Parkmead Share Discussion Threads

[planetgong] 09/11/2019 12:14

Hi Robs, many thanks for that info especially the GPA timeline...extremely helpful.
I always have SotB's report of Cross' comment in my mind; (from the LSE board)
"GPA is a one way bet..."

[tournesol] 08/11/2019 16:22

Planetgong

I've sent you a private message.

T

[robs12] 08/11/2019 16:19

And a reminder of what it could be worth if anyone needs it (from a previous post):

Greater Perth Area (GPA) - they now have 100% of Perth, Dolphin, Lowlander, Polecat and Marten, as well as 30% of Athena which was producing but shut in in 2016 when the oil price crashed.

If the GPA is developed (and it is still an 'if' but it has been and is central to PMG's strategy for many years) it will open access to:

1) Perth and Dolphin (PMG 100%) - discoveries, appraised by 17 wells, recoverable and contingent resources of approx. 104 MMBoe. Estimated 498MMBbls total oil in place for all of Perth field.
2) Lowlander (PMG 100%) - (a discovery, appraised by 5 wells, with 21.4 MMBoe 2C)
3) Polecat and Marten (PMG 100%) - Polecat discovered 2005, appraised 2010, appraisal well flowed at 4,373 bbls/day. Marten discovered 1984, three oil bearing sandstones. Together estimated 90MMBoe in place, and 33MMBoe 2C, close to Verbier (15% Jersey O&G) as an aside.

So approx. 160MMBoe 2P & 2C in discovered oil fields, 100% owned by PMG (currently!).

With a high probability that these figures will increase dependent on improved recovery rate - PMG undertook a study through AGR to model potential fracture stimulation of the above reservoirs, which concluded (at least to the extent that has been announced publicly to date) - "New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project's oil recovery factor".

A few years back, Senergy estimated 24% recovery rate for Perth, when 2P was given as 41.3MMBbls. Charles Stanley had to say about it: "For Phase 1, our economic valuation assumes a recovery rate of 24% (based on the Senergy 2P estimates). We expect the actual recovery rate to vary from this current best estimate, perhaps materially because there is quite a bit of uncertainty, in our opinion, relating to the distribution of higher quality sands within the heterogeneous Claymore reservoir. Recovery estimates for the Claymore and Scapa fields, which also produce from Claymore sands, increased over time to 40% and 56% respectively (according to the operator Talisman Energy's most recent publicly available estimates)."

But if the GPA area is opened up and the facilities allow sour oil production, then the entire area (the "sour crescent", some 30km radius of Perth/Scott) is estimated to hold some 950MMBoe of stranded oil in discovered but undeveloped fields. Maybe more undiscovered. That is some prize!

Add to this the possibility of bringing Athena back on line (PMG 30%, and Jersey O&G 15%, with Ithaca as operator, and is just outside the 30km radius) with estimated 26MMBBL proven and probable according to Sproule 2012).
TC has previously stated that this is a possibility - In the Press and Journal, dated Nov 19 2016: "Mr Cross said: "If you've got the choice, it makes sense not to produce oil when the price is on the slide. Some companies have to produce oil even at a loss if they are sitting on debt, because banks want to see cash flow, but we are debt-free." He added the Athena shut-in would continue while Parkmead looks at ways of incorporating the field into its Perth area cluster, one of the largest un-developed oil projects in the North Sea. And he said Parkmead was "right in the middle of engineering talks" to bring together the various fields that make up the area."


GLA!

