Peninsular Gold Share Discussion Threads

[jonny flame] 15/11/2010 13:11

Volvo - many thanks for posting this article, a nice read!

[volvo] 15/11/2010 12:48

Probably causing some interest.

[simonparker5] 12/11/2010 10:13

Good bit of interest again today.

[biggest bill] 11/11/2010 10:08

I've added a few more shares this morning; up to 90,000 shares now. That's probably enough for me in a single gold company.

[luckyjonah] 11/11/2010 09:55

BiggestBill - yes, compared to its peers it is way cheaper than others who are just starting to produce, or plan to produce, 25,000ozs. And then we have the capacity doubling, grades doubling, better taxes, safer location, unhedged sales, further drilling, etc.

[jonny flame] 11/11/2010 09:20

There we go....edit, back down again.

[eric76] 11/11/2010 08:58

Chart looks tempting with gold so high, perhaps a breakouts being attempted? Don't see much resistance before 70p if this volume starts to move the stock.

[jonny flame] 11/11/2010 08:49

But no tick up yet?

Maybe PGL is finally starting to register on a few PI's radars?

[simonparker5] 11/11/2010 08:11

Amazing interest this morning, have we been tipped somewhere I wonder?

[jonny flame] 10/11/2010 13:45

OT / engelo - I'm now back in SOLG.

[luckyjonah] 10/11/2010 10:47

muzoman, I'm not going to profess that my calculation model is either comprehensive or completely accurate cos it's not - basically I just use a spreadsheet to input various parameters like the ore processing rate, costs per oz, g/t of Au, a year-on-year range of gold prices, tax rates per year (3.8% with Pioneer Status, 25% afterwards), number of shares in issue, GBP/USD exchange rate and finally a discount factor!

Mix them all up in the spreadsheet and fiddle around with the numbers. I actually realised the numbers I gave yesterday were using an 8% discount factor, if it's 10% which is more standard then they become 132p and 235p respectively.

There are of course a million ways to improve the spreadsheet the more you get into the details (especially around costs and financing), and a million ways to play with all the various parameters. For example if you're a gold bull and think it will go to $2000 next year and stay at that level, then it comes out to 436p @ 10% discount, 475p @ 8% discount. Or you could think gold will tank and drop to $800 with costs rising to $600/oz in which case it comes out to 75p on my model, which is still above the current price which shows how cheap PGL is.

However I work on the assumption that my model is inaccurate and any numbers are approximate... but a ballpark range of 250-900% upside is good enough for me.

[jonny flame] 10/11/2010 09:01

Why would they need to do another placing when they did one in Oct? Please explain.

[robhammers] 10/11/2010 08:30

think it looks like another placing on way

[jonny flame] 10/11/2010 08:15

Hmm still a seller about.

[gavinw33] 09/11/2010 22:27

JF you did time that top up to perfection. I like your confidence. Well done.

[muzoman] 09/11/2010 19:05

LuckyJonah,

Interesting reading your way of analysing the price going forward. Would you be so kind to be a more explicit of the formula you use to get to the NPV10 figures you quoted.

Many thanks,

Muzoman

[jonny flame] 09/11/2010 10:48

gavinw33 - that's usually a good indication to buy, as long as you are confident of the fundamentals. I said a similar thing on the GDP bb the other day after someone said they sold out (I do not own any GDP).

Reckon it might be onwards and upwards from here, IMHO.

[gavinw33] 09/11/2010 10:35

There I was about to post on here this morning bemoaning the lackluster share price movement given the POG of late...

I take it back!

Looking forward to our next update.

[simonparker5] 09/11/2010 10:16

Guys, am I right in thinking we have full year results at the end of the month? If so I guess we will also get a production update.

[luckyjonah] 09/11/2010 10:10

divinausa1 - PE is not a good way to measure gold miners... you could have a mine producing 200,000 ozs pa and making a profit of £50m - but if they have no more gold to mine they are worthless! You need to do a NPV10 valuation based upon the projected cashflows from the mining year-on-year.

FWIW my own model - with costs of $530, assume production doubles in 2011, grades double in 2012, gold price slips down to $800 by 2017 (I like to be conservative!) - gives an NPV10 of 141p. If you think gold will hold steady at $1300 for the next 10 years then that becomes 255p.

Jonny - you forgot they have Pioneer Status for another 4 years which means they only pay 3.8% tax too :-)

[jonny flame] 09/11/2010 09:34

Yep, had to buy as many as I could in small lots this morning. Managed to increase my holding by 30%. This seems to be a no brainer at the current price.

- Market cap less than 40m GBP
- Gold producer at a cash cost of around 500 US $
- Producing around 1800 oz per month which should ramp up
- 5.5m GBP cash in the bank after recent fund raising
- Drilling targets to increase resource base
- Already reported significant grades from a recent drill
- Production expansion to a run rate of 2mtpa at the Raub project in 2011
- Looking to become a 100,000 oz gold producer over the coming years
- Only 77.5m shares in issue, tightly held stock.

Yet it's valued less than some gold explorers that are years away from production

[biggest bill] 09/11/2010 09:28

It's not easy to buy many shares in this company at a price near to the quoted price. Every time I buy some shares, the share price jumps.

[jonny flame] 09/11/2010 09:10

Added a few more this morning.

[divinausa1] 03/11/2010 04:14

whats the PE here going into 2011?