Petards Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 14/12/2016 22:04

Bones,

I do not generally post my trades, but I'm all for transparency when somebody asks, or you get people like hatey accuse you of all sorts!

I actually do very little in small AIM stuff, which is good as they are usually the ones that cause me problems...lol...if we can get further recovery from TPG and DCI I might even give up at this end of the market!

Stick to collectives, and special sits which is my area of expertise.

[bones] 14/12/2016 21:11

Thank you Tiltonboy for the best wishes. I have only admiration for your policy of reducing risk while at the same time capturing handsome profits by selling on the way up! Plus publishing those facts real time which you did not have to do.I am late into these really but it takes a catalyst and being aware of it taking place. For me the 6M contract started my research and Andrew Perloff's continued accumulation into his pension fund suggested it was a good bet. Plus the recapitalisation suggesting resumption of dividends could be imminent.So, in at 18 - 20 in four lumps. I hope now that more contracts arrive before the finals and that those numbers will be good.I am wary of too much capitalisation of development costs so need to keep an eye out for that kind of profit massaging. Also this is a small company under family interests so be aware of issues of good governance.That said, I imagine the 3 or 4 shareholders that have 7 - 10% interests will keep an eye on all of that . Let's hope PEG gets a piece of the East Anglian project soon!

[tiltonboy] 14/12/2016 08:56

I was trawling through my historic dealings yesterday, looking for information for my accountant, and came across my Water Hall trades. I had forgotten how low I had bought some of them, and quite how long ago it was.

I can look back on the last six months, and think that I was a bit premature in when I started selling, but when you have been scarred by the performance over the preceding years, and have a decent-sized position in an illiquid stock, you have to start somewhere.

Congratulations to those that have stayed with it, where the courage of your convictions has paid off handsomely. I retain a modest holding (71k shares), and will see where they are in the new tax year.

Wishing all the genuine posters a great Christmas.

[rivaldo] 14/12/2016 08:41

Hybridan's forecasts are now 2.56p EPS for the year about to finish and 2.83p EPS for 2017 (fully diluted 1.85p and 2.04p respectively).

They also show a cash pile of £2.65m this December and £3.45m next December.

[bones] 13/12/2016 21:06

Some more chunkier trades on the buy side today including 80,000 @ 25.6p late on. Intriguing to see all these purchases in the mid-20p's when there were opportunities over the last two months to pay less than 20p following the £6M contract which was the screaming buy signal IMO. Let's hope the new investors who look at companies > £10M market cap (as discussed in earlier posts) start chasing this into the 30p's?

[the oak tree] 13/12/2016 14:49

"Doubly " sorry for typo.

[the oak tree] 13/12/2016 14:48

Here's an extract from stockopedia daily company comment. Hope they don't mind! Well worth subscribing to them. Quite agree re the £10m cap and it then appearing on many more radars. Doubt wampy for these tiny caps. Petards (LON:PEG)Share price: 24.75p (+13%)No. shares: 34.9mMarket cap: £9mContract WinI've been prompted to comment on this small contract win with Siemens, a longstanding customer of Petards:The equipment to be supplied provides the trains and their drivers with enhanced capability in the areas of security and surveillance through CCTV coverage, both internal and external, of saloon areas combined with pantograph, forward facing and track debris monitoringThe order is worth approximately £2 million. Engineering activities will commence immediately with the first equipment deliveries to be made at the end of the first quarter 2017 and it is anticipated that the project will be completed during 2018.It's the third contract win announcement from Petards since October, all coming on the back of a promising interim report which showed continuing PBT of £526k. The shares have picked up quite a bit of momentum, doubling since July.Perhaps if the market cap can break through £10 million, it might show up on the radar screen for a few more investors?It's probably worth researching in more detail. I tried studying it a couple of years ago, but realised that I would have a lot of difficulty predicting its lumpy contract wins. So in the end I waited for an exceptionally cheap share price, and never quite pulled the trigger on it Maybe someone is out there with a keener insight into the demand for these products: train CCTV systems, passenger counting systems, etc.

[noujay] 13/12/2016 08:04

A very encouraging few weeks with consistent news and good sized contracts being announced. Seems to have fuel in the tank for a good run

[rivaldo] 13/12/2016 07:48

Coverage from Hybridan FYI - note the forward P/E of just 10.5, which is before stripping out the £2m+ cash pile:

"Petards Group* (PEG.L)
22p £7.8m

The software developer of advanced security and surveillance systems, has been awarded a contract to supply Siemens Mobility Division with PetardseyeTrain systems. The order is worth approximately £2m.

Engineering activities will commence immediately with the first equipment deliveries to be made at the end of the first quarter 2017 and it is anticipated that the project will be completed during 2018.

This is yet another key contract under the global framework agreement with Siemens . Our FY2017 forecasts are looking for revenues of £16m and PBT of
£1m. 10.5x forward PE multiple."

[bones] 12/12/2016 15:14

CHESTY, that's going back a while. Hasn't the management and activity changed completely since then? Now another company essentially. I may be wrong though without more research.

[bones] 12/12/2016 14:59

Well played tiltonboy. Without your supply, this share could go places!

CHESTY, selling at 12p does that to people.

[rivaldo] 12/12/2016 14:58

No pumping on this quiet thread. In fact the stock has thrived despite Tiltonboy's selling into the rise all the way up.

[chesty1] 12/12/2016 14:31

Cannot beat a bit of pumping....don't be left holding for the dumping.

[tiltonboy] 12/12/2016 13:57

...and now 25p has gone. No more to do this side of the tax year, as all my ISA'd ones have gone!

[panic investor] 12/12/2016 12:24

Plenty of contracts starting to come through now

[bones] 12/12/2016 12:05

Looks like you are making the market tiltonboy! Your 40k has not halted the action.

[barnetpeter] 12/12/2016 11:19

30 pence wont be long....take over price of 60 pence.

[tiltonboy] 12/12/2016 11:05

24p has fallen...next level 25p.

[tiltonboy] 12/12/2016 10:12

We view this morning’s news as being highly supportive for Petards, further building the order book beyond the current financial year. At this stage we leave our FY 2016E and FY 2017E PBT/diluted EPS estimates unchanged (FY 2016E £0.9m/1.9p, FY 2017E £1.0m/2.0p), this contract helping to further underpin our forecasts. Based on our estimates, the shares currently trade on a FY 2016E fully diluted PER of 11.8x falling to 10.8x in FY 2017E. Given the level of secured work, as demonstrated by a number of notable contracts wins in recent months, in addition to the pipeline of opportunities ahead, we see further upside to the shares. We maintain our Buy recommendation and raise our share price target to 28p (from 22p), which would equate to a FY 2017E PER multiple of c.14x.

[rivaldo] 12/12/2016 09:51

Cheers tiltonboy. Have they increased their forecasts for next year too?

[tiltonboy] 12/12/2016 07:56

WIRE target price now 28p!

[rivaldo] 12/12/2016 07:37

Yep, another £2m contract win - the 2p+ EPS forecasts for next year must be looking pretty solid already given the series of contract wins:



The m/cap here is still only £7.8M.

[tiltonboy] 01/12/2016 16:29

riv,

...lol...down to the last 156k now. We can always look back and think that perhaps we should have held on longer, but after two years in the 10-14 range, and never bid for enough when they got to the top of the range, I had to start selling at some stage.

Hopefully I can get my money back in DCI now!