Pan African Resources Share Discussion Threads

[topazfrenzy] 05/2/2018 13:44

The price is getting silly here

[macc2] 05/2/2018 09:39

In today's Telegraph - an extract from a short article about Randgold and its Kibali mine in DR Congo. the development of its Kibali mine in DR Congo has been completed and that it is on track to ramp up production to 700,000 ounces of gold this year. However, last week the Central African country set new higher tax rates on gold, prompting Randgold boss Mark Bristow to warn that controversial changes to Congo's mining code could cripple its economy.

Doesn't read like good news for a potential purchase in DR Congo by PAF

[coxsmn] 04/2/2018 18:48

Elikhulu cost of $123m US through last year's share placing etc. Production of 56,000 ounces per annum for the first 8 yrs then 45,000 ounces for the remaining 5 years.

So for 2019 should yield ~32% increase in gold production compared to the forecast for this year. The possible acquisition announced recently could obviously offer further upside.

[mafia music] 04/2/2018 13:00

how much will Elikhulu production have an effect on the eps for the coming period?

[coxsmn] 03/2/2018 19:14

Big drop in earnings although they remain positive and results are expected to be improved for the next reporting period. There was a large investment made last year in Elikhulu which is yet to contribute to the bottom line. Starting early next year Paf expects Elikhulu to produce 50,000 ounces of gold per annum for the next 13 years.

Hence we could see a significant improvement here in the medium term and the recent 'cautionary' rns highlights news of a possible acquisition.

Dyor.

[fangorn2] 03/2/2018 19:03

Yes I know that Cox but societal collapse from NO WATER will spread as desperate people migrate to whether there is water - and they wont be asking politely but simply taking. And we all know how that ends.

I've seen starvation,and how it changes people. Water scarcity is even worse

Very worrying development.

Add that to the daily murdering of White farmers across Sarf Africa and you have a powder keg waiting to blow.

[coxsmn] 03/2/2018 18:55

Fan,The water crisis is in the Western Cape stretching to the Eastern Cape. The PAF mines are all up north in summer rainfall areas (Barberton) and no water crisis in the old Transvaal.

[haywards26] 03/2/2018 16:57

I used to be a holder here, believing at 13p the company was undervalued and looking for 20p+. I decided to sell out a few months ago at around the same price I bought in at due to the 2 main reasons below.

1) RNS announcements. Were/are written very poorly. The layouts of financial information is clumsy and unclear. Poor and unclear information points to poor management...

2) Politics - both local and regional. The recent labour rally's and protests have obviously had an impact on production and the business. Nationally SA's political landmark is highly unstable.

I see PAF as high risk, with better gold miners in the sector. I hold HGM

[justiceforthemany] 02/2/2018 22:48

Remember that is just for H1 and H2 is expected to be better. Full year EPS could still come in around 0.6p with Elikhulu adding 25% to production from around September. ASA deal could also be a stimulus.

[stonefold] 02/2/2018 21:30

The earnings per share were 0.93p
At the share price of 14p gave a Price Earnings ratio of 15.0

Due to the forecast drop in PE of between 70 to 90 %
The expected earnings per share would be 0.093p to 0.279p
At the current share price of 10p that gives a Price Earnings ratio of
35.8 to 107.5 (which is high)

To get back to a comfortable PE of 15.0 either:
they have to fix the problems and get earning back up
or the share price will need to settle down to become between 1.4p to 4.2p

[macthepak] 02/2/2018 19:26

No reason for the price fall today, other then MMs drumming up business. Buys out number sells approximately 2:1. No reason for the price fall based on demand/supply of PAF shares.

[mafia music] 02/2/2018 19:25

i have owned in the past and thought the management have a very good track record.
decent steady company but the sector its in it does add risk.. but it has been pretty stable with an average share price of around 14 roughly if im correct


at the current price its below the 5 year average share price which sounds like a bargain.
pe of 7.65


this below does sound too good.

'The overall production cost per kilogram jumped up 27% to roughly ZAR 430,863, as the average price of gold slipped marginally lower to ZAR 542,773.'

at what margin does the sites become not feasible ?

[chipperfrd] 02/2/2018 13:18

As the world price of gold is fixed by the paper exchanges n the west (Comex and LBMA) and as the US$ has fallen significantly over the last year, the Gold price in ZAR terms has fallen c. 2,500 ZAR since Nov 2017 (ie from c. 18,500 to 16,000 per oz). Clearly this has hit PAF and other SA producers who have their costs in ZAR.

The question therefore becomes "how long will this situation continue?"

No obvious answer from me on that question. But given the enormous debt growth worldwide and the very probable diminishing of the US hegemony and the use of the US$ as the world reserve currency, it would appear likely that both growth in gold sales and reduction in western control of the gold price will eventually improve the fortunes of stocks like PAF.

But as one could have used that argument for many years now it would be gross folly to make any prediction on when things might improve.

From my point of view, the stock has become even more undervalued and it is therefore worth continuing to add given the high probability (IMHO) that another financial crisis gets ever closer.
Chip

[topazfrenzy] 02/2/2018 12:02

yes it is a guess at $2000 but it will happen next meltdown, even $3500 by 2020

[mafia music] 02/2/2018 11:48

well its had a massive sell off.

and to say gold will be $2000 in 2019 is a massive speculation

[topazfrenzy] 02/2/2018 11:47

juuunx, as a rule I always buy in chunks rather than in one go when drops like this happen.

[juuunx2] 02/2/2018 10:42

Agreed topa good medium to long term prospects once production back up etc. Was gonna add below 10p but now looking for 8p. We will see, I may miss the boat....story of my life lol

[topazfrenzy] 02/2/2018 10:35

Happy to hold and add on weakness, this should recover strongly once production is ramped up, if some ASA assets are bought on the cheap, which they probably will, it could get a sudden shot in the arm.

$2000 gold price not out of the question in 2019. Imagine the share price then!

[juuunx2] 02/2/2018 10:06

Could be heading circa nav around 8p I'm holding off for now

[valuehunter1] 01/2/2018 20:38

Well come back home and check the portfolio and find out about this 8.22am RNS to my disbelief!!! Only bought in yesterday but still think these are good value but they really do need to start delivering a few solid quarters to regain some confidence and for value to out. I'll be holding on but not happy about the timing of the RNS at all, they should have released the update along with the interims, together with an update on ASA.

[mafia music] 01/2/2018 17:45

and also people saying this will pop at some point

the highest it traded in the past 5 years was 24.25 in Aug 2016

and in the passed 5 years the share price has been pretty flat

[mafia music] 01/2/2018 17:40

well might be best to wait till the Interim Results Presentation 13 February 2018?

what cash reserves do they have ? and what debt?

[astjgroom] 01/2/2018 15:32

I agree with you, it's not if, but when. Loathed to buy more of the but would like to average down.