Petershill Partners Share Discussion Threads

[mrscruff] 30/11/2022 16:47

Podcast with Money Maze: Exploring Goldman Sachs’s Listed Private Equity Vehicle, Petershill Partners – With Robert Hamilton Kelly, Managing Directo.

hHtps://www.moneymazepodcast.com/podcast/robert-hamilton-kelly

[jonwig] 25/11/2022 17:07

Mr Kheraj has bought a further 50,000 at 177.8p.

[jonwig] 23/11/2022 10:24

The most recent accounts (HY to 30/06) show income profit of $139m and change in fair value of $(613m). The end result was a loss of 31c per share.

Numbers can vary hugely when asset value adjustments are part of the picture. The balance sheet though shows net assets of 425c per share, around 360p.

[jonwig] 23/11/2022 08:14

stewart - agreed it's not an easy one, and they don't exactly help.

The way profit is arrived at is straightforward: revenues less costs plus non-cash increase in asset values. (But we just have to assume that asset valuation is done prudently. In that sense, it's like private equity, there's no market mechanism.)

Fees will be following the trend of all asset managers: reduced market activity and dealmaking. That probably made the share price a bit weak.

It's certainly a puzzle that they managed to get it away at 350p, and it's now virtually halved. Boss (Kheraj) was buying at 307p and 243p on the way down, and the buybacks were hardly effective, so obviously insiders are puzzled by the weakness.

Unlike a good few hedge funds, they seem to have zero exposure to cryptocurrency - that's good!

[stewart64] 23/11/2022 07:56

If this was a bit less opaque and clear it might be more investable, I am not a shareholder but could be if this vehicle was more transparent. It could be a great investment? The balance sheet is a bit of a grey area for me, so too how the profit is arrived at. 137 million revenue becomes 260 million pre-tax and then further agrandised to a price to earnings of 5 ( presumably asset adjustments). The next annuals could be anywhere, because revenues alone can get adjusted massively in either direction.

[makinbuks] 22/11/2022 12:07

Was £50m buyback at £2.02 a good deal then?

[spectoacc] 26/9/2022 08:35

Good point :) My problem is, I panic early, then buy back too soon.

Very difficult not to fall for recency bias - "It was £2 the other week, now it's £1.50, it's cheap".

And FOMO of course.

SGRO a quality operator but as with all of them, only takes small changes to NAVs & interest rate expectations to have large effects on s/p. Was Big Box a bubble? Weren't 3%, 4% yields only valid in the new normal of ZIRP, which is now no longer the new normal?

But agree on demand/structural change, which is why I'm losing a packet on EBOX atm :)

(As an aside - I rate SHED's management highly - would pick them over the likes of WHR).

[jonwig] 26/9/2022 08:28

SGRO (big boxes) and SHED (last mile) are my two holdings. I'm selling neither. SGRO has largely EU assets I think, which might help, and there's still a shortage of last mile facilities I believe.

The rule is, if you're going to panic, panic early; otherwise there's a danger you'll be selling at the bottom. (Of course, if you hold a dud, it's bottomless.)

[spectoacc] 26/9/2022 08:21

Fair point, some easier to dodge than others :)

Is a massive "opportunity cost" issue out there atm too - just been looking at SHED, but why would I buy that over eg SGRO, WHR, all the small REITs? Who's currently cheapest?

And same PHLL, with added problem of opaqueness.

I fear we're going to get some serious bargains fairly soon (fear, because some of them will be things I'm already in higher).

[jonwig] 26/9/2022 08:19

They rarely are! But the MD was a big buyer on the way down (around 300 and 250 if my memory's right).

Nobody's clever much in the stockmarket. Dodging bullets is the best skill to have.

[spectoacc] 26/9/2022 08:07

Buy back perhaps not looking so clever now.

[jonwig] 25/9/2022 07:54

A follow-up from the last post -

Net assets at 30/06 were $4,893m which is 390p using forex rate of 1.085. So a 50% discount which is pretty high even for the PE sector. (I don't think they hedge, and don't need to.)

The key thing is how indebted they are at see-through into the underlying portfolio companies. I'll ask them if they even know, but don't expect an answer.

[jonwig] 24/9/2022 12:39

An article in today's FT describes how quoted PE buyout companies have fallen more than the market, because they haven't been quick enough to revalue their underlying investments along with the market. And -

... Goldman Sachs’ Petershill Partners, a London-listed group that owns minority stakes in private equity firms, reported an accounting loss as it marked down the value of its investments.

Although most of PHLL's partner firms are unquoted, PHLL itself has been proactive in this respect.

A corollary here is that quoted PE firms may look cheap (big discounts) but that can be an illusion.

[jonwig] 22/9/2022 06:50

Is it any different from a fund-of-funds model? The investee funds are mostly private equity, and they add the Goldman Sachs "secret sauce".

A discount rate of 17% on the underlying valuations is very conservative.

[topvest] 21/9/2022 14:06

Agreed, its a tad opaque. I'm interested at the right price. 75% owned by GS makes you nervous though. Need to do some more research before investing. Its an interesting asset class.

[donald pond] 21/9/2022 08:32

I sold out a few weeks ago in the mid 230s. I find it very tricky to confidently understand what's happening here

[jonwig] 21/9/2022 07:31

H1 results;



Decent progress at operating level, but IFRS loss caused by asset valuation reductions. (Blended discount rate moved from 15% to 17% which is a big drop.

Share price might test the lows.

[spectoacc] 05/7/2022 08:29

Agreed, but - not yet IMO. Going to be quite a few end up trading below cash, and several will be value traps (CHRY?).

A lot of co's out there going to need more cash, and a lot that will never make any. Tide gone out.

[jonwig] 05/7/2022 08:25

They've been pretty confident from the start, despite early share price falls. (Boss bought a lot.)
Private Equity and Alternative Assets might be a decent bet in these markets?

[spectoacc] 05/7/2022 08:10

Buying back a lot of shares - not sure it's the best policy in this market. Would be getting a good entry point without it!

....Or rather - as everything similar tanks, the buyback holds PHLL up higher than it would be, with a likely big fall ahead when the buyback ends. Meanwhile, they're "over-paying" for the shares they're buying back.

[donald pond] 26/5/2022 08:25

I missed that too, think there were problems with the RNS system yesterday

[jonwig] 26/5/2022 07:11

I missed yesterday's trading update - see header list. Whilst very positive, it only takes us to 31 March. A lot of stuff has happened since.