Paysafe Share Discussion Threads

[wolfhound1] 26/7/2017 16:56

I was just looking back at old RNS to see if I could see Blackrock notification it held greater than 3% - no joy so far - anyone else ???

But I also happened to come across disclosure on 11th Dec ( 2 days before the BS spotlight report was released followed by the sustained short attack on the 13th Dec) from Cavalry that its 5.6% holding was going to zero effective from the 15th.

Cavalry of course was the collective name for the CVC funds who had a residual holding due to selling Skrill to PAYS - lucky them they got out just in time hey - and here they are back for another bite of the cherry !!

Like I said - FCA or Class Action suit for "discovery" if this goes for less than 800p !!

[george4064] 26/7/2017 16:49

Thanks for the explanation. And I take it they are only disclosing these because of the likelihood of a takeover in the near future?

My email inbox is getting filled up with 8.3 forms for Paysafe!!

[wolfhound1] 26/7/2017 16:40

George - Anyone holding more than 1% must disclose their holding in full ( long and short positions) and the type of securities - the reason you see so many from the same firms is that their positions are changing daily

here is detail via a link :
hxxp://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/rule8summary.pdf


Has anyone else noticed Blackrock has a really long 17.9mn (3.69%) shares and a short of 0.43% - that is v close to the last reported short of PEPM - I wonder if they are one in the same ?

I can't seem to find where Blackrock disclosed they had gone through the 3% barrier - anyone got a track on that ?

[george4064] 26/7/2017 15:53

Could someone please explain all these form 8.3 announcements?

[eh9] 25/7/2017 18:55

hxxps://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-Paysafes-Ba2-CFR-with-a-stable-outlook-following--PR_370332?amp;WT.mc_id=AM%7eUmV1dGVyc05ld3MyX1NCX0NWX1JhdGluZ19OZXdzX0FsbA%3d%3d%7e20170725_PR_370332

[pshevlin] 25/7/2017 17:23

Changes in forms 8 to today show the following.
Reducing:- State St (-10k) L+G (-82k) FILI (-72k) Aviva (-32k) BlackRock (-10k) Allianz (-400k)
Adding:- Kames (+20k) Alken Luxembourg (+529k) OM (+100k)

To make of it? What you will.

[eh9] 25/7/2017 17:15

They will have customer fund redemptions from time to time

[lomax99] 25/7/2017 16:55

That last OM transaction was a sale of 906.5k shares?

[pshevlin] 25/7/2017 16:48

Old Mutual are topping up as well. 100k since yesterday. What are they up to? Perhaps increasing their voting strength.

[rostam60] 25/7/2017 15:10

In agreement with the recent comments, I decided to top up.

[juzzer100] 25/7/2017 14:35

Thanks for the clarification EH9 and Wolfhound. Appreciate your most knowledgeable posts!

[lomax99] 25/7/2017 13:45

Only 9 trading days left before the TU on August 8th...... Will top-up if this has another dip in the meantime.

[wolfhound1] 25/7/2017 13:42

spot-on EH9 - we get a far better idea of their " not constrained by take-over code rules" view by looking back at what Edison said previously re discount to peers:

Post our estimate upgrades, Paysafe continues to trade at a significant discount to peers: the company is trading at a c 30% discount on an FY17e EV/EBITDA basis and a more than 40% discount on an FY17e P/E basis. While some discount is warranted to reflect the potential risk within the Asia Gateway business, in our view this discount is excessive.

so with Asian Gateway sold they should sit on a level playing field with Peers i.e. 850p per Barclays

[eh9] 25/7/2017 13:08

Some of the other analysts may also be restricted due to involvement of their banks in the bid

[eh9] 25/7/2017 12:45

Edison is paid for research so cannot make any forecasts at the moment. Barclays is the only analyst to have crunched the numbers with the new acquisition: 700p with Asia gateway £850p without

[wolfhound1] 25/7/2017 12:45

cheers Portugull - the absence of any meaningful volume indicates ii's expect a lot more than 590p

[juzzer100] 25/7/2017 12:43

hxxp://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/paysafe287073/full

[juzzer100] 25/7/2017 12:40

Hmm. Edison note just out says valuation reflects active payments M&A market. That doesn't feel great to me!

[portugull] 25/7/2017 12:03

A very compelling post Wolfhound1. I sure hope you are right. Hard to disagree with your thinking.

[wolfhound1] 25/7/2017 11:40

Relax folks this will go a lot higher than 590p in the coming weeks and here is why IMHO :

*

* we have a H1 trading update due on the 8th August and that will tell us the status of YOY growth and revised Debt - I suspect we will have easily beaten expectation of low double digit ( 10.4% used by Edison)

* PAYS bought a US subsidiary and that alone creates a target share price 700p (per Barclays)

* a buyer for Asian Gateway exists - and will do with or without a 3rd party bid - executing on that creates a share price of 850p ( per Barclays) - I am sure JL et co will know who they are

* not to mention OLG in PA looking increasingly likely as a bonus !! Probably now in reams of 1000-1200p in terms of sp

JL et al don't need the consortium for any of the above - so unless consortium post DD are prepared to make an official offer nearer to 800p then likely BOD will reject - execute themselves and move share price north of 800p.

Any subsequent offer will need to be nearer to that number or in excess to stand a reasonable chance IMHO.

Competitors are likely to come in once they have left CVC and Blackstone do the leg-work of the DD and then outbid them - PAYS digital wallet is just too valuable if other competitors like Wirecard/Alipay want to compete with PAYPAL - who knows they might even propose a merger with PAYS similar to Worldpay approach by Vantiv

We are only 3/4 business days since the news broke and it takes time for others to make their move - they may even wait for a formal bid on the 18th August and then trump the consortiums offer - my money is on Wirecard/Alipay joint bid !!

After all they need 75%+ to achieve a take private strategy and at 590p it looks increasingly like they are (as Barclays put it) taking all the upside - that won't sit well with Institutional IM either. Pretty soon I think the share price will move beyond the 590p which after all is not an official offer price - just a floor !!

I think Boadicea nailed it - it is increasingly looking like a one way bet - just need to be patient for a few weeks til the hand plays itself out !!

Don't ya just love a good bidding war :)

GLA

[filmster] 25/7/2017 10:32

That is what i was trying to say malcolm ha i agree

[malcolmmm] 25/7/2017 10:21

I think that the bid price of 590p is constraining the sp, if the bid falls though the share price will rise to around 650p imo taking the recent acquisition into consideration.

[corrientes] 25/7/2017 09:53

Initial impression for me is that this is a done deal. With all the experts here correctly saying why the price is way below what it should be, rather than seeing a share price about 5% above the offer, its trading below it. I wonder why. LOl. Manipulation of the highest order. Enjoy the crumbs off the table.

[rostam60] 25/7/2017 09:46

Rather confusing today. Downward pressure on the price not justifiable. I have look around on the web and can see any reasons for this. Is the bid going to be withdrawn before being official? Someone helping the shorters?

[filmster] 25/7/2017 09:39

Cant see this going much above current share price until this bid goes through or not. Obviously as no one wants to buy above 590p in case the takeover actually happens.