Patisserie Share Discussion Threads

[diku] 21/10/2018 13:50

I say ban this share options across the Plc casino markets...it serves no purpose...insiders are very well fed with a high salary, bonus , expenses, pensions and private health care etc etc etc and possibly a golden goodbye!!...share options are nothing but a freebie icing on the cake...yes a cake freebie!...

[lefrene] 21/10/2018 13:49

Johnwise, I suspect that the numbers passed through various 'screens', the computer said "yes", the fund manager has the computer to justify his decision and just does what the computer tells him to do. No doubt he can say he is 'only obeying orders' and thus hopes to keep his job?

I went into two of these outlets a month apart about two years ago (Gloucester & Cheltenham), and was decidedly underwhelmed by both of them, I hadn't realised it was a listed company and assumed they were franchised outlets. I thought 'poor sods' they must be losing a packet! Each time it was 3:30pm the sort of time for tea and a cake, and yet the places were almost empty. For the numbers to stack up each outlet would need to be taking £200 an hour every trading hour. How the accountant who claims to have visited 30 outlets didn't notice that trade must be way below this level I don't know, but surely if Mr Johnson ever troubled to visit an outlet he would have noticed?

Mr Johnson presumably is fairly bright, he must understand cash flow and margins et al, it seems inconceivable to me that he would not have noticed that the numbers didn't stack up. But then I don't see what he had to gain having sunk so much money into buying 37% of it, by ignoring what was happening? Perhaps hoping he could keep all the plates spinning and sell it on before the cookie crumbled? Or just plain asleep at the wheel?

[johnwise] 21/10/2018 13:02

Do Private investors need to do more homework .. Share price of £4.00 and a PE 23 what was the attraction to hold this coffee shop?

[hpcg] 21/10/2018 12:51

The reason institutions don't monitor boards is that it isn't their money they are losing.

[jonwig] 21/10/2018 09:33

@ bestace - I'm sure they do analyse shop receipts continuously (I guess they can be monitored in real time with epos software), and as the video says, they are pretty proactive in closing underperforming shops. The problem is more likely to lie in the process of banking them.

@ PUG - will be interesting to see the restated numbers and pro forma after cash injection. Agreed the price could be all over the place when dealings restart.

[lefrene] 20/10/2018 20:52

bestace, that's interesting, so is it a lie or just bullsh!t that they monitor on a daily basis? Anyone with the least business acumen monitoring on a daily basis would know very quickly that things were not as advertised. One suspects that all the skeletons have yet to fall out of the proverbial cupboard.

[pugugly] 20/10/2018 20:44

jonwig - Thanks for posting that link Most interesting - Key point made (apart from the fraud) is that EBITDA - based on latest estimates from the company has crashed and the company now burdened by debt is not the cash generating macine it was purported to be - So a massive re-rating - share price will very much depend on what is revealed before re-listing. Could imo be 50% either way from 50p -

[typo56] 20/10/2018 20:29

Hopefully it won't follow the pattern of CVR, where the situation got worse with each announcement.

[bestace] 20/10/2018 20:06

jonwig - not sure I buy that. The annual report includes this statement:

"The key elements of the Group’s control system include... daily review of revenue and staffing at store level along with cash at the Group level by senior management"

That seems pretty clear as to what was supposed to be happening, although it would appear, shall we say, that the control system as stated did not wholly reflect the level of scrutiny that was actually taking place at head office.

Perhaps the full extent of the financial impact is now out in the open and buying at 50p will turn out to be a good investment, but taking that view requires having a lot of faith and/or hope - faith in a discredited management team, hope that none of the many unanswered questions results in further failings coming to light, faith that despite revealed shortcomings in the most basic of financial controls, the company can still be turned around. etc.

[lefrene] 20/10/2018 18:40

That's a thought jonwig, that the daily trading figures were reaching Stonebeach but not Head Office. However if I had a stake in the business the size of that held by Mr Johnson, I would want to see those figures on a regular basis, it seems incredible that he presumably did not, or perhaps was shown false figures?.

