2) Stated after adjusting the 2015 dividend per share for the bonus element of the Rights Issue and based on the closing share price as at 27 September 2016 of 838.5p.

This contradicts what I previously thought.
My conclusion is that there will therefore be a 5% increase on the EQUIVALENT dividend per share adjusted for the new number of shares in issue.

My calculation is as follows:
Current half dividend (just paid today) of 26.70p/old share
Equivalent dividend adjusting for bonus element: 16.86p/share (7 for 12 rights)

Increased by 5% for the AXA deal: 17.70p/new share (annual 33.73p)
Increased by 5% for the Abbey deal (not compound): 18.55p/new share (annual 37.10p)

Does that make sense and work?

This is the quote:
"Acquisition will support a proposed increase in dividends in respect of 2017 to £197 million, representing a further 5%(2) increase in dividend per share ("DPS") in addition to the 5% increase in DPS as a result of the AXA transaction, and equivalent to a total increase in the DPS of 10%(2) from the 2015 level."

and

"Supports a further increase in the proposed dividend: The incremental cashflow generation from the Acquisition supports (subject to regulatory approval) a proposed increase in dividends in respect of 2017 to £197 million. Based on the closing share price on 27 September 2016, this is equivalent to a further 5%(2) increase in the DPS, with effect from the interim dividend payable in respect of 2017 and is in addition to the 5% increase in DPS as a result of the AXA transaction. The total dividend payable in respect of 2017 would represent an increase in the DPS of 10%(2) from the 2015 level. The Directors believe this is a sustainable level at which to rebase the dividend going forward."

However, my calculations do not tally with the total new dividend payments of £197m.

If £197m is paid out in 2017, on the total new shares, this would amount to an annual dividend of 50.15p (25.075p semi-annual).
I do not know why they say "based on the closing share price of 27 September 2016". Maybe these increases refer to a change in the YIELD not the dividend per share (DPS)?

Is it just me that is confused?

[ganthorpe] 01/10/2016 09:50

I think I saw a phrase somewhere in the notes about "adjusting for the bonus element" which suggests that we will not get 58.8P dividend but something like 49/50P.
But still very acceptable to me.

[gliderpilot2002] 29/9/2016 18:06

It appears my earlier post was wrong. I had not appreciated the all important fine detail until I looked at the announcement on the laptop screen. Thanks for drawing this to my attention. It appears dividends on the enlarged capital may be around 50p

[stun12] 29/9/2016 16:45

A very nice showing today. WIth the divi just about to be paid, well above the £9 level now - the under £8 purchases are all looking fine. I'm delighted to have stumbled upon the company which looks to be well-run and doing all the right things. I think I'll probably take up the rights, even though I'll end up a little top heavy as a result. Reluctant to take profits as the yield is so attractive.

[gliderpilot2002] 29/9/2016 16:34

If you have concerns about what the rns means about future dividend payments you should email investor relations. To me the language is clear.

[ursus] 29/9/2016 14:08

I understand you can't buy nil paid rights within an ISA. At least I was stopped from doing so with Melrose recently. You can of course sell those allocated to you.

[jonwig] 29/9/2016 10:48

Nor rely on companies to be clear when they make statements involving maths!

[speedsgh] 29/9/2016 10:13

Agree, jonwig. Having just re-read the rns in its entirety including the footnotes, i would be astounded if the FY2017 div is not re-based to c50p. If their statements re div are read carefully in conjunction with the relevant footnote, it is perfectly clear that they intend to re-base. Just goes to show one should never rely on broker notes (cf Shore Capital note). Or bb posters for that matter! :-) DYOR

[jonwig] 29/9/2016 09:46

Regarding the dividend, statements involving percentages are notoriously misleading (per-cent of what?), whereas statements of money ought not to be.

Hence the only thing you should be able to rely on unambiguously in the RNS is the one saying dividends would rise to GBP 197m in 2017. And this suggests about 50p/sh on the enlarged share capital.

[speedsgh] 29/9/2016 09:43

Hopefully clarification on the dividend going forward will be provided in the circular when it is published. I would be very (pleasantly) surprised if the div isn't re-based to take account of the larger number of shares in issue. Not long to wait to find out anyhow.

[bluemango] 29/9/2016 09:42

I think you may well be right RCT, but if so the RNS is misleading when it clearly talks of a rise "per share" (when in fact it's a rise in the overall 'pot' available, but distributed over a proportionately larger number of shares leading to a decrease per share), and as stated above Shore Capital will have misunderstood.

[rcturner2] 29/9/2016 09:40

Note also that buying the nil paid rights is a kind of leveraged exposure to the share price, so they will be more volatile than the actual share price. They will also have a time value element, so could also trade higher than the share price minus the rights price.