[robs12] 08/11/2019 15:59

Thought it might be interesting to summarize the PMG GPA timeline to see how things have progressed, the below all from PMG interim and finals announcements:

24 March 2017:

“Perth and Dolphin are at the core of Parkmead’s Greater Perth Area (GPA) oil hub project which has been fully appraised, with a combined total of 17 wells drilled, and has expected recoverable reserves and contingent resources of approximately 104 million barrels of oil”

17 November 2017:

“Greater Perth Area (“GPA”) invitation to tender announced to the service provider market, covering the pre-FEED, FEED and subsequent development phases of the project”
“13 alliance submissions received from 35 companies across all project components of drilling, subsea construction and export route options”
“In discussions with a number of leading, international service companies and oil companies”
“Parkmead has received financial proposals for significant parts of the development, reducing the capital expenditure needed to bring the project onstream”

29 March 2018:

“Parkmead now in full control of the GPA oil hub project with operatorship and 100% equity”
“Agreement signed with Nexen Petroleum, a subsidiary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), to undertake a detailed engineering study for the potential subsea tie-back of the GPA project to the Nexen-operated Scott facilities in the Central North Sea”

16 November 2018:

“Engineering study confirmed the technical feasibility of a tie-back of the GPA project to the Scott facilities”
“Parkmead has entered into commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership in order to explore terms for a tie-back of GPA to Scott”
“New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project’s oil recovery factor”

29 March 2019:

“Parkmead has entered into commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership, led by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) International, in order to explore terms for a tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (“GPA”) oil hub project to the Scott facilities”
“Parkmead also holding discussions with a number of leading, internationally-renowned service companies in relation to the GPA project”
“A tie-back to Scott is one path to potentially unlock the substantial value of the GPA project”

4 April 2019 – From the OGA Current Projects page, updated by PMG:

“Project Summary

The Perth development is located in block 15/21C in the Outer Moray Firth. The initial Core Perth development will comprise up to five production and two water injection wells (phased) tied back via a dedicated manifold. The chosen development concept is now a subsea tie-back to the nearby Scott platform, which is circa 10.45km away. The project is scheduled to get OGA approval to go in to FEED in April 2019. FID is planned for Q4 2019 with 1st hydrocarbons currently planned for 1H 2022. We are currently executing a number of scopes with our chosen engineering contractors. We are not looking for any additional support from the supply chain at this time.”


So it's actually only a year ago that it was deemed technically feasible, and they started commercial discussions.

Hoping (as always!) for some more concrete news next week.

EDITED to add a couple more snippets from the PMG website - Both from Energy Voice Articles reproduced on the PMG site (so I assume PMG agree with them!):

1 April 2019:

"Parkmead hopes to recover 193 million barrels of oil from GPA."

"While using existing infrastructure would help keep costs down, the possibility of bringing in a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel has not been ruled out.Mr Cross said it was possible to get “some good deals on FPSOs” in the current market.He added: “The advantage of an FPSO is that you can move it. If you’ve drained one field you can move the vessel onto another one.”

31 August 2019:

"Parkmead intends to develop GPA as a tie-back to the Scott platform..."
"A final investment decision is slated for spring 2020"

[robs12] 08/11/2019 15:01

Planetgong, I am not expecting much from the results TBH. They may have had a small increase in production from NL (though see below), but that will likely be more than offset by the much lower TTF price.

For me the results are not very important at all, they will be what they will be but largely irrelevant - it's the other news (or lack of it, maybe) which will be more significant.

The NL gas is a minor factor in the PMG story IMHO. It generates a little cash inflow, but is not worth much at the end of the day. PG valued it at ~2p/share a couple of years ago:

hxxps://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/Panmure_Gordon_Research_07.02.2018.pdf

TTF gas prices:



As far as I can see there are no new NL wells that we have a stake in.

Vermillion's latest news reference Q3 says:
"In the Netherlands, Q3 2019 production averaged 7,429 boe/d, a decrease of 17% from the prior quarter. The decrease was primarily due to a planned turnaround and unexpected downtime to repair a gas compressor, which extended the length of the turnaround. The combined impact was a reduction in Netherlands production of approximately 1,200 boe/d in Q3 2019. Our facilities have returned to service and production has been restored. We are currently in the process of drilling the Weststellingwerf well (0.5 net), representing our first drilling activity in the Netherlands since 2017, and we expect drilling to be completed before the end of the year."