As for the value of the company now, it's gone from being unusually profitable for it's type to being debt ridden, and probably not trading anywhere near the levels it previously pretended to. I would think there will be a rush to the exits to salvage what money you can. I would expect the Board to now do a slash and burn job on unprofitable outlets and reduce the number of outlets until they are making genuine profits. Indeed all the basic stuff that they should have been doing before.

[jonwig] 20/10/2018 14:55

@ lefrene - I've a lot of respect for Chris Boxall. If the daytime takings were sent to their trading subsidiary Stonebeach your point wouldn't arise.

Hidden behind the accounts we investors see are subsidiary company accounts. In practice, it's not something private investors look at, nor (it seems) directors! But they should, and auditors should.

The situation is potentially rewarding if the share price starts trading again around 50p, with so much now betting on a rescue and recovery. Thoroughly immoral to buy? Maybe, but folks will do it.

[lefrene] 20/10/2018 14:30

jonwig, fascinating, but that accountant doesn't seem to have been aware that each outlet would have had to be taking something like £2000 everyday to match the figures. But then of course he's an accountant!

Surely each shop must have been sending their figures back each night to head office? If so, and trusting that the shops were sending true figures, then you would know where the business was on a day by day basis. I know pub chains operate like that, bus companies operate like that with each buses takings, so how come this went on so long?

[zoolook] 20/10/2018 12:43

It is not “the job” of an institutional investor to oversee the board. Activism is a choice not a requirement

[jonwig] 20/10/2018 11:15

A very good video, I think:

[edmondj] 20/10/2018 06:28

To me it reads as if the Labour MP is doing capitalists a service, i.e. drawing attention to how business has not delivered on the 1992 Cadbury reforms, poor governance persists, he was making a point of more generic reform needed - nothing to do with 'appointing a new non-exec to CAKE' as the moronic institutional investor suggests. The alternative is a Corbyn/McDonnell, radical hard left government forcing through much else that's worse for investors, if business can't sort itself out.

'Moronic' institutional investor because they weren't doing their overseeing job properly e.g. this board has been too incestuous.

[seangwhite] 20/10/2018 01:21

To take advise from MPs who have taken the UK through the Brexit farce takes some degree of scepticism. We all know how well our MPs understand business and stand in awe of their managing the Brexit process which came from where?

[sefton1] 20/10/2018 00:16

Mr tenpercent - LJ wont be there to share his recent experience. More davidosh BS to try and promote attendance at his conference

[thegreatgeraldo] 19/10/2018 21:42

Hmmmmm...... "“If a new independent director is drafted in now then valuable 'head space' for the execs is taken up on looking back, rather than sorting the issue of getting from A to B...."

Looking back is pretty important, to fathom out how they got to A in the first place & what it's actually like......

[mrtenpercent] 19/10/2018 11:54

@davidosh -
On which day is the CAKE panel?
Is Graham Neary speaking at the conference, if so when?
Thanks

www.cakequestions.blogspot.com

[zoolook] 19/10/2018 08:01

I’ve not been to one, but Mello is a uniquely large event organised by investors for investors. I would say on an investor forum it qualifies as informing rather than spamming.

In the context of the prolific trolling, ramping and unpleasantness of so many posts it is a beacon of positiveness.

[typo56] 19/10/2018 06:52

Tesco had to compensate shareholders for the misstatement of 29th Aug 2014, which was corrected the following month.

The situation here looks a lot worse. If Tesco shareholders were compensated for management lies, surely shareholders should be here? I somehow doubt they will be, not even a few PatVal vouchers.

[sefton1] 19/10/2018 02:03

davidosh is just spamming ADVFN forums with posts promoting his conferences.

[davidosh] 18/10/2018 21:54

At our next big investor conference #MelloLondon as there are hundreds if not thousands of private individual shareholders in PV we will have a panel session totally dedicated to CAKE...A forensic accountant, auditor, institutional investor & member of @ShareSocUK will look at all the facts available right up to the day of the event

We have also invited @LukeJohnsonRCP (or any member of the board) to share with us what he can as he is known to speak at investor events so he will surely want to help investors understand what has happened...