Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[bones698] 16/4/2024 07:57

Everyone ready for the walk down to sub 10p. Anyone with any sense will take the loss now and get out. Only the stupid ones will stay hoping for a miracle that won't come

Whites tour one of those dangerous people who don't know what they are doing and lose other people money with your BS ramping. People. Like you should be ashamed

[geckotheglorious] 16/4/2024 07:37

Schof
"Petrofac will survive and prosper"

No one said they wont, BUT it will be after a balance sheet restructuring that will wipe out 'current' shareholders...

[schofi2] 16/4/2024 00:31

The same posters on here that tried to trash CURY. Payed lackys all of them. Petrofac will survive and prosper.

[halfpenny] 15/4/2024 22:44

Its a disaster sinking every day....

FACT...Researcher ...

"Petrofac’s negotiations with lenders could see significant dilution for shareholders - Head of Equity Research, Derren Nathan, shares the latest."

Darker Days more Falls to come....

[dipa11] 15/4/2024 22:11

Https://www.petrofac.com/media/news/petrofac-relationship-with-bp-continues-with-north-sea-contract-extension/

[halfpenny] 15/4/2024 21:45

Disaster testing 20p then Further Crashes 14p target.

Dark Days Ahead....

[dipa11] 15/4/2024 21:43

Shorting reduced. Https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B0H2K534/

[bones698] 15/4/2024 20:45

Told everyone here not to bet against the shorters here. Now it looks like d4e is almost certain and will wipe out shareholders leaving them with around 5% going of other instances.

Will head south in a hurry now and just keep going as the news sinks in and people salvage what they can.

Some people never learn when the writing is on the wall

People like whites 123 and many other only weeks ago dying strong but

[valuehurts] 15/4/2024 20:36

If you like the equity a better play may be the debt here. If there is a miracle the debt will rerate higher and if not you will pick up the equity of a restructured business.

[warren bluff it 1] 15/4/2024 19:27

Possibly April 29th full year results

[jaknife] 15/4/2024 19:07

oppositelocker,

"Really lovely to hear the concerned posts from people trying to save people loosing money by telling them to sell and how bad PFC is and will continue to be. Heart warming stuff."

FWIW, there's no "concern" in my posts. Whilst I do feel sorry for some of the longs my purpose in posting is not down to altruism.

I am short and I have been for a long time. And as the share price has fallen I've added to that short position. The movement in the Petrofac share price is a meaningful input into my portfolio return as it represents a c. 8% position size (it has been higher).

Posting here helps me to focus my thoughts: (i) it helps me refine my thinking on particular topics by putting my thoughts down in writing, (*), (ii) it helps me understand the bull case so I can assess the strength of my (bear) argument relative to the strength of the bull case, (iii) it helps me to question on a daily basis whether I'm right or not, and (iv) it helps me to identify the personality and nature of those on the opposite side of the table to me to see if I'm up against Warren Buffet types or not.

Just FYI.

JakNife

(*) Just writing this post alone helps remind me why I post on ADVFN at all!

[oppositelocker] 15/4/2024 18:49

Really lovely to hear the concerned posts from people trying to save people loosing money by telling them to sell and how bad PFC is and will continue to be. Heart warming stuff.

Then there's the superior and patronising manner of whites123 giving the Ying to the Yang.

[geckotheglorious] 15/4/2024 17:27

Armbar
Post 39739
It did not say it revolves around a D4E but an option, engaged and in discussions , it is also in discussions with potential investors and main shareholders

Erm, go read the RNS again. It clearly does.

Honestly I give up people add words
Who is doing that?


But IF it happens and it is D4E 20p or 22p, You may say told you so, in reality if this happens you were 400% out , stated 4p for months

One thing I have not done is speculate what level the D4E would be at. Above my pay grade, and , despite being a potential buyer some time back, have never taken a position due to the excellent analysis here of those short.

Always pays to listen to the bond investors.

[halfpenny] 15/4/2024 16:45

Massive falls today with more falls to come.

Target 20p test then 14p or less

Darker Days Ahead....

[wellbutpoor] 15/4/2024 15:17

Throg that's hurting my eyes

[throgmortonstreet] 15/4/2024 14:47

Massive debt for equity exchange coming, existing shareholders will be left with LESS THAN 10% OF THE TOTAL EQUITY when completed

[lodgeview] 15/4/2024 14:45

Matters not where PFC is concerned. It's OVER for PFC

[wellbutpoor] 15/4/2024 14:32

DJIA very strong coming out of the gates

[loglorry1] 15/4/2024 14:25

There's a decent business in there probably once current equity is washed away and lenders take some pain. Hunting HTC has 2025E sales of $1.1bn and net profit of $81.7m not much debt and trades on a pe of 11.

There might be way way most nasties in PFC than we've seen but if they can rinse away the debt to equity and start again and trade like HTG then there is an upside for the new owners.

The question being are the new owners the BH, the banks or the people who will be required to put in fresh equity and how much fresh equity do they need to turn a corner.

GHH thinks buying the bonds is a good way into this new ownership model and he might be right but we don't know yet.

What we do know is that the current equity owners will be washed away probably even more than they currently are. We know this because otherwise the capital structure will be upended and that can't happen.

[ghhghh] 15/4/2024 14:00

FC

PFC has too much debt and not enough cash. Hence they can't get PG's. Without PG's they go bust.

Non core asset sales, by all accounts, are about $100m, perhaps up to $120m.

We know the package they are seeking is c. $450m from OG Journal at start of year.

So how do they get out of this hole?

Only two REALISTIC possibilities

1. They get taken over but why now?

2. They sell something core eg the UK operation. Debtholders would demand a big chunk of this and would the remaining smaller, less diversified business get PG's?