Don't know where the downtime was - may or may not have impacted on the wells we have a stake in, let's hope not.

For the future, they (Vermillion) say:
"Our 2020 E&D budget in the Netherlands of $18 million represents a 22% decrease from 2019. While significant progress has been made on our permitting efforts, we will plan for modest growth in the Netherlands in 2020 as we reschedule our slate of capital projects in the context of a lower corporate growth rate target. We plan to drill or participate in three (0.6 net) wells. Assuming success on the Weststellingwerf well (0.5 net) currently being drilled, we plan to bring this well on production during the first half of 2020. We will continue to advance our well permitting throughout the year in order to compile a backlog of projects for implementation beginning in 2021."

Nothing exciting there for us by the looks of it (and 2 of the 3 planned wells are already announced not on our playgrounds..).

GLA!

[planetgong] 08/11/2019 11:58

Hi robs, a good point but although posters have been waiting in vain, I do feel that things are moving with regard to GPA as although a decision seems to have been put back from Q4 to spring 2020 I am hopeful of some sort of update soon. I think they said that technical stuff had been done so presumably its a pure money negotiation now between a few parties.
The fly in the ointment is that the results might be poor with low guidance as well which is what both tournesol and fardels seem to think (any expansion on their thoughts would be much appreciated by me at least). As another thought although Cross spending his own money is one thing, involving your friends is a bit different.

[robs12] 08/11/2019 08:24

And before that increase his average buy-in price for the 19% he held was ~70p.

[planetgong] 07/11/2019 19:23

The crucial thing to me is that Cross and close associates upped his shareholding from 19% to 26% at a nominal price of 50.8p per share. That is one serious director buy. The implication is quite clear. Cross is very very confident that the share price in 12 months time will be much, much higher than it is now.

[chutes01] 07/11/2019 15:08

the chart is indicating the results will be positive next week, the recent work being done on the scott platform for gpa development suggests a tariff deal has been agreed with cnooc, which eliminates the need to hire a fpso, so the field comes online, probably 2021 at a lower rate but field life will be 15 years.
skerryvore is extremely valuable so watch out for that, and the build up of the renewables sector - thats the hot topic, its the future of aberdeen - as a global energy hub leader.
pmg are well placed, they just need good leadership - tc might make this quite a business

[fardels bear] 07/11/2019 07:58

There is that, of course.

[tongostl] 07/11/2019 07:05

Why if I had a penny for every time Chutes had predicted incoming news I'd be richer than Mrs Cross herself.

[fhmktg] 06/11/2019 23:28

Now you have my attention.....you tease!

[fhmktg] 06/11/2019 16:36

With the trading update?

[chutes01] 06/11/2019 14:46

Update on GPA next week

[fardels bear] 05/11/2019 22:57

Look on the three year chart..

[tournesol] 05/11/2019 22:36

How on earth can you describe the chart as showing hints of a double bottom?

I see nothing of the kind.

[fhmktg] 05/11/2019 12:15

Look forward to it Chutes; hint of a double bottom on the chart, time for a break out upwards ahead of the results next week?

[chutes01] 05/11/2019 09:48

will post before weekend

[fhmktg] 05/11/2019 08:38

A flurry of activity early doors...looks like somebody bought early then changed their mind?Any news from the rigs Chutes?

[rickyvader] 04/11/2019 22:33

LOL , fairly confident of a 200+% rise.

[fardels bear] 04/11/2019 22:08

I think it may well dip a bit on results. Dutch gas prices not been very good of late. After that I think it will go up.

[tongostl] 04/11/2019 20:44

I'm back in. Fairly confident the next 12 months will offer a 200%+ return. GPA, Platypus, Wind Farm development and a production expansion in the Netherlands will boost the companys valuation here over the next year.

[11_percent] 01/11/2019 12:02

Sp ticking up a bit.......sill some very low volumes....lets see what the results say.....