Paragon Entertainment Share Discussion Threads

[ramas] 07/12/2015 19:04

I have been doing some research but I am struggling to see the opportunity here , what am i missing ? –
PEL has a track history of net losses even at a recent revenue peak in 2014 at £10m / 0.53p loss per share. I see gross profit compression from 30% to 20% over 4 years results so its a competitive environment – maybe explaining the ‘take it or leave it’ framework for the deal with Hamleys.
The big problem are PEL admin costs which needs some serious attention. I didnt see if contracts are open or closed book deals but the relative GP consistency over the years implies formal or informal open book approach.
PJ you mention that with the Hamleys good news turnover might reach the dizzy heights of £10m but to me this means more losses unless they can hit 40-50% GP margins and control admin costs aggressively. I also note 14 million of additional share dilution in the last year which will likely continue to keep insiders happy ?
To justify todays share price of 2.5p on a pe of 10 would require £467k profit after tax (or 0.25p eps) – applying some metrics to current data suggests £20m turnover minimum. For PEL to rise on fundamentals turnover would need to be much much higher – say 300% – is this really a possibility ?
Seems very early stage with risk and potentially a lobster pot if you own in size (like another favourite of mine AEO but paying a 10% yield). I have no doubt Paragons customers love the work they do and given a few years this could translate into bottom line profits and maybe a dividend – I will keep observing and wish holders good luck

[pj 1] 04/12/2015 18:44

Plenty on the Trains home will be reading todays Hamley news



Hamleys hires theme park specialist to spruce up stores
JOANNA BOURKE 5 hours ago0 comments




5
Wallace and Gromit
Getting animated: Hamleys' new collaborator has worked on the Wallace and Gromit ride at Blackpool Pleasure Beach Aardman
The new owner of Hamleys is wasting no time in revamping the 255-year-old toy shops chain, with plans unveiled for new theme-park entertainment in its stores.

Hamleys is partnering with a design-and-build specialist, who has worked on projects including the Wallace and Gromit ride at Blackpool Pleasure Beach.

A five-year agreement with Yorkshire-based Paragon Entertainment will help create attractions and interactive experiences across some of the London-founded toy giant’s 62 shops.

Hamleys ventured into the retail and attractions business in March when it opened a new shop in Moscow, featuring a go-karting track and full-scale replica of the Millennium Falcon made famous in Star Wars.

Paragon’s boss Mark Pyrah said the concept “has an incredible and sizable future worldwide”.


READ MORE
Hamleys Toy Parade delights families in Regent Street
Chinese footwear company C.banner bought the British toys institution for £100 million from the UK arm of French toys group Ludendo last month.

Hamleys said the attractions add opportunities for “even more excitement” when visiting its stores.

[themadstork] 04/12/2015 09:53

Excellent news. Although they were restricted in terms of exactly what they could say here, if one does some digging (as PJ as done above) then one can see this deal is absolutely huge for Paragon going forward.

[pj 1] 04/12/2015 09:21

IMO. Moscow was rumoured to be circa £750k to £1m. So from above its easy to see possible £10 million turnover for PEL to have first choice (over a number of years) from the framework agreement.

That could be just the tip of the iceberg if Hamley's franchising model continues to work. All IMO.

[pj 1] 04/12/2015 09:16

edit- add Prague to the above, unsure if works have actually started though.

[pj 1] 04/12/2015 09:13

Hamley's have plans for new stores in New York, LA,CHicago, Malaga,South Africa,Vietnam,Mexico. The new owners of Hamley's C.Banner have mentioned poss 3 stores in China. Malaga is rumoured to be the largest in mainland Europe.

Overall Hamley's have plans for x50 new stores (although some are to be airport shops)

C.Banner'' (Hamley's) purchase is but one part for strategy for international expansion and business diversification''

[1savvyinvestor] 04/12/2015 08:32

I'm in. Very good news. I don't think this is a case of sell the news. Pretty sure there is more to come here

[phowdo] 04/12/2015 07:37

Fantastic to see the crew securing longterm work relationship with Hamleys.

[pj 1] 02/12/2015 15:54

It seems so. Hopefully a small number of shares changing hands a number of times with the bulk of holdings in more secure and long term hands.

Anyone going to the AGM?

[dontsweatit] 01/12/2015 17:51

It seem to me traders buying and selling is making volatile share price. Investors looking long term will be holding or waiting for news to make a decision on. like most I hope some news is not far away but we waited very long time for 2014 results.there has been some good reserch posted here which is good so do not get me wrong as someone said this whole sector seems very busy with big plans for many fun parks and shopping malls.

[themadstork] 01/12/2015 15:23

Excellent to see this move sustained. I think once 2016 is confirmed as a strong recovery we should be able to leave the disappointments of the last 2 years behind.

[themadstork] 30/11/2015 21:18

It would appear so. The potential market in the UAE for Paragon's services is growing and I'm sure the company will take advantage.

