Petershill Partners Share Discussion Threads

[byzantine626] 12/2/2022 17:26

Thank you very much!

[jonwig] 12/2/2022 16:46

Here - the Jan 2022 one (I haven't read the Feb one yet:



Page 38.

[byzantine626] 12/2/2022 15:38

This is very interesting. Have you a source? Unfortunatley I cannot find it.

[tania67] 11/2/2022 18:54

This week’s presentation includes a pro forma Q3 NAV of USD 4255m (=GBP3136m at current exch rate). Using Jonwig’s 1,157m shares in issue => GBP2.71 per share: a discount of 20%.

[jonwig] 07/2/2022 09:07

Chairman bought at 307 and 244, so it's obviously a tough one to evaluate.

[donald pond] 07/2/2022 09:01

Jon, the valuation is so subjective here but I have to start from the assumption that IPO was around fair value. But I've clearly made a mistake buying in at 244. I'm going to wait until the next results and try to work out what NAV might be.

[jonwig] 07/2/2022 08:50

donald - in #19 I estimated the nav to be 207p. What's your calculation please, for a much higher figure? (Genuine question.)

[donald pond] 07/2/2022 08:39

Interesting dynamic here. Discount looks absurdly large and if tide is turning against risk on assets then it's not entirely negative with PHLL looking to buy in that market

[divmad] 04/2/2022 18:56

It's a leveraged play on those who manage risk assets, basically.

[cc2014] 02/2/2022 13:28

I have just found this stock. Not really my usual bag but of course the decline in share price attracts me as a fly to fly-paper.

A worrying scenario as once the fly gets stuck to the paper it can't get off and I wonder if the whole market pulls back whether this will see another step down.

The decline is severe though and must (surely?!?) have a bottom.

I best do some proper research on this one.

[jonwig] 21/1/2022 16:19

winnet - no, I meant the maths.

I took the assets at 30/06, added new money raised and divided by number of shares.
We don't know what their P&L will look like at 31/12 - ie. their intermediate profitability.

They will make some cash, as they intend paying a small dividend, but most profits will go into carried interest, I would think.

[winnet] 21/1/2022 15:12

I think you've missed the fact they arent making any money?

[jonwig] 21/1/2022 08:32

I calculate the opening NAV on IPO to be 207p, but the way they value their 'partner assets' is a bit mysterious.

Calculation:
Assets at 31/06 $2,506m + new money raised £547m = £2,390m.
1,157m shares in issue.

Have I missed something?

[donald pond] 21/1/2022 08:12

What a terrible IPO. Can only assume the market wants to see some results before deciding whether to buy. But GS have every incentive to make this work. Very odd

[divmad] 20/1/2022 15:52

You'd think that the Chairman, being a savvy GS type, would have a better handle on market timing his buys.

[donald pond] 18/1/2022 09:10

I've just bought a few. It's not the simplest business to understand but looks a good diversifier, still has a lot of cash and is well below where the chair bought in some size.

[jonwig] 18/1/2022 07:09

Acquisitions update, busy -

[jonwig] 05/1/2022 08:15

I'd go along with that strategy, and the Symphony Tech stake is just in the right place.

[mrscruff] 04/1/2022 20:26

I have been accumulating sub 370p as the discount is attractive. Still a large seller since IPO as I suppose was the plan to always exit. This is a unique trust containing a mix of assets that should provide smoother returns over many cycles other than crash where it will suffer from the same issues. Lots of private equity property, credit all the way to tech. The discount narrowing is what I am looking forward to and will exit when narrowed however long that takes.

[jonwig] 04/1/2022 08:37

Chairman has been a heavy buyer, twice.

Another look at the numbers suggests fee income of $430m for full year and dividend of $30m. That would be eps of 19p and dividend of 1.5p.

[ccnp] 04/11/2021 10:41

'Poor judgement' on the part of GS. As the saying goes; Yeah. Right.

GS judgement is all about their profits. If there is collateral damage beyond their bank accounts, it's tough. As you say, they still have sufficient interest to want something tasty before they cut it adrift

[jonwig] 04/11/2021 09:45

It depends on how their investee companies have traded over the past six weeks or so. These are hedge funds/private equity, and GS doesn't have all that much control of events.

PEs ought to be performing well, HFs bring all sorts of surprises, and these will have happened post-IPO Not jail, but maybe poor judgment of GS's part.

Whatever, I'm not sure I want to be part of this story, mainly because GS will have significant carried interest in its companies.

[ccnp] 07/10/2021 07:44

Hmmmmmmm. At what point will the dead cat bounce? This has to be a buy at some level.

[ccnp] 01/10/2021 15:09

Ohhhh there it pops. 355p. Can it hold it