Given what appears to have happened on Friday, Monday should be interesting. Reflecting back on my posts at 16:26 and 16:24 on 31 December, the risk of the restructuring unwinding are significantly elevated and only made worse by the repeated delays and failure to deliver. It has the potential to get very very messy indeed.
I have struggled to understand the rationale of those who have been buying the shares over recent months and repeatedly asked myself am I missing something obvious. I sense we are almost at the point where that question will be answered. |
Can PFC make any deadline they set?
Not sure whether it was hubris or utter stupidity that has caused the latest delay. Then again, PFC seems to have plenty of form for displaying both simultaneously. |
Petrofac’s Creditors Fight Firm’s Restructuring in London Court |
No value for this stock , 0 |
Existing shareholders get even less than worse case expectations...
2.2%
"On the Restructuring Effective Date, the existing shareholders of the Company are expected to be allocated 2.2% of the Company’s total share capital (versus the 2.5% outlined in the 23 December announcement)"
Where have all those vocal bulls gone? |
price still holding up well despite the large equity |
halfpenny is now worthless, not even worth 1000 Vietnamese dong 🤡 |
upsizing equity
that is huge amount of equity |
And that's why it got shorted and has left shareholders with 2.2% . The idiots wouldn't listen and now rill pay the price . Probably worth about 1p a share now |
It's OVER for PFC |
https://archive.ph/2025.02.14-195930/https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/john-wood-group-shares-at-record-low-amid-200m-cashflow-crisis-2fch8tp5jSome of PFC'S problems were down to the post SFO bribery investigation but a lot of it was sector-wide..covid was also a killer for the sector. See wood's disastrous situation now... |
What's coming next |
It's OVER for PFC |
Well that's if the share price rises. But why would it do that? This is just a restructuring. The price may rise afterwards of course depending on what people see as prospects for the company with reduced debt, which currently isn't breaking even. And as per jd96 post above, I expect current ordinary shareholders will get the thin end of any wedge. |
Hi Vibes,
The base for your calculation is 7.4p.
If share price rise, your final value will jump up by 39 times the percentage rise. (39 =97.5/2.5).
E.g at 8p. Your estimated price will increase by 3.1 times.
Correct? |
In auction... |
A rough calculation:
$94 million of new cash will entitle the payer to 26.7% of the restructured company. The envisaged market capitalisation at that point is therefore $94 million x 100/26.7 = $352 million. Current shareholders will have 2.5% of this which is $8.8 million. Current market capitalisation is £38 million = $46 million at a share price of 7.4p. Therefore the share price after restructuring should be 7.4 x 8.8/46 = 1.4p/share. I am quite interested in buying at that price when it is all done, however they will no doubt do a share consolidation at the same time to muddy the waters. |
The FCA lets me invest in this pile of cr@p and lose virtually all my money invested. (or on the myriad of investment trust with really dodgy accounting and subpar performance, when not directly going bust)
But will not let Bitcoin ETFs to be available to UK investors "for our own protection"
Ridiculous |
 Jaknife,
In light of your comments on the lack of candour on the part of PFC and issues of trust around management I had a look at the 23 December restructuring announcement again.
The more one reads it the more questions arise about what is proposed and how executable it really is. It also raises fundamental issues of equity and fairness with respect to how shareholders (and even debt holders) are being treated in terms of how the restructuring cake is being cut.
What I find particularly offensive is that it appears certain shareholders (37%) - which I assume comprise A Asfari and family, AzValor Asset Management and I suspect the Employee Benefit Trust - as well as existing management subscribing for new shares are the beneficiaries of a warrant package for nil consideration that is not being made available to all ordinary shareholders. (If I am wrong about this I am happy to be corrected). What is particularly irksome with respect to any potential for handing additional shares to Asfari, AzValor and Management at no cost is that they are all being rewarded for failure (though I am sure after the losses they have sustained Asfari and AzValor probably need every free penny they can get - it certainly beats selling the Big Issue).
It is worth noting a lot of fees are being paid out and there is significant leakage in what is being injected back into the business. It is also worth highlighting that the 2.5% is subject to further dilution and that given the sweep on the New Notes the prospect of any dividends will be some way off. It is also worth reflecting on how the new Note Holders are cherry picking what they get security over and how super senior their payment obligations will be. Finally, it is also worth querying whether the Ad Hoc group are being overly greedy (and ambitious) in the split between what their debt converts into and that of the other debt providers and whether this is deliverable or a try on.
Would be interested to hear what others think about what is being proposed and just how realistic it is…. |
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