[pj 1] 30/11/2015 20:18

Looks like this project is back on then

[pelboss] 30/11/2015 19:43

Main Parks in UAE...
IMG
Mattel Largest FEC
Motion Gate
Six Flags
Universal Studios (soon!)
Sony
Lego
Bollywood
Lionsgate
Warner Brothers
Fox Studios
and 5 others we know of!

[themadstork] 30/11/2015 14:30

Interesting. Yes, I definitely think the market is missing Dubai potential and the prospect of further business there.

[pj 1] 30/11/2015 13:45

Unsure if PEL have won any works for IMG Dubailand at all but there is some mention of Dubai Park and obvious competition

Of more importance I think is the fact the concept can be copied and is being planned for roll put in other areas (geographies?). This recurring them seems prevailant with the big players at the moment.
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Dubai’s delayed IMG Worlds of Adventure theme park to open early 2016
The installation of the 69 state-of the-art dinosaur in the Lost Valley – Dinosaur Adventure zone, marks one of the final stages of completion for the theme park. Courtesy IMG
Dubai’s delayed IMG Worlds of Adventure theme park to open early 2016
Lucy Barnard

November 30, 2015 Updated: November 30, 2015 05:34 PM


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Dubai’s IMG Worlds of Adventure has pushed back its planned opening date to early 2016, about two years after it completed the steel frame of the main building in the theme park.

The park that is set to feature Marvel comic heroes has appointed Lennard Otto, the former general manager of Al Ain’s Wadi Adventure, as its new chief executive.

Mr Otto, who is being promoted from his previous role of general manager, will be the park’s first chief executive. He joined the company in April after working at Wadi Adventure for five years.

The planned 1.5 million square feet theme park is located in Dubailand on the outskirts of Dubai.

The company agreed a Dh1.2 billion syndicated loan to build the park in April last year.

In August 2013, the park owners Ilyas & Mustafa Galadari (IMG) Group said that it had completed the giant dome-shaped steel roof skeleton and the park was scheduled to open in early 2014. The date was subsequently revised to late 2014 and then 2015.

In a statement, the company said: “IMG Worlds of Adventure has evolved from being a 1.2 million sq ft project, when it was first announced, to being a colossal 1.5 million sq ft containing four zones: Marvel; Cartoon Network; Lost Valley – Dinosaur Adventure; and IMG Boulevard. The IMG Worlds of Adventure offering has been substantially expanded and, as is natural with a project of this scale and size, construction times have adjusted accordingly.”

IMG said that the scope of the project had been increased to include 28 food outlets and 25 shops. The number of parking spaces was also doubled to 4,500, while the ride mix was also increased.

Disney acquired Marvel in 2009, after IMG bought the rights to use Marvel characters as a theme for its rides.

Designed as the first phase of its ambitious City of Arabia scheme, which was also to include a 4 million sq ft shopping mall, the park was originally due to open in 2011.

The delay is likely to put IMG Worlds of Adventure in competition with Dubai Parks & Resorts’ 25 million sq ft theme park complex which is currently being developed in Jebel Ali and which is also due to open next year.

Last week Dubai Parks reported that it had completed 50 per cent of construction work at the mega-complex, which it opened to media for a sneak preview.

IMG said that in his new role, Mr Otto will oversee the strategic vision, direction and operational leadership of the park and spearhead its future development both in the UAE and overseas.

“As the first world-class theme park in Dubai to open next year, we will offer our guests an interactive and immersive entertainment experience,” Mr Otto said. “I am also excited for the future development of the park as I believe we have a highly replicable model that we can look to take into a global space in the future.”

Phil Taylor, managing director at Team Leisure, said: “IMG found itself at the front of the queue to build the first major theme park in Dubai. If a theme park ticks all the boxes and provides good family entertainment, then people can become loyal very quickly and IMG seems in danger of losing first-mover advantage.”

[themadstork] 28/11/2015 23:24

I personally am expecting £12m for 2016. As you say, the missed £1m just rolls over into next year, and the stated target for growth is 20%. Original target for this year was £10m.

[dontsweatit] 28/11/2015 21:05

So they miss 2015 target by £1m, but work not gone away, so 2o16 target has to be £11m turnover minimum or self broker would have to downgrades 2016 prediction. but they have not.thats 22% growth guaranteed and move to eps positive imo

[cautoussid] 27/11/2015 10:30

looks likes at last may be moving back up , up around 10% today ,good to see for the patient holders who may be holding from above 6p ,

[cautoussid] 27/11/2015 09:57

grantlfc , now looking strong , next week may see a nice move with this share price ,looking like more people;e who may have been watching this share price falling so much now moving in before the podcast

[grantlfc] 27/11/2015 09:52

Looking strong. Mad stork called it well

[cautoussid] 27/11/2015 08:57

more buyers moving in this morning again , people look to be taking up shares before the podcast

[themadstork] 26/11/2015 14:57

Everything is out there if people look hard enough.

I think things should be more explicit soon though. I know the guys want to have something to talk about on ther podcast on Dec 9th.