Pcf Share Discussion Threads

[hopespr1ngseternal] 06/9/2022 21:31

Dandi: Castle Trust is unlisted. If PCF becomes a wholly owned subsidiary of Castle via an all share takeover we will no longer own shares in PCF but in Castle Trust which is unlisted. I think this may. be one reason why PCF is trading at a price which looks absurdly low. That said I would rather have a small holding in a profitable bank than a larger holding in a bank that has insufficient capital even though I will have to wait patiently for Flowers to secure an exit via a listing or a sale. As no doubt will Somers.

[dandigirl] 06/9/2022 19:22

.. as, if unlisted, how would PE exit?

[dandigirl] 06/9/2022 19:20

hopes: where does it say that the new group would be unlisted please?

[hopespr1ngseternal] 06/9/2022 17:04

Goddamit we have already been told that the transaction if it goes ahead will be all shares and will leave pcf shareholders with a small minority stake in the combined unlisted group - but with a principal shareholder who will be looking for an exit over time as that is what private equity does.

[goddamitmaverick] 06/9/2022 16:49

Good luck. I think a deal is coming but probably shares not cash and will they take PCF private making it illiquid? Anything above 6p looks like a deal now with losses running freely. Another bid may make CT hurry up and decide and realise there are alternatives.

[dandigirl] 02/9/2022 08:35

Maverick: Plenty of reasons not to buy.

Anyway, bought some this a.m. at 2.79.

Had a little cash available

Have bought in several lots in recent days to average down to just over 12.

Looking forward to hearing news soon.

Why does everything at PCF seem to take forever?

[cc2014] 02/9/2022 07:43

#4191

What you are missing is the lack of capital you refer to in post 4190.

PCF has enough regulatory captial to keep going at its present size and given enough time it will sort its problems out and turn a profit and the 3p may be considered cheap.

The issue is that the size of the regulatory capital is linked to PCF's profitability and PCF has no ability to withstand signficant losses without that resulting in a reduction in the loan book.

We are heading into a consumer shock this winter over the cost of living due to inflation/mortgate costs/energy costs. It is hard to see PCF's impairment number not rising. Also, given the increase in cost of capital due to higher interest rates, it's hard not to see their NIM not being under significant pressure.


All this is true regardless of whether Castle buy PCF or PCF bumbles along as it is. Sure, if Castle buy it I'm sure they can strip out some costs but are they enough to overcome what is surely going to be on-going losses for some considerable time. And would Castle get it for a much lower price in a years time?

[goddamitmaverick] 01/9/2022 20:21

Offered at 3p now.So CT clock is ticking and surely their final chance to deal or no deal. The right buyer would move quickly and decisively and make provision for claw back of any undisclosed or undiscovered nasties. I’m almost tempted to stick in a 2 1/2 p bid . Pretty sure you’ll get your money back on that whatever happens unless I am missing something .

[goddamitmaverick] 27/8/2022 14:26

Folks on this chat still don’t seem to get it. Forget plans and clean ups and whatever, it’s simple. The Bank does not have sufficient capital. It’s costs are too high Relative to income so it’s losing money every day until that changes. It needs more capital through shareholders or via a takeover or merger.Until then it’s worth wind up value , diminishing book value less costs of wind down so maybe 5-10p depending how quickly and efficiently you close it down . With capital and as a going concern and a decent strategy to profitability it could be worth 20-25p

[cc2014] 24/8/2022 15:07

# 4188

I'll tell a story, it's a true story.

Once upon a time I had a good year on the stock market, a very good year. A good enough year that I had enough money to try something really speculative. The sort of speculative trade I hoped would change my life. I put around 10% of my portfolio on it, using part of my profits from the year knowing that a full out 10% wipe out would still leave me in a good position overall.

A company called Spehere Medical. It was the first purchase Woodford made in his Patient Capital Trust. I researched it, I met the directors and I learnt everything there was to know.

Then I fell in love with it...

I paid 16p. Then it was 10p and a while later 6p and by know you will have heard similar stories before. Only by now the rest of my portfolio was suffering. Still up from the starting position before my great year but now looking significantly off the top.

And now Sphere is 4p. And of course the lack of delivery at Sphere is unfolding and I can see I will be lucky to get back 7p.

Finally I get a grip on reality. My love affair is over. Sold at around 1.5p for a 85% loss.

Someone always has a reason to buy and sell. They might not be sane or rationale or have a good explanation for their trade but there's always someone selling at the bottom or buying at the top and everywhere inbetween.

[dandigirl] 24/8/2022 14:11

It appears that 80,000 were bought yesterday at 3.00 and 100,000 earlier today at 2.99. Sales in smaller amounts of around 25,000 at around 2.75.

Surprised that anyone wanting to sell has left it until now.

