Petards Share Discussion Threads

[hatey] 06/10/2016 11:05

Well they have been offering stock at mid price or lower for weeks then buys started
to creep higher until it hit full offer.
There is never a big overhang in this stock, just if they go on a run of small sales
it adds up so it never takes much buying to eliminate it.

Classic shake this morning on wait for it..a 1215 sale on ISDX at 16p, jeez these
mm's get worse and worse, imagine them putting up the price on a buy that size it
never happens.

[truffle] 05/10/2016 17:21

How do we know the overhang has been cleared? How does this information become known? I hope you are correct but would like to know how anyone knows this sort of thing.

[hatey] 05/10/2016 16:15

Small overhang cleared that is the reason.

[tiltonboy] 05/10/2016 15:55

Tip out?

A flurry of trades, and nice move up.

[rivaldo] 05/10/2016 15:43

Two buys today totalling 78k shares, and the share price moved up on each of them. Good to see :o))

[rivaldo] 28/9/2016 09:44

Indeed - Perloff now above 7% and Chelverton Growth Trust over 5%. Encouraging.

[tiltonboy] 28/9/2016 07:26

Nice to see Andrew Perloff mopping up the loose stock over the last few days.

[hatey] 19/9/2016 10:23

Madness to sell at 15p like somebody has done today.

[rivaldo] 15/9/2016 12:16

Just illiquidity - around £20k of sales this morning was enough! We benefit from it on the upside so can't complain too much about a bit of profit-taking. An opportunity imho.

[mobtheplod] 15/9/2016 10:13

Big drop at the mo - tree shake????

[rivaldo] 15/9/2016 07:38

Should be good news for PEG as train building in the UK continues to grow:



"Latest trains pick up speed as manufacturer looks north

The return of train-building to Britain is picking up steam after it emerged that CAF, a Spanish rolling-stock company with contracts to construct the new Caledonian Sleeper and the replacement for the Pacers in the north of England, would open its first factory in the UK.

CAF, which is expected to build the plant in the north, said that it would hire 200 workers to man an assembly line and build parts and interior furnishings. It said that it could double the size of the plant, depending on orders.

The announcement comes after the building of a factory at Newton Aycliffe in the northeast by Hitachi, of Japan, to assemble new intercity express trains for the east coast main line and the Great Western.

Bombardier, Britain’s largest trainmaker, is busy making hundreds of carriages for Crossrail at its factories in Derby.

CAF secured a €200 million order for 75 luxury carriages for Serco after it won the Caledonian Sleeper night train franchise between London and Scotland last year. Since then CAF has won orders worth more than €1 billion for as many as 300 engines and carriages for the Northern Rail and TransPennine Express franchises."

[effortless cool] 11/9/2016 14:33

Yes, my approach to tax is to normalise the tax charge for the PE multiple calculation, then add back the value of the recognised tax assets and 25% of the value of the unrecognised tax assets.

[rhomboid] 11/9/2016 13:58

Thx for the update EC, it's worth bearing in mind that there is still over £1.6m of unrecognised tax asset which one hopes will be eaten up over the next few years so a nil tax charge should be a continuing feature for a while yet.

I'm hopeful that we should see a return to dividends at Y/E unless a compelling new acquisition is made.

[effortless cool] 11/9/2016 12:58

I have updated the header to show revised projections based on the 2016 H1 results. All key metrics except cash have improved, and my target price has increased to 22.9p.

[rhomboid] 09/9/2016 16:05

I meant he may want to suppress income and flip over into capital gains which he'll get relief on as and when he chooses to crystalize, or something..

[tiltonboy] 09/9/2016 15:01

highly unlikely, unless he sells them.

[rhomboid] 09/9/2016 14:08

CGT rather than income tax driven?

[tiltonboy] 09/9/2016 13:58

Rather odd that Abdullah has converted some of his loan stock, therein losing the coupon!

[courant] 07/9/2016 13:00

I wonder if anyone knows, because I don't see it either in the interims or the last annual report, what the breakdown between the different business units is, both in terms of revenues, profits, and order book size? (If only approximate.) My feeling is that the rail business is going to be far more capable of delivering sustainable growth, and this is possibly masked by lumpiness in defence and emergency services divisions. Still happy to hold in any case, these are still cheap by my reckoning!

[rivaldo] 07/9/2016 12:42

Extracts from WHI's note this morning FYI:

"Petards

Interims – another period of sustained progress

Petards supplies advanced security and surveillance systems to the Transport,
Defence and Emergency Services markets. H1 2016A results demonstrated another
solid performance, with revenue ahead by 22.2% and PBT by 33.4%. Whilst the
order book fell by 25% in the six months to 30 June, in excess of £4m in new orders
have since been received. With the order book currently standing at £13.5m,
visibility for the current financial year remains robust, with a good pipeline of
opportunities continuing to be presented. On the back of the results, we leave our
revenue and PBT forecasts unchanged, whilst we increase our capex assumption to
take account of investment being made. We maintain our Buy recommendation and
raise our 12-month share price target to 22p (from 20p), equating to a PER of 12x."

"We raise our share price target to 22p Based on our forecasts, the shares currently trade on a FY 2016E fully diluted PER of 9.8x and EV/EBITDA of 3.5x. Given the level of secured work, in addition to the pipeline of opportunities ahead, we believe that these multiples continue to undervalue the business. Following these results, we raise our share price target to 22p, still a c.20% discount to the sector PER multiple."

[tiltonboy] 07/9/2016 10:39

PEG continue to be plagued by lumpiness of orders, which I have alluded to over the years. Until they can demonstrate that this is no longer the case, they will not get a market rating. A fully diluted p/e of 10 is high enough in the short term. They need further acquisitions to achieve critical mass IMHO.

[rivaldo] 07/9/2016 09:31

Cheers tiltonboy, that's good news.

WH Ireland's core EPS forecast is 2.57p EPS, which leaves PEG looking extremely undervalued.

And even using fully diluted EPS forecasts of 1.8p (fully diluted) from WHI and 1.9p from Hybridan still sees PEG on an extremely cheap rating imho given the order books and the likelihood of strong results both this year and next year.

22p would be a good start anyway.

[tiltonboy] 07/9/2016 08:49

A bit of profit-taking was inevitable following recent strength.

WIRE leave forecasts unchanged, but increase target price to 22p.

[rivaldo] 07/9/2016 07:51

Agreed - and with recent orders the order books have been restored to high levels.

With £189k of amortisation, share-based payments and exceptionals, the adjusted profit is actually £664k, giving 1.9p adjusted EPS for H1. The fully diluted H1 EPS is 1.3p.

Either way, it looks like PEG will certainly meet and likely beat 1.9p EPS expectations for the year.

Plus PEG have £2m net cash.

The QRO acquisition now looks ridiculously good at a net cost of just £239k.

The outlook says it all:

"Since the half year the Group has continued to trade well with new orders totalling over £4 million secured and with further business under negotiation for 2017 and beyond.

With the strong results for the first half year and the current orders scheduled for delivery in the second half year, the board is confident that the Group is well placed to deliver full year results in line with market expectations."

[noujay] 07/9/2016 07:38

This makes very good solid reading IMO, you would think a breach of 20p cannot be far off.