[cc2014] 24/8/2022 09:37

I've been watching PCF ever since I sold out some time ago. I keep looking at it but I'm left with two problems:

1. There is insufficient information to make an informed decision
2. Even if I worked out PCF was a screaming buy and I wanted to fill my boots the liquidity has disappeared. Realistically I would want to buy 150k shares as a minimum position and then build from there. The issue is though that even at 150k shares but definintely 300k shares I cannot be comfortable that there will be any liquidity to sell if it turns out I'm wrong. And then there's the spread.

So, I watch and sit on the sidelines, waiting for a trigger to make me buy.

I suspect in normal economic times the directors at PCF would continue to get to grips with the issues, re-establish long term credibility with the PRA and eventually get to a profitable business.

However, we aren't in normal economic times. Impairments are going to start rising over the winter, the cost of funding is increasing and I can't see how the full amount of the additional cost of funding can be passed on to the consumer whilst maintaining the same credit risks.


So, is 3p too high or too low? I have no idea.

[dandigirl] 24/8/2022 08:58

Reverse take over?

It does seem that we will be diluted almost out of existence.

Only numbers we have are the current sp, the injection at 5p and Richardson’s 16.5p NAVPS. My guess is a number between 5p and 16.5p.

The bright side. We could see the end of Moore, Stran and Richardson who have hardly covered themselves in glory since they arrived. They all seem more concerned with process and covering their backsides since they arrived rather than reigniting the business.

And just what is happening to Scott?

[graham1ty] 24/8/2022 08:15

One of the strange things about the London Stock Exchange: they stop trading when there is material uncertainty over the numbers: none of us had a clue what was going on, whether PCF was bust, or had just tripped. It could have been worth zero, or 10p ( roughly where it reopened first time).

Now, when we could be diluted out of existence, or there might be a bid/merger that gives real hope for the future and some material value ( even if part of a larger group), now trading continues though shareholders are completely blind as to the outcome.

It may be zero, it may be shares in a new unlisted vehicle, it may be shares in a listed bank with a bright future.

Or the talks fail, PCF has to be rescued by a massive, dilutive fundraise. And we are wiped out.

A false market as none of us have a clue

[hopespr1ngseternal] 23/8/2022 18:14

The exact words are ‘the remaining commercial terms’ which is not inconsistent with the previous RNS

[goddamitmaverick] 23/8/2022 15:43

Reference of commercials still to be agreed. Previously they said largely agreed.3 months in you might have expected some agreement subject to DD

[cc2014] 23/8/2022 15:23

Yeah but it does sound like Castle have some serious intent rather than sniffing around just because they can.

[dandigirl] 23/8/2022 15:13

Another extension! Strewth!

[cc2014] 23/8/2022 14:57

It sounds like they are getting closer

[goddamitmaverick] 23/8/2022 12:27

Good news tends to be broken early and not so good late. Share price now down 40% from last 5p placement .All buyers are opportunistic , but they are looking at a loss making business with oversized costs and have to price in restructuring . Smaller buyers won’t want to be pulled down.
Further extension and delay until 20 September just announced .

[cc2014] 23/8/2022 11:08

Hmm.

On the first extension the RNS came out at 3:38pm
On the second extension the RNS came out at 9:31am

Anything could happen later

[dandigirl] 23/8/2022 08:30

Looks like discussions have not yielded a deal acceptable to Somers, as yet. Good. Castle appear to be opportunists.

“””;”Such announcement must now be made by Castle not later than 5.00pm on 23 August 2022. This deadline can be extended by the Board of PCF with the consent of the Takeover Panel in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.””””

Agree that Somers should have pressed on.

Maybe they have and that RI will be out before the end of the week?

Note to the Board and Somers. For goodness sake, please demonstrate some progress at something to justify your disproportionate remuneration. Selling on a tiny amount of bad debts doesn’t count.

[goddamitmaverick] 22/8/2022 17:12

Could be brokers who bid PI having to move inventory and cut positions.Eventful week?
Probably more delays, as Rome burns. Could be other potential buyers out there but all takes time investors don’t have. Somers destroying value, they would have done better to put in the capital required to grow to profitability while insisting in cost cuts and then sell from position of strength but guess they lost confidence

[dandigirl] 22/8/2022 08:03

Should be an eventful week but will it?

[cc2014] 19/8/2022 12:02

Volume in £ is so low...

It looks to me like the MM reacting to order flow.

A few buyers averaging down or deciding PCF is worth a punt at this price, but the sellers keep coming. Volume on both sides is small in £ and any sizeable volume could move things fast in either direction.

It's hard to say whether the sellers are frustrated PI's pulled in either by Simon Thompson or ramping on this stock moving on or whether it's a bigger holder dumping but restricted by the low level of buying. If I had to guess it's PI's.